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Method And Empirical Research On Behavior Analysis Of Middle And High Level Emergency Decision-making

Posted on:2021-03-10Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y HaoFull Text:PDF
GTID:1366330632450890Subject:Safety science and engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Emergency decision-making is the center and core of emergency response.The spread of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic in different parts of the world proves that decision-making has a key impact on the development of the control situation,and once again triggers the whole society's attention and discussion on the government's emergency decision-making ability.Research on emergency decisionmaking behavior is a prerequisite for improving emergency decision-making ability and optimizing decision-making.In-depth understanding of decision-makers' emergency decision-making behavior has important guiding value for decision-making optimization.Limited by research methods and practical conditions,empirical research for high-level decision-making behavior is difficult to carry out.This article starts with exploring research methods,and proposes a "scenario-coping" research framework for decision-making behaviors with scenarios,decision-makers,decision-making processes,and decision-making as the core elements;and further selects and enriches experimental methods within the framework to propose emergency response.The drill is the specific research method for the generation,observation and analysis of highlevel decision-making behaviors of the carrier.The method builds emergency scenarios through drills,organizes decision makers who meet the requirements of the research object to participate in the drill,controls the decision process with the drill process,and uses the drill platform to observe the whole process of decision-making from multiple angles,obtain relevant data and samples,and complete the framework The collection of four elements.For the analysis of decisionmaking behavior,this paper is oriented to the global emergency decision-making,which is an important way in emergency decision-making.Taking the individual decision-making behavior of core decision-makers as the research object,the behaviororiented model of decision-makers in the adoption of recommendations is proposed as Basic decision maker classification,analysis method to describe decision performance with decision data.Finally,in order to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of this method,through our country 's large earthquake emergency command decision-making exercise for middle and senior government officials,we completed the construction of an earthquake disaster scenario,organized and implemented the exercise,collected decision samples,and extracted decision behavior and decision data.It is found that there are three types of decision-makers with different decision-making behavior styles: autonomous,cooperative and dependent,and descriptive evaluation of the decisionmaking behavior of each type of decision-maker through the decision-making performance of the decision-maker.There are differences in the adoption of suggestions and decision-making effects in decision-making,which will be of reference value for subsequent research on different strategies for improving the ability of decision-makers and decision-support optimization strategies.The study also validated the effectiveness of the "scenario-coping" decision-making behavior analysis framework,and realized the exploratory research on the high-level decision-making behavior in the early stage of earthquake emergencies.
Keywords/Search Tags:Methodological research, Decision-Making Behavior, Scenario-Response, Emergency Drill, Decision-Making Preference
PDF Full Text Request
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