Research On The Impact Of Changes In My Country's Population Structure On The Consumption Structure Of Residents

The growth of China's socialist market economy presents a "new normal" of medium-high speed development and is faced with multiple challenges and problems.Therefore,adjusting the economic structure has become an important requirement of China's supply-side structural reform.Based on macroeconomics,residents' consumption structure upgrade is the cause of promoting economic growth,it is the result of the development of economic growth,the growth of residents' consumption and the optimization of the consumption structure of the important reason of boosting the economy,as a result,the supply side structure under the background of reform in our country,optimize the economic structure adjustment in China must to advance the reform of the structure of consumer demand,the current structure constantly changing consumer demand,adjust the structure of consumer demand,transformation of economic structure is to adapt to the development of the socialist market economy rule and the supply side of the structural reform.Population,which is the core of the social and economic running,is not only the ultimate purchaser of goods and services,economic and social and economic and social development of the elements of the supplier,the problem of population structure in our country at present stage is mainly for the overall scale,population resources and environment is increasing,urban and rural structure imbalance,many aspects,such as the transition of the "new normal" population will inevitably to our country social economy development road,patterns,and the pace of a profound and far-reaching influence.This paper explores the influence and development trend of the changes in China's population structure on the dynamic evolution of residents' consumption structure.It divides China's eight items of residents' consumption expenditure into three types of consumption structure:subsistence consumption,enjoyment consumption and development consumption.Using the provincial panel data of China's mainland from 2005 to 2018,it studies the influence of population structure indicators on China's residents' consumption structure by using the generalized moment estimation(GMM)method.Then,the ARIMAX model of dynamic regressionmultivariate time series and BP neural network algorithm are combined to design a combined forecasting model,and the development trend of population structure index on the consumption structure of Chinese residents is studied.The three models are used to forecast respectively.According to the comparison of forecasting results,the effectiveness of the combined forecasting model in the prediction of residents' consumption structure is verified.The research shows that: the population structure has a significant impact on the consumption structure of residents;the urbanization of the population and the improvement of the education level have a significant positive impact on the development-oriented consumption expenditure;the aging and the increase of the sex ratio(male/female)will weaken the enjoyment-oriented consumption expenditure;China's residents' consumption expenditure has a strong consumption inertia.Consumption habits and residents' income are the key factors affecting the consumption structure of China's residents.In the process of upgrading the consumption structure,subsistence consumption will still be the main level of consumption in China,but with the balanced development and change of the population structure,China's consumption structure will be upgraded and optimized.The trend prediction research found that the combination model is better than the other two single prediction models in prediction accuracy.The combination prediction model constructed in this paper has good prediction performance.It can be seen that the survival consumption is still the main consumption expenditure of residents in China,the development consumption shows a continuous growth trend,and the enjoyment consumption is currently a relatively low consumption expenditure structure,and the growth trend is not obvious.It is expected to become a breakthrough point in upgrading the consumption structure.