Research On China-ASEAN Agricultural Products Virtual Water Trade Issues

China has a large population,and is facing one of the biggest problems of water shortage.The agricultural development,food security and environment protection are closely related to the people's interests,thus,effective development and utilization of water resources is crucial.Due to this purpose,the implement of vital water trade strategy is important.In recent years,the agriculture trade between China and ASEAN is rapidly increased under the framework of China-ASEAN FTA.China has imported a lot of virtual water from the countries of ASEAN where are water abundant.Therefore,a further research of the relationship between China-ASEAN agricultural virtual trade and the relief of water scarcity,food shortage,environment protection and the improvement of agricultural foreign trade structure of China could be necessary.Based on such a purpose,it is necessary analyze all the mentioned problems in a scientific way.The main problems in this dissertation were described as follows:First,how about the feasibility of implement of agriculture-virtual-water trade in China-ASEAN FTA? To uncover this problem,water resource conditions in ASEAN,the CAFTA construction and the agriculture trade in China-ASEAN were discussed.Second,whether the relation between the water input and the agriculture-virtual-water trade in China-ASEAN is follow with the comparative advantage theory.What is the new significance? How to use water factor to discuss the comparative cost with other factors? Also,what is the FTA affection to the agricultural-virtual-water trade under the FTA affection theory model?Thirdly,what is the counting method and index of China-ASEAN agriculture vital water trade? The paper counting the virtual water trade of single crop and agriculture between China and ASEAN,from product and industry level in part four.Besides,to counting some indicators such as the virtual water export volume,import volume and net trade volume of China.The indicators can help us know more about the structure of China-ASEAN agriculture-virtual-water trade and will be use as evidence in the following theory and practice study.What factors affect China-ASEAN agriculture virtual water trade? In part five,the paper use some independent variables such as water productivity,water resource,GDP,distance,CPI,labor resource,land resource,agricultural scale,country fix affection,time fix affection and so on to check the affection to the agriculture virtual water trade of China-ASEAN.What's the FTA affection to China-ASEAN agricultural-virtual-water trade and what's the affection the trade to China.In part six,we use DID and PPLM to check the trade creation affection and transfer affection,on the while analysis the affections that China-ASEAN agriculture-virtual-water trade to China agriculture international trade,agriculture industry structure,water security,food security and ecology environment.How to carry out the strategy of China-ASEAN agriculture virtual water trade effectively? The paper gives the concrete suggestion in part seven.According to the problems mentioned above,the paper analyzed the questions in the following parts with theoretical and practical methods.The work firstly emphasized on the background introduction.Then give the important question,indicating the study purpose,practical significant of the paper,the main ideas and methods on possible creations.The Part two of this work summerized the national and international relevant studies from the three aspects of basis meaning of virtual water trade,theory study and applying study were summarized.In the theory section,the paper give the concrete descriptions to uncover the relation between the comparative advantage theory,resource replace theory,resource flow theory,FTA theory with virtual water trade.In practical section,the paper gives the concrete description on the relation between virtual water trade and food security,water resource utilization,on the relation between virtual water trade and environment,on the virtual water trade in different regions of a country and that in different countries,and on China virtual water trade strategy.The Part three of this work analyzed the basis theory of the agricultural-virtual-water trade of China-ASEAN.Extending analysis on comparative advantage,and try to use water factor together with other factors to analyze the chance cost,explaining the agricultural-virtual-water trade of China-ASEAN by H-O-V theory,and try to explain the trade affection and benefit of the agricultural-virtual-water trade of China-ASEAN.The part four of this work counted the virtual water trade volume of the single crop and the agriculture by formula PENGMAN and the input-output method,in this way weget some indexes such as the virtual water trade volume of single crop and the agriculture,the export volume,import volume and net trade volume of China.These indexes indicate the china's present water resource condition,also indicated that China rely on ASEAN water resources through agriculture trade with each other,and show the virtual water volume which is embody in the agriculture virtual water trade of China-ASEAN,support the following theory and practical analysis.The part five of this work focused on the affection factors of the agriculture virtual water trade of China-ASEAN.On the base of reviews of virtual water trade factor,take a practical analysis from some factors such as GDP,distance,agriculture labor resource difference,market price difference,the establish of CAFTA,China's entering WTO.In this part,the method of OLS,FE and PPML were also used to check the affection,and obtained the practical analysis result and its meaning.The part six of this work checked the FTA affection to agriculture virtual water trade of China-ASEAN by the method of DID and PPML through different samples,in order to indicate that the agriculture-virtual-water