| The demographic problems are the most important and problematic problems in the world.Actually,demographic includes such aspects as population growth,population density,ethnic composition,education level,health,economic status and other aspects.Currently,the global demographic problem manifests in such aspects and trends as fast population growth in the developing countries of Asia,Africa and Latin America and a sustained tendency of birthrate decline in European countries.As a result,ageing and depopulation resulting from narrowed population reproduction in some countries,what lead increase of the number and proportion of older people in society.Recently,population ageing has become one of the most researchable topic in the world.Population ageing has three possible causes:migration,longer life expectancy(decreased death rate)and decreased birth rate.Ageing has a significant impact on society.Young people tend to have fewer legal privileges(if they are below the age of majority),they are more likely to push for political and social change,to develop and adopt new technologies,and to need education.Older people have different requirements from society and government,and frequently have differing values as well,such as for property and pension rights.In the 21st century,one of the most significant population trends is ageing.[160]Currently,over 11%of the world's current population are people aged 60 and older and the United Nations Population Fund(UNFPA)estimates that by 2050 that number will rise to approximately 22%.The global economic crisis has increased financial pressure to ensure economic security and access to health care in old age.In order to elevate this pressure social protection floors must be implemented in order to guarantee income security and access to essential health and social services for all older persons and provide a safety net that contributes to the postponement of disability and prevention of impoverishment in old age.As of 1 January 2017,the population of Russia is 146,804,372 on January 1,2017.Russian total fertility rate of 1.78 children per woman.In 2013,Russia experienced the first natural population growth since 1990 at 22,700.In comparison with European countries,Russian's population indices are higher.There are many research about compare Russian's population and another countries.It is very important to analyze where is Russian' place in the population list of the world.In base on United Nations'and The World bank's databases,which includes such ratios as level of socioeconomic develop of each country.According to this,Russian position is in the middle,between young African countries and aging Europe.So,this position Russia will keep in 2050 year.Question is,how ageing declare of birth ratio and aging process exert influence on Russian' economic develop.Using econometrics model we try to answer this question.Chapter number four based on econometric regression model.Used variables is over aged population ratio and GDP at Purchasing power parity variables of 1990-2015 time series,the aim of this is study the effect of elderly increase ratios on economic growth,in particular on GDP at Purchasing power parity.But because not only over aged population influence economic growth,there many factors of influence,so,we should add some control variables,to make result more certainly.In our case this control variables are currency inflation and labor force participation rate.According to model's result we can say,that over aged population increase would have negative impact on GDP at Purchasing power parity growth.It is inverse relationship between variables,if over aged population ratio rise 1%ratio,it would involve GDP at Purchasing power parity decline.In conclusion we should say how important is to research population and economics jointly(collectively),and if we talk about Russian' condition the important point of demographic policy is birth rate increase.And in that case not only the government measures,but also the welfare program will become earnest of success. |
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