Elite Formation, Society Stability And Economic Development

For quite a time, the theoretical frame system for elite theory has been complete, however, because of lack of large-scale microcosmic elite database, the empirical research about elite formation and its effect on society stability is still very weak. Based on literature review, theory elaborating and historical evidence, using original data base about officials in China tradition dynasty(including Yuan, Ming, Qing), adopting Multinomial Logit etc. method, with theoretical model about interest group, institution selection and the occurrence probability of civil war which are constructed basing on game-theory method, this article did embedded theoretical and empirical analysis on elite formation, society stability and economic development.This article distinguished the elite formation method by two kinds:one is ability-based method, another is relationship-based method, the former one reflects central government select officials by fair and transparent way, the latter reflects the partiality that central government given to interest group, such as absorbing the aristocrat and officials’offspring into dominance hierarchy through shelter etc. method. The result of Mlogit and Logit regression shown that:dynasty institution design, family power and ethnic policy had significant and important effect on elite formation, meantime, variables such as family power’s effect on elite formation were different among dynasties. Public supply institution had close relationship with elite formation, because public construction need specific officials, which were technical-officials to direct and inspect, and the success or failure about construction had close relationship with the ability of these officials, when central government paid attention to public goods supply, they would absorb these officials into government, and the ratio of ability-based officials would increase. On the other hand, based on theory of Besley&Persson (2008), when central government paid attention to public goods supply, the institution was construction type, in contrast, when they ignored public goods supply, the institution apt to be expiration type and several interest groups might appear, they got high revenue from the existing institution, having the incentive to keep their offspring in group, meantime, their strong economic power and social relationship guaranteed the realization of their incentive, then the ratio of relation-based officials would increase. Elite formation had important effect on civil war frequency, the empirical econometric results shown that every1%increase of the ratio of ability-based officials would decrease the civil war frequency by about4%. There were two mechanisms, the first one was social mobility mechanism, when the ration of ability-based officials was high, the mobility between elite hierarchy and common people was relatively strong, common people had the chance to be elite through his effort, and their political right demand was satisfied, then social contradict was relatively light; in contrast, if the ratio of ability-based officials was low, the circle between elite hierarchy and common people was cut off, social mobility was low and social contradict was intensified, then civil war frequency was relatively high. The second mechanism was ruling ability mechanism, ability-based officials’quality and ability were relatively high since the fair selection way, when the ratio of this kind officials was high, the scientificalness of government decision and the executive ability was high, and the government could solve social problems validly in time, avoiding extreme social contradict and civil war, in contrast, relationship-based officials got into ruling hierarchy by their family power, and their quality and ability were uneven, some of them were relatively high because of family education, but majority of them were low because of the lack of check and constraint, when the ratio of this kind officials was high, government’s ability of ruling and maintaining stability was relatively low, then the civil war frequencies were high. Moreover, society stability is the basis premise of economic development and society promotion. When society stability is high, civil war frequency is low, social production is on the normal track and the limited social resources, such as labor and capital will be put into production, economic development will achieve; in contrary, when society stability is low, civil war frequency is high, labor force will be reduced and production facility will be destroyed, less resources will be put into production, economic growth rate will be lower.