A Study On The Mechanism And Effect Of Demographic Changes On Residents' Consumption

By the impact of the world economic crisis,the demand from outside of China has been shrinking.The way of economic growth of relying on investment and export has seriously hindered the sustained and rapid growth of China's economy.China's economic growth has entered a new stage that is led by domestic demand.However,the stimulating effect of consumption on economic growth has weakened.At present,China's consumption is weak to the sustained and rapid of the economic growth.Expanding domestic demand has become the key to the transformation of China's economic growth mode and the rapid economic growth.Population is the main body of market economy activities and consumer,the state of population development in the process of expanding domestic demand plays a vital role.In the critical period of the transition of China's economic growth mode to inward-oriented growth mode dominated by expanding domestic demand,the study of China's consumption must grasp China's population changes,and take full account of the effects of the population factors on the consumption level and consumption structure.This paper attempts to classify population changes as natural change,social change and migration change.On the basis of relevant theories,this paper systematically explores the impact of population changes on consumption.This paper is divided into eight chapters to study the impact of population changes on the residents' consumption.Specifically:Chapter 1:Introduction.This chapter mainly introduces the research problems from the research background,and introduces the research purpose,the research ideas,the research contents and the research methods of this research.Finally,the possible innovations and shortcomings of this paper are summarized.Chapter 2:Literature Review and Theoretical Basis.Based on the definition of the concept of residents' consumption and population change,this paper reviews the domestic and foreign literatures on the relationship between population factors and consumption demands.In addition,this paper reviews and analyzes some theories,which provide the theoretical basis for this research.Chapter 3:The Analysis of the Present Situation and Influencing Factors of Chinese Residents' Consumption.Firstly,this paper analyzes the changing trend of the residents' consumption from the aspects of residents' consumption expenditure and consumption structure.We find the fact that Chinese residents' consumption is low and the gap between urban and rural is large.Then the reasons for the low consumption are discussed.Chapter 4:Analysis of the Trend of Population Change in China.To analyze the overall population trends,the population change is divided into three categories:population natural change,population social change,population migration changes.Chapter 5:The Mechanism of the Effect of Population Change on Residents' Consumption and the Hypothesis of Research.The paper analyzes the realization path,the mechanism or the influence effect of the population indexs which reflects the population natural change,the population social change and the population migration change on residents'consumption.And the research hypothesis is put forward according to the analysis result.Chapter 6:An 'Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Population Change on Residents' Consumption Based on the Perspective of Total.First,the correlation between the factors of demographic change and the per capita consumption expenditure of the residents is judged by linear fitting and pearson correlation analysis using provincial panel data from 30 provinces in addition to Tibet in 2000 to 2014.Then,the dynamic panel data model is constructed,and the GMM estimation method is used to test the effect of population change on the per capita consumption expenditure of the whole country,town and countryside.Chapter 7:An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Population Change on Residents' Consumption Based on Structural Perspective.Firstly,the gray relational analysis method is used to analyze the correlation between population change and urban and rural residents' consumption structure.Then,the population indicators are included in the linear ideal demand system(AIDS)model.So,the AIDS expansion model is constructed.Then,the seeming unrelated regression(SUR)method was used to estimate the impact of population change on the consumption structure of urban and rural residents.Chapter 8:Conclusion and Countermeasures.According to the results of theoretical and empirical analysis,the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to unite population development,expand domestic demand and optimize consumption structure to keep sustained and stable economic growth.The results of theoretical and empirical analysis show that the population change has a significant impact on the per capita consumption expenditure of residents.And the impact of different population factors on the national,urban and rural residents'consumption is more consistent,but the degree of the impact and stability of the results are different.In addition,the birth rate,the old-age dependency ratio,the sex ratio of the population,and the employment proportion of the tertiary industry have a significant negative impact on the residents' consumption expenditure.The population mortality rate and above college rate have a significant positive impact on the residents' consumption.The impact of urbanization on the national and urban residents' consumption expenditure is positive,which has a negative impact on rural residents' consumption expenditure.Besides,it is found that the dynamic evolution of urban and rural residents' consumption structure is the objective existence.in the process of population change.The increase of birth rate,the decline of population mortality rate,the increase of old-age dependency ratio and the increase of population sex ratio are not conducive to optimize the consumption structure of urban and rural residents.Expanding the family size,optimizing the structure of population education and promoting the urbanization level of population are favorable to the optimization and upgrading of the consumption structure of urban and rural residents.But the change of population employment structure reflecting the social structure has an unobvious impact on urban and rural residents' consumption structure.It can be said that this study broadens the perspective and content and is conducive to a comprehensive understanding the effects of population change on the consumption.It can provide theoretical basis for the current and future how to adapt and use of population changes to expand domestic demand to promote the transformation of economic growth and economic sustained and stable growth.