| Grain is fundamental to human survival and development, and food security is essential for people’s livelihood and social stability, and food problem has been one of the hottest issues of global concern. With the increasing number of China’s population and the rapid economic development, people’s demand for the quantity and quality of food has been continually growing, so the current and future’s primary goal of agriculture is to ensure food supply. Rice is the most important grain crop in China. Its total acreage, total yield and yield per unit area have long been in the top of the grain crops of the country. Rice is also in a dominant position in the grain production and consumption. Jiangsu Province is one of the leading production and high-yielding provinces in rice. Generally, the total yield of rice in Jiangsu province accounts for about60%of the province’s total grain yield and about10%of the country’s total rice yield, ranking front across the country. The total acreage of rice accounts for about40%of the province’s grain acreage and about7%of the country’s rice acreage, also ranking front across the country. The yield per unit area of rice ranks first among the main producing provinces. Rice in Jiangsu Province occupies an extremely important position in both the province’s grain production and country’s rice production. Its sustainable and healthy development is of great significance to the guarantee of food security and the promotion of incomes of rice farmers.Since the reform and opening up, the total rice yield had showed a significant downward trend in China’s southeast coastal provinces like Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong and other provinces, while the total rice yield in Jiangsu Province, lying in the same economically developed coastal areas, rose from1282.0×104t in1978to1807.9x104t in2010, with an increase of41.02%. Why didn’t the total rice yield in Jiangsu Province reduce but increase a lot in the process of industrialization and urbanization? What kind of changes had taken place on the rice production in Jiangsu Province since the reform and opening up? What is the reason for the changes? What is the routing of the sustainable development of the rice production in Jiangsu Province? Therefore, spatial-temporal variations and benefits analysis of rice production in recent30years in Jiangsu Province were taken as the cut-in point. Based on the extensive statistical data and survey data, the factor decomposition analysis method, wavelet analysis method, method of Comparative Advantage Index, GIS technology analysis method and comparative analysis method were used to study the characteristics and influencing factors of spatial-temporal variations, analyze the varying regulation of cost-benefit and level of comparative advantage, research empirically the effect of science and technology on promoting the yield-increasing and productivity-improving of rice in Jiangsu Province. According to the analysis above, developmental path and suggestions of rice production in Jiangsu Province were put forward. The main conclusions were as follows:(1) Since1980, rice production in Jiangsu Province had experienced5periods based on the changes of total output:rapid growth period, hovering fluctuation period, breakthrough growth period, rapid decline period and restoring growth period. Before1999, the contribution rate of rice yield per unit area was superior to that of rice acreage; after1999, the contribution rate of rice acreage was greater than that of rice yield per unit area. In recent years, the recovery speed of rice production had been slowing and further yield-increasing difficulty had gradually increased. Through wavelet analysis, it was found that the rice total yield in Jiangsu Province would be likely to enter a new round of decreasing cycle in the next few years. Stabilizing acreage is a necessary prerequisite and an important guarantee to promote rice production in Jiangsu Province. Improving yield per unit area is an inevitable choice and fundamental way to promote rice production in Jiangsu Province. Therefore, stable acreage and further breakthrough of yield per unit area are both crucial to the development of rice production in Jiangsu Province.(2) The rice production of Jiangsu has aggregated comparative advantage and scale comparative advantage, but lacks efficiency comparative advantage. According to comparative advantage index of arithmetic pattern, it is more likely to further enhance the efficiency comparative advantage of rice production than improve scale comparative advantage. Therefore, it’s proposed to keep rice-planting areas stable, maintain the existing scale comparative advantage of rice production, and actively increase rice yield per unit, and boost the efficiency comparative advantage so that the aggregated comparative advantage can be further enhanced with sustainable development of rice production in Jiangsu Province.