| The transformation and upgrading of bonded area is imperative as it is a transitional area of free trade zone. Shanghai free trade experiment area is established in September 2013 and Guangdong, Gujian, Tianjin are the new approved free trade experiment zones in December 2014. Under the background of transformation and upgrading of bonded area to free trade area, this paper tries to study the evolution problem of bonded area to free trade zone.Firstly, it studies the evolution effectiveness of bonded area to free trade zone. It establishes the evaluation index of evolution effectiveness and proposes the entropy-TOPSIS model. An empirical analysis is given base on the actual date of 12 bonded areas in China. The results show that Shanghai, Tianjin and Dalian are the top three bonded areas considering the evolution effectiveness.Secondly, it studies the comprehensive efficiency of bonded area. It analysis the effecting factors and establishes the evaluation index of comprehensive efficiency. The DEA model and DEA-malmquist index model are proposed to analysis the static and dynamic comprehensive efficiency of 12 bonded areas in China. The static empirical analysis shows that Shanghai, Tianjin and Zhang Jiagang are the top three bonded areas. The dynamic empirical analysis shows that Xiamen has the highest total factor productivity efficiency and Dalian, Tianjin and Zhang Jiagang are the second. It is the technological progress that leads to the differences results of static and dynamic empirical analysis. Shanghai bonded area has an obvious decline in technological progress and Xiamen bonded area has a good trend of technology progress.At last, it studies the catastrophe evolution of bonded area to free trade zone. A cusp catastrophic model is proposed, evolution effectiveness and comprehensive efficiency are control variables and state of evolution is state variable.The empirical analysis results show that the bonded areas in China are in A, B, D stages, and there is no bonded area in C stage. The fitting results of the model verify the evolution of bonded area to free trade zone is consistent with the mechanism of cusp catastrophic, normal factor is decided by the evolution effectiveness and comprehensive efficiency, splitting factor is decided by the evolution effectiveness. The probability of evolution in the four stages are different and the ranking is D>A>C>B. The evolution of bonded area to free trade zone is irreversible. The state of evolution is equilibrium outside the bifurcated region and the evolution will not happen. |
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