Quantitative Analysis Of Indemnificatory Housing System And Low-income Families Housing Problems In Beijing

With the economic system reform, housing allocation system has gone through by the public welfare housing distribution model, the monetization of housing distribution model to commercialization of housing supply system. Economic development has provided an important opportunity for the real estate industry development. The real estate market development using market-oriented mode of operation not only to improve the housing supply quantity, quality levels and housing construction standards, but also to promote faster growth rate of housing prices, housing prices highest on record to be constantly refreshed. Housing prices climb higher and higher in Beijing during2007. Facing the high prices, low-income households unable to improve housing conditions, meet their basic housing needs. Therefore, the research of indemnificatory housing system and housing problems of low-income families is very urgent, this problems are not only has important practical significance, but also has a significant theoretical and academic value.In this thesis, according to Beijing indemnificatory system characteristics, the quantitative analysis method is applied to the problem of indemnificatory housing system research, including the major institutional links of access standards, scale, capital requirements, and exit mechanisms.The main works are:First of all, bring forward the indemnificatory housing access standard calculation method. There are two ways to get the indemnificatory housing access standard, one is given a guarantee scale by the government, calculates access standard based on income distribution function fitting method. The other one is based on Housing-price ratio formula and the real housing price to count the access standard. In case of low-rent housing, when the access standards adjust to different level, we find out the policy effects and conduct policy simulations.Secondly, measure the indemnificatory housing system scale. Two angles for the interpretation given to the guarantee scale, one is system guarantee scale, that income level is below the low-rent housing, affordable housing, limit commercial housing access standards in the number of low-income residents, and predicte the guarantee scale changing trends in the period of "12th Five Year Plan"; another is the actual calculation of the total demand for indemnificatory housing, that is the number of people who is not able to afford the commercial housing according to the actual incomes and the real housing prices, which requires the government to provide some residents housing security, and computes the residents affordable commercial housing price range. At the end of this part, we computes the group of sandwich layer number between indemnificatory housing system and commercial housing market, provides calculation menthods to the problems of sandwich layer groups number inside the housing system.Thirdly, estimate the total funding for housing. We decompound funding needs for indemnificatory housing into three parts, which are low-rent housing funding needs model, affordable housing funding needs model and limit commercial housing funding needs model, and then aggregat to become a total funding requirement of indemnificatory housing in Beijing volume model, at last, use the relevant statistical data for the empirical analysis. We sum up the indemnificatory housing capital supply channel type, prove the feasibility of social funds taking part in the indemnificatory housing establishment by using game theory.Finally, design the indemnificatory housing exit mechanism. Based on the filtration theory in the housing, housing demand and supply theory, the proportion of residents’ income and housing consumption needs theory, we propose a dynamic gradient subsidy withdrawal mechanism model. For groups of sandwich layer problem, we also provide the exit mechanism conception when there are sandwich layer groups in the indemnificatory housing system.