Research Of Urban System Safety Theory Based On Self-organization

It has inseparable,mutual support,mutual promotion relationship between urban development and urban safety.And,it is the inevitable requirement to research on the safety issues of urban production,the life and the survival.On the basis of extensive investigation and analysis,from the perspective of major accidents(disasters)and event prediction,prevention and control in the process of urban operation,the self-organization theory,complex system theory and system safety theory,are effectively integrated.Urban system safety theory is deeply studied from the following five aspects:urban safety operation theory,the establishment of the safe operation system,mechanisms of the safety operation,safety capacity and risk field and application.Firstly,taking the safety issues in urban development as starting point,the relationship between urban development and urban safety is studied on public safety range.The coupling relationship between urban safety operation level and development stage is established.Self-organization theory and complex system theory is developed.The organization characteristics,complex features,complex network structure and the risk field composition in urban safety operation is clear.The value of urban safe operation is comprehensive analysis and demonstration.The value contribution rate model is established.And,the urban safety planning values and the value of the of urban safety operation theory are put forward.The philosophy value and economics value is integrated,then,the value theory of urban safety operation is formed.Based on those,the meaning of urban safe operation and urban safety operation system are clear.The theory and connotation of urban safety operation are deeply studied.The urban safety operation theory is the core part of the urban system safety theory.Then,from the perspective of "accidents and incidents prediction,prevention and control",it established the urban safety operation system,which contains urban development class safety subsystem and urban safety safeguard class subsystem.The system is divided into 10 parts.Based on the analysis of the hazard factors of the subsystem,the index system is established in detail.The establishment of the system provides a basis for comprehensive,complete assessmenting the actual of urban safety operation level,and finding the weak link.In order to make clear the internal relations between the subsystems,the inner law and the dynamic mechanism of the urban safety operation system are studied.The formation mechanism of dissipative structure,the "entropy" mechanism and cooperation mechanism are clear.The tree model is established of the“CAS structure,characteristics and elements of city safety system".The grey dynamic self-organization degree model is put forward to quantitative the urban safety operation system.And,the comprehensive integrated method in fuzzy consensus quantitative calculation to the urban safety planning and evaluation is also studied.The function network,supervision network and integrated network are established.Then,the dynamic mechanism of the network structure is studied.And,the brittle link entropy and the brittleness model are established.Grey dynamic self-organization model can be quantified assessment the actual level,the brittle link entropy and brittle degree model can quantitative assessment the stability of the network,and they can laid the foundation for forecasting the future development trend.The theory of urban safety capacity and risk field is studied.According to the established urban safety system,the safety capacity is divided into eight types.And,the principles and methods to determined the type is given,The variable relationship network is established.The definition of urban risk field is studied.The consideration index of urban safety operation level is put forward,and the determinant condition of the optimum state is put forward.Also,the quantitative analysis model is established.Last,qualitative and quantitative assessment to the safety operation level of Dadong district was conducted using the theory of urban system safety.And the development trend has been forecasted.Conclusions are consistent with the plan and evaluation conclusions of Shenyang and Dadong district.Urban system safey theory is an important part of the system safey theory.Its application objects are clear,structural system integrity.It enriches the system safety theory and safety science theory.