trade of China-ASEAN make the creation and transfer effects under CAFTA background.Furthermore,discuss the affection that ChinaASEAN agriculture-virtual-water trade to China agriculture international trade,agriculture industry structure,water security,food security and ecology environment.The part seven of this work made some conclusions and gave concrete suggestions.To summarize,the work analysis the problems mentioned above in the seven parts,the paper obtained several innovations in study observation,theory checking and extending and the practical study method.The innovations on theory are described in the follows:The paper made a deep analysis on comparative advantage theory,H-O-V theory and FTA effect theory analysis,as the theory basic of regional economic integration organizations in agriculture-virtual-water trade.The paper used water factor and other factors to analysis the comparative cost of agricultural-virtual-water trade of China-ASEAN.It also discusses the relationship between the abundant levels of water factor endowment with the agricultural-virtual-water trade of China-ASEAN.The study discoverd that when the technology difference is small among CAFTA members,water factor endowment has become the origin of comparativeadvantage of a country's agriculture-virtual-water trade.The applicantion of agriculture-virtual-water trade strategy is possible and effective.On the contrary,when the technology difference is large among CAFTA member,water factor endowment no longer be the mainly comparative advantage for a country to trade agriculture virtual water.The possibility and the effective of the strategy application are weaken.The paper count the agriculture-virtual-water trade's volume of China-ASEAN in order to check H-O-V theory,supply some realistic evident of the theory.The counting result indicates that,the country with abundant water factor export a lot of agriculture-virtual water by exporting water-intensive agricultural products.Fourthly,the paper explored the member's agriculture-virtual water problem under CAFTA background,try to observe and prove the condition,character,effect factor and CAFTA affection of agriculture-virtual water trade between China and ASEAN.The paper indicates the FTA affection of agriculture-virtual water trade between China and ASEAN on the base of regional economic theory.The present research discovered that trade creation affection created in China in the agriculture-virtual-water trade with ASEAN,and the transfer affection is not obvious.The innovations in empirical research methods mainly reflected as follows:First,estimates of the virtual water trade of agricultural products and industries from two different levels were measured and comparative analysis,to better explain the international division of virtual water trade in agricultural and industrial products.FAO recommended the use of Penman formula to estimate China-ASEAN results single crop virtual water trade show that China-ASEAN agricultural virtual water trade exchange of agricultural products are mainly water-intensive products and China net imports from ASEAN a lot of water intensive products.The input-output method estimate's results show that China showed a large and growing trade deficit in agriculture virtual water trade of China-ASEAN.Second,the differences in water productivity and water variables used in ChinaASEAN Agricultural Products Virtual Water Trade model.The introduction of water productivity,water resource differences in gravity model mainly study water resources endowment and water productivity.The results showed that water resources endowment between China and the ASEAN countries J and bilateral agricultural virtual water tradecorrelated positively and significantly affected,and technical differences and bilateral agricultural virtual water trade although positively correlated but the impact was not significant.Third,the paper compares different samples,the use of double difference method and Poisson maximum likelihood estimates of China-ASEAN agricultural-virtual-water trade effect of the FTA analysis.The results showed that agricultural virtual water trade of China–ASEAN FTA has brought more significant trade creation effect to China,but the trade diversion effect is not obvious,consistent with the results of the analysis of the theoretical model.Based on the above research findings and innovation,the main conclusions of this dissertation are described as follows:First,the agriculture virtual water trade of China-ASEAN has real basic conditions.Firstly,the Chinese water shortage and water security issues outstanding,and most of the ASEAN countries water is relatively abundant,rich in water resources per capital than the per capital water resources in China,bilateral agricultural trade and their closely related to water resources endowment for the implementation of the bilateral agricultural virtual water trade strategy provides feasibility.Secondly,the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area with the smooth running of the effective implementation of bilateral agricultural virtual water trade strategy,to provide a more open market conditions as well as important policy support.Second,today's virtual water trade has become an important way across the globe to save water resources.Quantification of virtual water helps to accurately measure the actual water consumption in production of various products and services required for water saving products and services,optimize the industrial structure and trade structure provides a new way based on the concept of virtual water.The use of the United Nations Penman formula estimates China-ASEAN crop virtual water trade show that China's imports from ASEAN Agricultural Products Virtual Water mainly rice,cassava and fruit and other water-intensive products for the carrier,China-ASEAN agricultural exports virtual water is mainly fruit,tea,cassava,spices