Structural Influences And Key Supply Relationships Analysis Of Carbon Emission Intensity In China

As the image of responsible global power,China proposed that the integrated carbon emission intensity in 2020 would decrease by 40%-45% compared with that of 2005.In addition,the carbon dioxide emission will reach its peak before 2030.Comparing with some developed countries,China,a developing country,is relatively immature within energy conservation.On the basis of the economy-society-energy-environment realities,it's wise to formulate China's own distinctive version of environmental policies with learning advanced experiences from other countries simultaneously.This paper reviewed literatures to summarize the advantages and disadvantages of different research methods in the economy-energy-environment field.This work provides academic foundation of methods selection in this research.At the empirical level,this paper investigated the fossil fuel(e.g.coal,oils,natural gas)consumption structure,electricity consumption structure and energy intensity at the sectoral level in China from 2005 to 2012.It could allow us finding out the key industries to the energy performance of China preliminarily.In order to study the 2020 environmental target quantitatively,we adopted D&L multiplicative structural decomposition analysis to the change of integrated carbon emission intensity of China from 2005 to 2012.Under the non-competitive import assumption,energy intensity effect was the biggest restrained factor.On the other hand,energy structure effect and domestic production structure effect were the main promoting factors.As the continuous improvement of power technology,the emission coefficient effect always presented weak restrained result.During the research period,domestic final demand structure changed its promoting effect to restrained effect.Then,the generalized Fisher index based attribution analysis was implemented to energy intensity effect and domestic production structure effect respectively to confirm the key sectors associated with integrated carbon emission intensity.The results showed that the decrease of industrial energy intensity contributed the most to the restraining the increase of integrated carbon emission intensity.On the contrary,the domestic production structure related to metal smelting and rolling processing industry and transportation,warehousing and postal industry played important promoting role.From the perspective of industrial linkage,this paper did the I/O based sensitivity analysis to agriculture industry and the above-mentioned two key industries respectively to deeply discover the potential of emission reductions.From both demand-and supply-side of view,it is complete to locate the key production and rationing relationships at the same time.At last,this paper made the policy suggestions in accordance with the key industrial chain information extracted from the sensitivity analysis results.