Research On Emergency Decision Based On Lifecycle Of Disruptive Incidents

The decision-makers must make the emergency decision quickly and accurately to respond emergency, to reduce the negative effect brought by the emergency to the greatest extent. However, the occurrence of unexpected events have extremely strong unpredictability, and with the passage of time and take emergency measures, emergency scenario and highly dynamic and uncertainty. Therefore, on the basis of the evolution trend of the event, select the appropriate emergency scheme is the core issue of emergency management. Emergency decision is make full use of to obtain relevant information and limited social resources, to reduce the loss caused by emergencies and reduce its negative effects.In order to deal with emergencies in highly uncertain information more scientific and reasonable, this study will be introduced to the incident on the relevant theories of life cycle in the emergency decision, has carried on the research design, based on the perspective of system analysis, based on the characteristics of each stage and the information in the form of a corresponding processing method is proposed.(1) In order to respond to emergencies effectively, this study proposed the incident lifecycle oriented emergency decision-making. First of all, on the basis of the current achievement rich put forward the three stage of emergency emergency decision theory; Then, based on the phase analysis of the emergency decision-making target, characteristics and influencing factors; Further, this paper expounds the complete emergency decision-making process, including the preparation of the emergency decision-making, decision-making information gathering phase, the analysis of the key indicators, selection of solution phase and emergency decision-making report stage.(2) To resolve the problem of information is difficult to obtain in the incubation of emergency response, a method based on multiple granularity linguistic information and hybrid linguistic information for determining the response plan is proposed according to analysis of the incubation of disruptive incidents. First of all, the decision makers use non-uniform linguistic evaluation scale through the collection of information in the characterization of the key indicators of multi-granularity hybrid preference information, and use the multi-granularity switching function for consistency preference information processing; Further, the introduction of TOPSIS method to calculate the key indicators of weight coefficient; Then, using the preference granularity interval type linguistic information characterization of various contingency plans, and use the size conversion function more consistency processing; Finally, the comprehensive values obtained from the calculation of possibility of interval linguistic information of each alternative were determined to get the best alternative.The response plan of a flood was given to demonstrate the feasibility and practicality of the proposed approach.(3) For reflecting the complexity of emergency event and the characteristics of decision-makers'psychology and behavior in an effective way, an approach for selecting emergency alternative based on multi-granularity uncertain linguistic and prospect theory was presented. Firstly, multi-granularity uncertain linguistic variables were used to express the importance of each key attribute, and some transformation functions were used to unify the multi-granular linguistic phrases into a uniform linguistic label set. Secondly, the group evaluation vector of key attributes was obtained by using the uncertain expanded weighted average operator, then the weight of key attributes was got based on uncertain linguistic decision-making theory. Thirdly, the idea of prospect theory was introduced to calculate the values and the perceived weights of each key attribute's scene of emergency alternatives. Furthermore, according to combination of the weight of key attributes and the attribute perceived values of emergency alternatives, the comprehensive values of each alternative were determined to get the best alternative. A case study was given to illustrate the practicality and validity of the proposed approach.(4) For the sake of ensuring that a rational decision can be made on response to an emergency in its recession phase, a linguistic information and preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluations based method was worked out for making decisions on response to emergencies. Firstly, the weights of decision makers and attributes were determined by using the theory of linguistic decision making. Secondly, the extended weighted arithmetic average operator was utilized to combine given preference values of alternatives with weights of decision makers. Then the preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluations was used to deal with complex relationship between key attributes and alternatives. Finally, the best alternative could be determined based on rankings of alternatives'net flows. The recovery of a certain logistics park from a fire was given to demonstrate the feasibility and practicality of the method.