Forecasting Research On The Rural Elderly Population And Demand For Security

At present, the aging of the population has become a worldwide problem, particularly acute challenges facing China. Especially in a huge number of the elderly, the elderly in rural areas account for70%.With the social and economic development, China’s aging population has brought increasingly heavy burden of the pension. China’s aging problem shows the characteristics of the big absolute number of the elderly groups, the rapid increase in scale and proportion of the total population. Located in the west of China, Shaanxi’s economic and social development level is not high, and the old-age security issues have become increasingly prominent in the elderly population in rural areas, which has become the major constraints in harmonious development in rural Shaanxi. Hereby, it’s of great practical significance to discover and build effective pension system in such a less developed province. By predicting the number of elderly people and the elderly pension fund requirements in rural areas in Shaanxi Province, this dissertation is aimed to provide policy supports for establishing a rural social old-age security system. With the scientific development concept as a guide, this research hopes to make local exploration for the rural old-age security and contribution to the sustainable and harmonious development for rural society.Using a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods, demography, social security theory and public policy theory as the theoretical basis, the study integrates the statistical population method, comparative analysis, population forecasting models with empirical research methods, and explores into the status of rural elderly population in Shaanxi, the scale trend, the capital of the old-age security needs and funding gaps. The basic structure of the study is as following:Firstly, it introduces the research background of the Shaanxi elderly population demand for old-age security; Secondly, with brief historical retrospective and review of Shaanxi rural old-age security system as the entry point, the paper finds its the logical starting point; Thirdly, based on the quantity characteristics of the elderly population in rural areas, it makes the analysis of the urban-rural differences in the population number and the age structure; According to the2010census data sequence, using the predictive models of population size, the study has made predictions aboux the development of the rural population in Shaanxi Province in2020-2050, described the development tendency of the elderly population size and structure, and put forward the rural elderly population dependency ratio coefficient; Fourthly, with the survey data of the rural elderly people by sex, age, source of livelihood, and the extended linear expenditure model, it has estimated the minimum security requirements and basic security needs of Shaanxi rural elderly population per capita, and predicted the total demand; Finally, the study makes systematic comparison and reference by exploring into the rural population status, the stage, model, features of development of rural endowment insurance in industrialized countries. To sum up, this research has raised rural old-age policy recommendations in five aspects:the construction of policy and legal system, the construction of moral culture, carry-forward of the traditional culture of filial piety, the innovation of types of home care model in rural community service, and improvement of commercial pension insurance.1. The aging process of Shaanxi rural population will accelerate with the decrease of the proportion of the rural population. Influenced by birth cohort size change, the degree of aging in rural Shaanxi will be significantly higher than that of the urban, and the number increase size of the elderly will exceed any other age interval. The income sources of the rural elderly are mainly concentrated in the family support of other members and their retirees with significant gender and age differences.2. There is a large gap between the need of the minimum living security and basic living security and the amount of the basic pension of the new agricultural insurance provisions can afford. The total amount of the minimum living security and basic living security that the population aging60or older demand has maintained a rapid growth since2011.They will touch35.197billion yuan and39.421billion yuan in2030, and45.333billion yuan and50.241billion yuan in2050respectively. From the minimum living standard security demands, the minimum living security needed2502.99yuan in2010, and the basic security2949.43yuan, equivalent to a monthly minimum living allowance of208yuan, and the basic livelihood guarantee of245yuan. Obviously, the disparity between the basic pension amount the new farmer’s insurance supports and the minimum living security and basic living security is relatively large.3. The rural old-age security system should be established and improved with financial support. The guarantee of rural pension insurance system operation depends on public finance investment. At the same time, Chinese traditional culture should carried forward to strengthen rural family pension security. Rural old-age security system can not be completely divorced from the role of family pension and land protection. It should be established based on social old-age security, supplemented by family pension and other forms of rural old-age pension systems. Shaanxi rural pension system needs to be innovated. It must be co-ordinated from the county level to provincial level to increase the funds ability in risk diversification.Based on the previous study, the dissertation tries to innovate in the following aspects:1. With a systematic analysis of the change of Shaanxi rural pension system, interpretation and evaluation of the effects of former and present farmer’s insurance policies, and contrast with international rural old-age security systems, the research has extracted rich experiences and highly targeted development ideas, which may be revelatory to Shaanxi and other less developed western provinces.2. Existing studies usually make direct system design, and forecast the social security pension demands through pension simulation. This study has dissolved the problem. When rural old-age security system is designed, the structure of the elderly population is analyzed, then the prediction gained based on demographic conditions, which as a result will be more conducive and persuasive to system design. In the system of the thesis, the demographic, social security, policy analysis and other methods are used comprehensively to forecas the future security needs and to design Shaanxi old pension institution.