Inflation Expectations、Credit Control And The Effect Of Interest Rate Transmission

Our country have established the inter-bank market in1996.1.in may the same year,let go out of interbank rates,realize the interbank lending market interest rates in the first time.Then, a series of interest rate gradually liberalized:short-term stock market and the discount market developed rapidly in recent years.,bond interest rate have also realize the marketization. In the same time, loans are transitioned to the interest rate liberalization through the way of floating rate loans firstly, and the gradual increase of fluctuation range.in2009.9,Let go of the interest rates of foreign currency loans and foreign currency long-term deposit interest rate also.in2005,there are five Rural credit cooperatives beginning to try fluctuate the rate more greatly.Our financial institutions appear that The benchmark interest rate float up30%,30%-50%,50%-100%or even more than100%of the loans accountes.Our country "10.25" planning take the achieving a comprehensive interest rate market As the next five years of financial reform focus. An important question raises naturally,how to push forward the reform of China’s market-oriented interest rate,in another way, how to avoid the negative impact of full liberalization of interest rates on China’s financial system and the whole economic system.The market-oriented reform of interest rate means that China’s macro-control will be shifted to the interest rate regulation price management,it means that the key to solving these problems is to study key factors affecting our country’s interest rate transmission,in China’s market-oriented interest rate reform process, and how to fully improve the system foundation for interest rate market.This paper base on the realistic background of interest rate liberalization in China,Begin from two aspects of inflation expectations and the control of credit, empirically research on the conduction effect of inflation expectations and credit control, and based on how to stabilize inflation expectations, how to relax the credit control, Put forward to policy recommendations to perfect the system construction of China’s market-oriented interest rate.in this way, this paper has important theory value and practical significance.In addition to the introduction and conclusion, this study is divided into four chapters: Chapter2gives the theoretical basis of inflation expectations, the effect of credit controls and interest rate transmission. Inflation expectations and interest rates transmisiion effect theory is based on the Phillips curve. Additional inflation expectations Phillips curve reflects not only the impact of the inflation expectations of the current rate of inflation, which can characterize the dynamic characteristics of the inflation and by contrast the additional inflation expectations Phillips curve correlation coefficient with the traditional Phillips curve the size of the correlation coefficient, inflation expectations can also analyze the effect of interest rate transmission. The transmisson effect theory of credit controls and interest rate is based on the IS curve. The most important monetary policy transmission channels are Credit transmission and interest rate transmission. through the qualitative comparison of credit controls under the restriction of credit conduction effect and interest rate transmission effect, give priority to with price regulation and control of interest rate conduction effect is superior to give priority to with quantity regulation of credit conduction effect.Chapter3, starting from the point of view of inflation expectations, the use of2000.1-2012.4quarter economic data, based on the Phillips curve LS econometric models and GMM econometric model empirical analysis of rational inflation expectations in China and the Kalman inflation expectations of interest rate transmission effect. Empirical analysis concluded that:inflation expectations in the pathway of the monetary policy interest rate has a positive effect, and that inflation is expected to have a positive impact on the interest rate transmission effect, but additional Kalman inflation expected relative to the rational inflation expectations Phillips curve correlation coefficient to improve the effect is more obvious, the Kalman inflation expectations of interest rate transmission effect is stronger than rational inflation expectations.In Chapter4, starting from. the term of credit control, using economic data of2004.3-2012.4of China, based on we analyzed LS model of IS curve and GMM model to analyze the effect of interest rate transmission about credit control of China empirically. The empirical analysis suggests:credit control has bad effect on the interest channel of monetory policy, that is that credit control has negative effect on interest rate transmission. But the negative effect is limited.Although there is a certain degree of credit control in our country, the degree of credit control isn’t high. So it provides a good market foundation for marketization of interest rate in China.In Chapter5,based on interest rate transmission of inflation and credit control in China, from the path selection and system construction,we put forward some advises about speeding up the progress of China’s market-oriented interest rate reform and strengthening the effect of interest rate transmission. Realizing from the starting of interest rate marketization to the ending can’t be accomplished by one strike. Our country should take gradual reform of the interest rate marketization based on the actual economic situation. In the system construction of interest rate marketization, firstly, we should establish management framework of monetory policy and stable the inflation. Secondly, we should promote the reform of the financial system orderly, relax the credit control gradually and strengthen the financial supervision and coordination of monetory market.