Analysis And Empirical Research Of Transmission Mechanism Of Economic Growth To Copper Industry Based On System Dynamics

China’s economic growth will continue to maintain a good momentum and to face criticalchallenge, which will bring a huge impact on the development of China’s copper industry. Whatkind of impact will be suffered for Chinese copper industry? What the change trends will bewhen the impact are exert on the supply and demand indicators in various aspects of copperindustry? How China’s copper industry deal with this influence? These are questions urgentlyneeded to be researched and answered.Researching transmission mechanism of China economic growth on copper industry cananswer these questions. Based on building "Economic growth-Copper industry" systemdynamics model, and then defining and analyzing transmission mechanism of economicgrowth on copper industry. Finally, based on the system dynamics model and scenario analysisto analyze China’s economic growth trends and its impact on the copper industry under threescenarios. Main research work and contributions are as follows:(1) Definition of "Economic growth-Copper industry" system."Economic growth-Copper industry" system refers to the complex industrial system, which is coupled by a varietyof elements of economic, demographic, copper industry. The system includes two subsystems:economic growth, and the copper industry. The two subsystems interact and influence eachother.(2) Construction of the "Economic growth-Copper industry" system dynamics model.Based on the theory of supply chain, the main characteristics and compositions of the copperindustry sectors was analyzed. Meanwhile, analyzing the causality and feedback mechanismsof elements of copper industry subsystem by using material flow analysis. By analyzing therelationship between the Chinese copper industry and economic growth, building an"Economic growth-Copper industry" system dynamics model.(3) Defining and analyzing the transmission mechanism of economic growth on thecopper industry. The transmission mechanism of the "Economic growth-Copper industry"system refers to the entirety, under the influence of economic growth, which is formed by theeconomic growth factors and copper industry indicators. Demand for refined copper is the hubof the transmission mechanism.(4) By using scenario analysis, to calculate and analyze the results of China’s economicgrowth and its impact on the development of the copper industry in2012-2030under threescenarios. The corresponding policy recommendations are proposed. Results showed that from2012to2030, the indicators with larger annual growth rate are the production of copperconcentrate, refined copper and copper alloys, consumption of refined copper, and the amountof direct and indirect use of copper scrap. These indicators are all the domestic productioncapacity, which means from2012to2030, the domestic production capacity will play anincreasingly important role. In the area of copper ore mining, imported copper concentrate is still the main source ofsupply of copper ore resources. However, foreign dependence of copper concentrate willclearly decline. In copper refining sectors, domestic supply is the main source of supply ofrefined copper. In the aspects of copper scrap recycling, scrap copper imports are still the mainbody of copper scrap recycling, for its amount is greater than the amount of recycling copperscrap.Therefore, the advice for the healthy and reasonable development of China’s copperindustry includes: keeping an eye on consolidating and maintaining existing trade relationshipsbesides putting emphasis on the basis of and channels of imports; control objectives ofproduction of refined copper should be maintained between9.5million tons to13million tons;copper resource-based city or enterprises should complete the transformation and upgradebefore2020in order to avoid the risk brought by decline in copper demand; control objectivesof copper alloys production should be limited to20million tons, and encouraging copperprocessing industry to transfer to other developing countries; expanding to ensure the amountof imported scrap copper is not less than8.5million tons; enhancing the technologicalenterprises capabilities of promoting the use of copper scrap.