and other water-intensive products for the carrier.Virtual water imports of Chinese agricultural products to ASEAN is far greater than exports,and the trade deficit continued to widen,the actual situation of the bilateral agricultural virtual water trade confirms the H-O-V theoretical model.In addition,China to ASEAN agricultural exports virtual water trade reasonable structure,import structure is relatively simple.China's imports from ASEAN are more water-intensive agricultural products,water feature is the Virtual Water Trade and bilateral agricultural trade agricultural products important source of comparative advantage.Secondly,the use of input-output method of calculation derived from Chinese agriculture virtual water trade show,in recent years,Chinese agriculture Singapore,the Philippines,Cambodia and Brunei and other ASEAN countries 4 virtual water trade surplus situation,and with Malaysia,Myanmar agriculture virtual water trade Vietnam,Indonesia,Thailand and Laos and other ASEAN countries,six are deficit situation.Chinese imports of virtual water in agricultural ASEAN strong dependence.The China-ASEAN Agricultural Virtual Water Trade and China-ASEAN single crop estimates of virtual water trade compared the results shows that China and ASEAN Agricultural virtual water trade deficit mainly from China bilateral crops' virtual water trade deficit,rather than from bilateral forest animal husbandry and fishery products such as virtual water trade deficit.The third,the method of least squares,fixed effects estimation methods and PPML ASEAN agricultural exports to China Factors virtual water inspection found that,first,China to ASEAN agricultural exports virtual water in line with the comparative advantages of ASEAN and China Agricultural water resources were more labor advantage,but no agricultural land resources in accordance with comparative advantages.Secondly,technological progress in China to ASEAN agricultural exports virtual water does not reflect its significant role;small scale agricultural production in China,in China for ASEAN agricultural industry cluster virtual water export of agricultural products not scale.Finally,the price factor and trading costs and other factors,the prices of Chinese exports of ASEAN agricultural virtual water play a catalytic role;economic distance exports to China-ASEAN Agricultural Products Virtual Water does not reflect a significant negative correlation,indicating that China and bordering ASEAN countries trade is not significantly more than the distance of the ASEAN countries;China-ASEAN Free Trade area of the bilateral agricultural trade play a catalytic role of virtual water,while China's accession to the WTO on China-ASEAN agricultural exports virtual water plays anegative role.The fourth,the use of double difference method and the maximum likelihood method of China-ASEAN agricultural trade virtual effect of the water tested was found,CAFTA(China-ASEAN Free Trade Area)is set up to promote the development of virtual water trade in agricultural products between China and ASEAN countries.CAFTA has brought China trade creation effect,but not at the expense of any trade diversion.CAFTA on China's net trade effect of 20.3%,and thus China's imports from ASEAN Agricultural virtual water plays a greater role in promoting growth,but also improve China's trade benefits.The fifth,China-ASEAN Agricultural Products Virtual Water Trade for the beneficial effects of China is mainly reflected in: Firstly,China-ASEAN Agricultural Products Virtual Water Trade With the expansion of bilateral trade in agricultural products and expand;at the same time,the implementation of China-ASEAN Agricultural Products Virtual Water Trade Strategy China will also help promote the development of agriculture and foreign trade of agricultural products.Secondly,the annual growth of China's imports from ASEAN agricultural virtual water helps ease the domestic per capital water shortages,uneven distribution of water resources,water supply and demand contradiction,tension production and domestic water and other outstanding issues,while providing water migration,storage and use of new means to promote the strengthening of the concept of water resources management and water-saving awareness updates.Thirdly,Chinese net imports from ASEAN cereal(such as rice)increased year by year and its virtual water in the area of water resources is conducive to optimizing the configuration,agricultural water saving,while a moderate increase in cereal import water-intensive rice for maintaining national food security has important strategic significance.Fourthly,the implementation of China-ASEAN Agricultural Products Virtual Water Trade strategy helps to reduce the over-exploitation of the country's freshwater resources,ecological and environmental protection will help to improve the hydro-logical situation.Based on these findings,we propose specific policy recommendations: attaches great importance to agricultural water conservation and regional virtual water trade strategy formulation effect;attaches great importance to agricultural virtual water trade strategy for food security is important;more rational use of agricultural comparative advantage;further optimize China-ASEAN agricultural virtual water trade structure;further strengthening China-ASEAN free trade area.Meanwhile,the paper summarizes the further study of the problem: to further improve the accuracy of estimates of agricultural trade virtual water;Depth analysis of China-ASEAN agricultural implement virtual water trade strategy constraints exist;agricultural and economic resources(including agricultural population,labor force quality),for Chinese agricultural infrastructure,agricultural science and technology as well as a comprehensive service system,etc.al.The virtual effects ASEAN agricultural trade issues of water development,further research is needed at theoretical and practical level.