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Research On Emergency Response Group Decision-making Based On Prospect Theory

Posted on:2019-11-08Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:W J LiuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2416330548982790Subject:Management Science and Engineering
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In recent years,all kinds of emergencies have a serious negative impact on the stability of human life and the development of social economy,such as accident calamity,terrorist attacks,natural disasters and the disappearance of “MH370” on Malaysia flights.When a catastrophic emergency occurs,the emergency decision makers usually need to take out a reasonable emergency response plan to reduce the negative impact.Among them,there are a large number of decision-making problems,in which group decision-making is an indispensable part of emergency management.However,different from the traditional decision problems,emergency response has the typical characteristics of group decision making,such as time pressure,incomplete information,error decision leading to disastrous results.Therefore,research on emergency response group decision making is an important concern.At present,a lot of researches are from the perspective of the expected utility theory.That is to say,the decision-maker is the “economic man” which is completely rational.However,in the event of an emergency response decision-making practice,due to the complexity and uncertainty of event evolution and destruction,the decision makers must make decisions in the premise of time pressure and huge risks.Decision makers' psychological behaviors can affect the decision results to deviate from the expected effect theory,according to the psychological characteristics of behaviors,showing reference dependence,loss aversion,sensitivity degression.The prospect theory in behavioral decision theory focuses on the risk characteristics,which coincides with the uncertainty in emergencies,and has a good ability to depict the psychological and behavioral characteristics of decision makers.In recent years,the decision making models based on prospect theory have attracted more and more attention from scholars.However,most of the decision-making models involve one emergency decision maker,which is not consistent with the reality.Nevertheless,in many emergency stages,especially in the response stage,decision makers come from different professional backgrounds,such as earthquakes,meteorology,fire protection,etc.At the same time,scholars simply used the weighted average method to aggregate decision makers' information,which is not enough to form group consistency results.How to better assemble information is also the key to group decision making.Based on the above analysis,the research on emergency response decision still needs further discussion.In view of this,a novel emergency group decision method based on theprospect theory is proposed in this paper.Considering the characteristics of unexpected events and emergency decision-making,emergency response decision is a risk group decision making problem based on multiple criteria.In this paper,a linear programming model is established to solve the optimal weight for group decision making with uncertain weight information.Because of the diversity of sudden emergencies and decision-making influence factors,the prospect theory describing the decision affects the psychological behavior of emergency decision-making results,applying interval mathematical theory to maximize the description of fuzzy information in the process of emergency decision-making and uncertainty.Moreover,nonlinear programming model is established to minimize the decision makers' preferences and group consistency results are achieved using plant growth simulation algorithm for decision makers of information gathering.Combining the above research points and applying it to emergency response decision making process,it can ensure more real and reasonable decision results.Therefore,this paper puts forward the emergency response method based on prospect theory research on group decision making,not only taking into account the influence of psychological and behavioral characteristics of emergency decision environment on the decision results,effectively solving the fuzziness and uncertainty problem of emergency decision information in the decision making process,but also obtaining the group consistency preference in order to ensure the scientificity and rationality of the final decision results.
Keywords/Search Tags:Prospect theory, emergency events, emergency response, group decision making, plant growth simulation algorithm
PDF Full Text Request
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