The Population Growth In Chinese History

The success in economy in ancient China comparing with the West World was actually a total economic prosperity. The economic growth as measured by per capita income was almost the same with other civilization. This kind of advantage of scale thanks to the large population of Chinese Empire, which has also been thought as an important reasen for transformation to modern economy. This study is an economic analysis on some factors which have affected traditional Chinese population growth and their long-term effect.A comparative study finds that there have been at least three characteristics in the history of China's population growth. The first, the gap of population between east and west was little in the first few centuries by the beginning of the Christian era, but the population of the Chinese empire had been far more than that in the West World for a long time since the collapse of the Roman Empire. However, considering resource and capital including livestock and arable, the per capita level of China was lower, and there was a long-term downward trend. The second, the development in rice area in southern China had been keeping pace with that in wheat area in the northern region in the first few thousand years since the onset of civilization, the North did not have an absolute advantage on the population, but in later years, the North quickly exceeded South, and became economic and demographic center and gravity of the Chinese Empire for a long time. However, at the latest in the second half of Tang Dynasty, the South had dominated in economy and demographic. The third, before the Semiannual Tax System, the China's population growth didn't engulf the fruit of technological advances and increase in arable land, and the per capita output and per capita income had raised. But after the Semiannual Tax System, the long-term population growth caused an enduring decline in per capita output and per capita income. The fourth, technological advances in ancient China mainly resulted in population growth rather than growth of per captia income. In comparing with the growth history in West World, it is not difficult to find that the same development was experienced by Europe, even after the starting of Industrial Revolution. Since the second half of 20th century, population growth rate was on the decline with the technological progress though the Malthus's shadow still precessed on China.This paper analyzes some factors' effect on China's long-term population growth, which are the initial geographical environment, the institutions including land and tax system, and technological progress. Firstly, comparing with West Europe, the climate of traditional farm area in China is conducive to develop multiple cropping system, and the loose soil in Northern China requires less capital, such as livestocks and iron farm tools. These two conditions mean that much more man can be carried in China than Europe in a same size land, and more likely to develop a labor-intensive production technology. However, traditional Chinese didn't have more experience in using large capital, animal and mechanical power. Especially, after the Song Dynasty, Chinese farmers had fewer opportunities to use livestock and large machinery. This, to some extent, explains how China would fall into the 'high-level equilibrium trap' as well as the difference of China's demographic change between north and south. Secondly, there was much proposal and practice to equal field in Chinese history. The analysis in chapter 4 suggests that the equal-field system would have special incentive for fertility, so equaling field by persons did help to lead to a higher steady-stable level of population and a lower per capita income, and didn't change the dynasty's destiny. Before the Semiannual Tax System, Chinese tax and corvee was dominated by and had been merging into toll tax, But after the system, dominated quickly by land tax. This transformation of tax system in history is analyzed in chapter 5, and it is found that although the tax system before Middle Tang Dynasty had been having inhibiting effect on population growth, maybe the change of tax system since implementing Semiannual Tax in Middle Tang released more population, which was help to get a higher steady-stable level of population, but prone to reduce per capita capital and per capita output. However, a higher stead-stable level of population meant that it needed more time to reach its peak for a dynasty, so it was good to prolong a dynasty's life. Finally, there had been technological advances for a long time but no significant economic growth measured by per capita income in ancient China since Song Dynasty. It was, comparing to the growth history in West World, not difficult to find that Europe also had had a similar experience. A model based on the nature of technological innovation found in chapter 6 suggests that productivity-oriented technological advances will make population growth rate rise when bringing to increase output, but consumption diversification caused by product innovation is prone to decrease fertility rate. Considering the economic history and technological history, it is easy to find that the technological advances in ancient China were mainly productivity-oriented, and there was lack of significant product innovation. Thus the technological progress in Chinese history since Song mainly resulted to population growth but economic growth.