Accounting And Decomposition Of Sectoral CO₂ Emissions In China

The global warming is an important environmental problem of human society at present.The reduction of the CO2 emissions coming from fossil fuels is key to solving this problem.Building scientific and reasonable CO2 emissions assessment indicator and determining the source and change of sectoral CO2 emissions are helpful not only to decompose the reduction targets of CO2 emissions but also to formulate the differentiated reduction policies.In this paper,the non-competitive input-output method is used to determine the source of sectoral CO2 emissions from the static perspective and the structural decomposition method is used to decompose sectoral CO2 emissions change from a comparative static perspective.The main content of this paper includes three aspects.Firstly,production-based emissions(PBE)versus consumption-based emissions(CBE)which are good indicators for assessing CO2 emissions are put forward and used to account the sectoral CO2 emissions.Secondly,sectoral CO2 emissions are decomposed from the static perspective.The complete emissions are decomposed into the direct emissions and the indirect emissions.Sectoral PBE versus CBE are decomposed into all sectoral PBE versus CBE respectively and from the final demand perspective.Thirdly,the simplified D&L method with special properties required by ideal decomposition method is used to decompose sectoral CO2 emissions from the comparative static perspective.The innovation of this paper is mainly embodied in three aspects.Firstly,based on production versus consumption responsibility principle,the PBE versus CBE are put forward respectively.The theoretical analysis shows that the PBE versus CBE are good indicators for assessing CO2 emissions.Using the data of 1997,2002,2007,2012,sectoral CO2 emissions in China are accounted and compared.The results indicate that sectoral characteristics of CO2 emissions in China can be divided into five types and those characteristics are stable.The key sectors of PBE are characterized by more quantity of PBE and the higher rate of PBE to CBE.The ordinary sectors of PBE are characterized by the higher rate of PBE to CBE.The key sectors of CBE are characterized by more quantity of CBE and the higher rate of CBE to PBE.The ordinary sectors of CBE are characterized by the higher rate of CBE to PBE.The ordinary sectors are characterized by the quantity of CBE equivalent to that of PBE.Secondly,the complete CO2 emissions framework is improved and used to decompose sectoral CO2 emissions in China from the static perspective.The complete CO2 emissions framework is improved by introducing the non-competitive input-output method which eliminates import data and by giving the mathematical derivation based on Taylor's expansion of the decomposition of complete CO2 emissions into direct CO2 emissions and indirect CO2 emissions.Using the improved complete CO2 emissions framework,based on the data of 2012 in China,sectoral characteristics of the complete CO2 emissions are explored.The results show that the whole sectors are classified into four types.Type ? is the concealed higher CO2 emissions sector which is characterized by the lower direct CO2 emissions coefficient versus the higher complete CO2 emissions coefficient and the higher rate of indirect versus complete CO2 emissions.Type ? belongs to the typical lower CO2 emissions sector which is characterized by the lower direct versus complete CO2 emissions coefficient and the higher rate of indirect versus complete CO2 emissions.Type ?belongs to the obvious higher CO2 emissions sector which is characterized by the higher direct versus complete CO2 emissions coefficient and the lower rate of indirect versus complete CO2 emissions.Type ? is the non-typical lower CO2 emissions sector which is characterized by the higher direct CO2 emissions coefficient versus the lower complete CO2 emissions coefficient and the lower rate of indirect versus complete CO2 emissions.Those characteristics are stable.Thirdly,from the comparative static perspective,the simplified D&L method with special properties required by ideal decomposition method is used to decompose sectoral CO2 emissions.Compared with other ideal decomposition methods,while the simplified D&L method keeps the characteristics of the ideal decomposition method,it also greatly reduces the amount of calculation.At the same time,analysis is extended to the sectors,which means that the contribution from the different driving factors on CO2 emissions change was decomposed to sectoral level,how every driving factors effects on CO2 emissions change is grasped in depth and that more information for further policy guidance is provided.The results show that the final demand level which is the most important factor leading to the increase of sectoral CO2 emissions performs a positive and sustained effect.The CO2 emissions intensity which is the only factor that lead to the reduction of CO2 emissions shows a negative effect.The input-output technology has been shown as a positive effect.The final demand structure has undergone a transition from a negative effect to a weak positive effect and to a finally positive effect.