The Characteristic Of Virtual Water Flows Between China And Africa Based On Agricultural Products Trade Data

Water is one of the most critical strategic resources either for survival of human being or social development. Whereas, as a resource in shortage globally, water is the fundamental element for agricultural production, in particular, grain production, is gaining more and more attention as a major reference in international trade. Virtual water trade, as an adjusting tool, has become one of important measures to increase national or local virtual water amount, to achieve balance of regional water resources, alleviate the scarcity of water resources in the nation and the local places. Aiming at fostering a rapid and stable development, promoting water use efficiency, and increase the level of food security of both China and Africa, systematic research, quantitatively and qualitatively, is done through quantitative and qualitative analysis by building theoretical framework on the status quo and agricultural trade in China-Africa. A comparative study on China-Africa trade in agriculture is made. Discussion is made on the water footprint of agriculture production in both China and Africa, and the virtual water transfer in the agricultural trade between China and Africa based on information collection, data processing and statistical calculation. Hence, argument is concluded based on the influencing factors for agricultural trade and their comparative strengths respectively as the follows:1. With the rapid development of agricultural trade between China and Africa, the trade volume tends to be increasing every year with further expansion of trade scale. Agricultural trade volume between China and Africa, although, still takes a minor role while comparing with the trade volume between China and other trading partners, the share of China-Africa agricultural trade keeps growing. And the importance of the agricultural trade between China and Africa is even higher with the deficiency and surplus in agricultural trade alternatively. The geological location of market structure of China-Africa agricultural trade is highly concentrated. China’s agricultural trading partners as targeting market are mainly located in the west of Africa and the north of Africa. The source countries that China imports agricultural products are concentrated in southern Africa and the west of Africa. Elements of national GDP, population, transportation distance and whether the location of the trade partner is in coastal areas are apparently relative with the agricultural trade between China and Africa nations. National GDP is playing a positive role; whereas the population and transportation distance are negatively relative.2. The unit virtual water of most crops in Africa is higher than those in China. Compare with virtual water of grain crops between China and Africa, the gap is less with tuber crops, oil palm, soy bean, sesame, sugarcane, natural rubber, tobacco, cashrew nut and some other cash crops. From the point of view of comparative advantages, to export grain to Africa from China and to import cash crops could well reduce water consumption volume of agriculture production both in Africa and in China.3. It is demonstrated by the analysis on virtual water flow of agricultural trade between China and Africa that:Firstly, according to the theory of comparative advantages, grain export from China to Africa and cash crops export from Africa to China could well decrease the water footprint of agricultural production on the whole.Secondly, the virtual water volume of agricultural products that China imports from Africa during 2003 to 2012 shows a growing tendency, and the virtual water export from China maintains stable with less variation in total volume. In 2003, the virtue water volume trade from China to Africa was deficit by exporting 2.278 billion m3. The situation changed starting from 2004 by a surplus trade of a net annual import of virtue water of 4.058 billion m3. There was a slight drop during 2007 to 2008. From 2009 to 2011, the virtue water of agricultural trade imported by China was significantly increased. Thirdly, China mainly imports virtue water of agricultural products in Africa countries including Mozambique, South Africa, Burkina Faso, Benin and Mali. China export to South Africa, Morocco, Cote Diva, Algeria, Egypt and Nigeria, etc,. Most of virtue water transfer to China is from cotton, fruits and livestock products. And most of outward transfer of virtue water from China is by tea and cereal trade export. There is not a significant variation in virtue water trade between China and Africa along time difference in terms of countries and commodity varieties. The virtue water trade between China and Africa shows a concentration on a certain countries and commodities.Fourthly, virtue water trade between China and Africa plays an adjusting role of the needed agricultural commodities varieties so as to supply the regional demand. Meanwhile, it saves both China and Africa water resource volume of 1.444 billion m3 and 4.273 m3 respectively. The net trade of virtue water between China and Africa depicts a transfer from areas where water use is of low efficiency to those places of higher efficient water use, which exerts a negative impact on water use in the world of a total waste of 591 million m3 of water resources. Hence, the virtue water trade between China and Africa provides a support to the consumption demand of agricultural produce and the water security in both continents. However, from a global dimension, this virtue water trade is unsustainable for the sake of high efficient use of water resource.5. Based on the conclusions from research on features of China-Africa agricultural trade, water footprint of major agricultural commodities in China and Africa, and the virtual water transfer in agricultural trade between China and Africa, it is proposed the concept of technical trade by combining China-Africa agricultural trade, resource and environment, and the development policy, which is an expansion of agricultural trade from only commodity trade to a wider connotation including technology transfer. Technical trade could well be a cutting edge for further trade cooperation between China and Africa by technology export in terms of agricultural aids, investment, cooperation and development, so as to lower the water footprint of agricultural production in Africa by increasing the unit yield through technical improvement and upgrading, for the utmost goal of ensuring the security of water resource and food security.Upon all have been discussed, some policy suggestions are then made aiming to increase the water use efficiency, safeguarding food security in Africa and hence to stabilize the food price in global market. The policies proposed include further promotion of virtual water trade of agricultural commodities between China and Africa, increase of the level of water resource and food security, seeking a rationalized agricultural trade structure between China and Africa, and strengthening technology trade between China and Africa so as to lower down the water footprint of agricultural production in Africa, hence further stabilize the food market globally.