Measurement Of Macroeconomic Effects Of Environmental Policy In China

Environmental problems have become a global issue nowadays and China is no exception.In the last late century,some countries put forward cutting carbon emissions policy in succession preparing for the worsening of global green house effect.However,they can't reverse the worsening trend of atmospheric environment so far.Our country attaches great importance to the environmental problems due to the carbon emissions,under the increasing pressure of cutting emissions,considering the uncertainties among environmental issues and nonlinear independencies,the costs and mechanisms of different environmental policies and their executions will undoubtedly have different impacts on the dynamics of macroeconomics,and it is especially important to quantify such differences.Therefore,combining the environmental macroeconomics theories with the study on the test method of policy which applies for the measuring macroeconomic effects of changes in environmental policy,would have profound meanings on the normalization the relationship of environmental protection and economic development,the advancement of environmental policy reform,and the construction of the system of theories,would lay stress on the study of relative policy and this paper.People realize the natural uncertainties of atmospheric changes by long-term research and study on policy.The mutual interaction mechanism show the high complex of the feature of dynamic uncertainties and geographical dispersiveness.The traditional qualitative and quantitative analyses,which were conducted using empirical data,are unable to identify the consequences of environmental policies and could incur tremendous "experimental costs" on socioeconomics and the environment.At present,the general policy simulation experiments are conducted by dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE).It tested the effects of the policy from the impact response message of system variables on various factors by the structure of the model,which provides a viable experimental tool for evaluating the policy effects in advance.From a macroeconomic point of view,this paper constructed a Neo-Keynesian E-DSGE model that includes environmental factors and environmental policies.This model takes the carbon emission as a proxy variable of environmental pollution,and combines the environmental tax,regulations and severity,and the trading of permits with a controlled quantity into a unified framework.It comprehensively revealed the interconnection and mechanisms of how different environmental policies would affect environmental quality,economic growth,and social warfare.In addition,the model generates constructive and applicable evaluations for the different policies based on their economic effects.This paper consists of eight chapters with the following basic structure.The first chapter introduces the background formation on text study and significance of this research.The second chapter provides the overview and analysis of relevant literatures,mainly including combing literature on the construction of various economic factors of carbon emissions contribution measure based on decomposition model,and the combing literature of environmental policy of the economic mechanism base on adding the thinking of environmental factors into the existing economic model,and the domestic and foreign literature review and comments of solving related to technical issues about introducing the theory of environmental factors into DSGE models and evaluating and testing the environmental policies based on historical data.The third and the fourth chapter provide economic theory and methodology basis for the construction of E-DSGE models and macro effect measure of environmental policy in China,based on theory of the macroeconomic model under the environment balance and the choice of environmental policy economic cycle.The framework of DSGE theory provides a new technical path for environmental policy research.The fifth chapter designs the theory model for the framework of E-DSGE,including choosing the buildup of new standard Neo-Keynesian CEE-SW framework model as reference data;connection between environmental aspect and the framework of DSGE based on three aspects of research work;providing the conditions to realize the balance of economic system and linearization of the model.The sixth chapter is estimation of empirical model of E-DSGE,including the statistical descriptions of the cyclical changes in domestic carbon dioxide emission;transforming E-DSGE estimation of empirical model into five data simulation systems for domino effect measure of the environmental policies realization based on calibration of parameters and Bayesian estimation;finishing the test of system simulation and stability.The seventh chapter provides the measurement of domestic macro effect on environmental policies from three aspects of research work,including the measure of the system fundamentals and welfare effect affected by the environmental policy,the independent response measure of the main variables in the face of the system and the policy impact,and the decomposition measure of the comprehensive effect of combined impact.The eighth chapter summarizes the whole paper and gives guidance on future researches.According to the analysis in the paper,the following clear and significant conclusions are reached.Firstly,based on the measure of the system fundamentals and welfare effect affected by the environmental policy,we found that the final steady state level under the different environmental policy in the determine environment is the same,and our country is difficult to sustain the targets of high emissions reduction at present.For example,the actual output level could be reduced by 3.7017%and the welfare cost could be improved by 1.656%when the reduction target of 20%carbon emission achieved immediately;the actual output level could be reduced by 10.9563%and the welfare cost could be improved by 4.845%when the reduction target of 40%carbon emission achieved immediately.That is astonishing.Apparently,there is a huge gap between economic fundamentals long-established by the energy-intensive and high emission development pattern and the achievement of the aim of green and sustainable development;economic structural adjustment is an arduous task.The job of reducing carbon emissions cannot be achieved over one night,we need to implement the goal of reducing carbon emissions gradually by stepping up the pace of further supply-side structural.Secondly,based on the independent response measure of the main variables in the face of the system and the policy impact,we found that the response of main variables has weak or faint performance overall under the increasing impact of fiscal and monetary policy,and negative technology of the system,and three kinds of environmental policy,which has not a particularly strong negative impact on stability of our country economic system.Environmental policy plays an automatic stabilizer mechanism for macroeconomic fluctuations,and the price of emission reduction has the pro-cyclical characteristics,which convergence trend of economic system's fluctuations.The research show the policy space that we could achieve the promoting interaction between the economic structural adjustment and carbon emissions reduction,by the means of speeding up carbon emissions reduction gradually,and applying the corresponding policy instrument for the structure reforming of supply side.Thirdly,based on complex three-dimensional cross information of the main variables,the policy background and impact factors,we found that three kinds of environmental policy have significant economic dynamic effects,as well as the major variables' decomposition characteristics of the impact of environmental policy response have prominent difference,which provide policy space for the choice of the environmental policy.