(3) With the development of industrialization and urbanization in the past30years, significant changes had taken place in the regional pattern of rice production in Jiangsu Province. There are three major rice planting areas in Jiangsu Province, namely the Southern part, the Central part and the Northern part. The planting acreage and total output of rice production in the Northern part had ranked the first among the three largest areas, while the Southern part had slipped down to the third place. The focus of planting acreage and total production of rice had transferred from the Southern part to the Northern part, indicating an observable phenomenon of "Rice Plantation is shifting from the Southern part to the Northern Part". Rice yield advantage in the Southern part gradually weakened, the Central part became currently the prevailing area of rice yield in Jiangsu Province, and the difference between North Jiangsu area and South Jiangsu area, Central Jiangsu area was decreasing gradually. Regional change of rice yield was influenced synthetically by change of cultivated land quality, meteorological factor and social factor. Adjustment of planting structure and change of cultivated acreage were the influencing factors of regional difference of rice planting acreage in Jiangsu Province, while adjustment of planting structure was the leading influencing factor. The change of rice planting acreage was the primary cause of regional pattern change of total rice output in Jiangsu Province.(4) In the past30years, rice production in Jiangsu Province had transferred from developed regions to relatively less developed counties, economic development and the regional pattern of rice production had emerged more and more spatial variability. Based on the increasing rice production from1980to2010, Jiangsu is categorized into four county types for rice production, including medium reduction, stable growth, substantial growth and rapid growth. Through the analysis on the characteristics of time series and spatial distribution of rice production in each region, the total output of rice in substantial and medium growth regions accounts for83.67%, thus becoming the most important part of the whole Jiangsu Province. However, the production of regions with medium reduction has decreased as high as55.01%, which is likely to become the main factor leading to reducing production of rice at the provincial level. (5) Over the past30years, the total cost per acre and production cost per acre as well as production cost per kilogram of indica rice and japonica rice in Jiangsu Province tended to rise rapidly at first then slow down gradually and rose slowly again. But rice production was generally on the track of uptrend. Increasing material and service costs and labor costs led to the increased cost of rice production in Jiangsu Province. The costs of seed, fertilizer, pesticide and leasing operations were the main factors leading to the constant increase in rice material and service cost. From2001to2010, the number of labor used on planting indica and japonica rice per acre decreased significantly, but the constant increase of family workers’wages per day and hired labor wages per day resulted in the increasing costs of labor force, of which family labor cost is far more than hired labor costs, which means the rice production was mainly dependent on family unit in Jiangsu Province. From2004to2010, indica and japonica rice land costs kept rising due to the increasing transferring rent and proprietary rent, with the increase of proprietary rent was the key factor, which means bigger opportunity costs for the land. From1980to2010in Jiangsu Province, the output value of indica and japonica rice, net profit, cost profit rate all witnessed a steady increase but with great fluctuation some years, mainly influenced by the fluctuation of output, price, total cost and other multiple factors. The economic benefits of rice production had generally achieved an unstable improvement. Compared with other provinces, Jiangsu only had advantage over cost, but its net profit and cost profit rate always stood in the forefront of national rice production.(6) Based on the tracking survey of Jiangsu rice high yield science and technology project (financially supported by National Science and Technology Project for Food Production), some analyses have been made in rice production efficiency improvement. Based on good field and fine breed, through the innovation and effective application of crop varieties and cultivation techniques, on the premise of reducing production investment, we can greatly improve the per unit yield of rice and realize the collaborative improvement of per unit yield, benefit and efficiency. Based on the results of empirical research, the science and technology policy of grain production in the future should attach great importance to crop cultivation innovation and application of non-material technology, to further explore our grain yield potential. (7) To promote the sustainable development of rice production in Jiangsu Province, rice planting area should be stabilized and per unit yield should be improved from the perspective at provincial; the declined trend of the rice production in the Southern part of Jiangsu area should be stopped, production capacity in the Central area of Jiangsu should be maintained and potential of rice production in Northern area of Jiangsu should be released from the perspective at regional level; the decreased trend of rice production in medium reducing region should be stopped, the potential of rice production in dramatic and medium growth areas should be promoted from the perspective at county level. In terms of efficiency level, efforts should be made to reduce the production cost, boost per unit yield, rice purchasing price and subsidy standard."To promote the progress of science and technology on rice, enhance coordination of per unit yield and efficiency" is the fundamental choice for sustainable development of rice production in Jiangsu Province, and the crux is to strengthen technological innovation, adaptation and popularization of rice crop. |
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