Study On The Demand Of Shaanxi Rural Social Endowment Insurance

With the social and economic development, China's aging population has brought increasingly heavy pension burden, under the existing rural social endowment insurance system, rural residents pension issue has become a social problem, At the same time, as the increasing age population in rural areas, the rural families bear increasingly heavy family burden, the family values changed,the family planning have effective implemented, all that have impacted the traditional family providing for the aged. In this paper, predicted the number of elderly people in rural areas of Shaanxi Province as well as the basic endowment insurance needs of the elderly, whitch can provide policy basis for setting up and improving social endowment insurance system for rural residents.In this paper, from the principles to defined the concept system of the needs of rural social endowment insurance, and on this basis, built the theory of gray system model, calculated the number of elderly people in rural areas in Shaanxi Province from 2009 to 2030, Then, use of extended linear expenditure model (ELES) to predict per capita the elder security demand of rural residents in Shaanxi Province. Through the above two sets of projections, and thus calculate the total demand for old-age insurance; combined with social survey data, analyze the current living conditions of older rural residents in Shaanxi Province and the farmers'attitude to the trial of the pension insurance system。Through analyze the data from above models to predict and the questionnaire; the following major conclusions can be drawn:Rural family provide old-age is weakening, with he progressive introduction of family planning and urbanization, more and more rural youth people move out of rural areas, rural structure, family structure has changed dramatically, the elderly get less maintenance fee with the losses of children; the aging situation of Shaanxi rural residents is grim in future from 205.3399 million in 2009 increased to 283.0648, with an increase of 37.85 percent; while rural residents demand for old-age insurance increased faster, per capita the elder security for rural residents from 2008 to 2072.26 yuan up to 2030 17,730.19 yuan, with an increase of 755.58 percent. At the same time, due to the current rural social endowment insurance system is not implemented absolutely, rural old-age insurance are relatively lower than urban. Than put forward relevant proposals based above data analysis.