Study On The Effect Of Grain Subsidy Policies In Main Producing Areas

In twenty-first Century,according to the new trend of urbanization and industrialization,Chinese grain subsidy policy has changed from "price protection system" to "direct subsidies to grain farmers' grain direct subsidies,agricultural comprehensive subsidies,Crop seed subsidies,subsidies for livestock breeding,the purchase of agricultural machinery subsidies and agricultural insurance premium subsidies were carried out during 2002-2007.So far they have covered most parts of the country.According to the current China grain subsidy policy system,grain direct subsidies and agricultural comprehensive subsidies are collectively referred to as income subsidies.The form of transfer payments can directly increase the income of farmers,to prevent the negative impact from the rising cost of seeds,fertilizers,pesticides and other factors;crop seed subsidies and the purchase of agricultural machinery subsidies are referred to as production subsidies.They greatly improve the e:fficiency and quality of grain production,and achieve grain scale and regional production.In the past 10 years,Chinese expanding grain subsidies greatly improve the farmers' income level and grain production efficiency.But it can not be denied that,since the implementation of the grain subsidy policy it exists many problems,These directly weaken the effect of grain subsidy policy.Cognitive on these problems can not only stay at the theoretical level.We need to carry on the discussion from the angle of mathematical quantification,obtain the conclusion and do some adjustment and improvement.It has important theoretical and realistic significance for the adjustment of Chinese grain subsidy policy in the new period,the protection of national grain security,breaking the urban and rural structure,implementation of the transfer of rural surplus labor force etc..In 2014,the Party Central Committee Document No.1 put forward:"to ensure national grain security" as the first of six major tasks.And pointed out that " the new subsidies inclined to grain and other major agricultural products,new agricultural business entities,the main producing areas","To carry out the subsidies pilot according to the actual grain planting area or output if the areas' conditions are ripe,improve the accuracy and directivity of the subsidies." These authoritative discourses reflect that the Party Central Committee understands the disadvantage of the grain subsidy policy in the past and the direction of agriculture adjustment in the future.According to the current situation of our country's grain safety,the grain subsidies policy and the spirit of the central commission's documents,this paper mainly analyses the following problems:from a macro perspective,what is the effect mechanism of the grain subsidy policy?How the subsidies policies affect the grain production and the farmers' income?How was the efficiency of the grain subsidy policies in major grain producing areas from 2004 to 2012?If there was lack of efficiency,which areas should be improved?From the policy supply and demand perspective,which factors affect the efficiency of the subsidy policy?What kind of effect on the decision-making behavior of farmers under the different occupation pattern?Based on the above problems,this paper puts forward the following research contents:Content 1:the mechanism and effects of grain subsidies policy in main grain producing areas.By constructing the microeconomic model and peasant household model of income and production subsidies policy and drawing on the previous research results,the thesis analyzes the impacts on the income increase and grain increase brought by income and production subsidies,builds econometric model by using the panel data of main grain producing areas,and makes empirical study on the policy effects.Content 2:the efficiency and affecting factors of grain subsidies policies in main grain producing areas.Based on the theories of operational research as well as statistics theory,optimization thoughts of the grain subsidies policy efficiency evaluation system are proposed.The evaluation of static and dynamic,projection analysis,time and space analysis and clustering analysis of the efficiency of grain subsidies policies in thirteen main grain producing areas are conducted by adopting the optimization system.From the perspectives of government decision-making and farmers reaction,further research on the multiple factors that affect the efficiency of the subsidy policies are conducted.Content3:the analysis of the impact of grain subsidies on farmers' micro production behavior.Based on the new classical economics super marginal theory,farmers' decision models under different career modes are established.Under the hypothesis of "continuum",the conversion conditions from non pro-grain production patterns to pro-grain production patterns are analyzed,and the roles of grain subsidies played in the process are discussed aswell.By using the survey data to investigate the subsidies,the impacts of the variables offamily and individual characteristics on the micro production behaviors of farmers' in boththe north and the south are explained.Based on the above research,the thesis has come to the following conclusions.Conclusion 1:income subsidies and farm machinery purchase subsidies result insignificant grain increase.The estimation results of the threshold model of the provincialpanel data in the main grain producing regions show when the income subsidies is aroundthe given threshold,the sown area of grain and fertilizer input in grain production input andoutput elasticity is significantly improved,which indicates that the impact of incomesubsidy on grain yield in the main producing regions is nonlinear system.Specificallyspeaking,when the income subsidies on the 4.075 ends of the log,planting area andfertilizer input and output elasticity of factors increases from 0.774,0.295 to 0.780,and0.305 respectively.In addition,if the agricultural subsidies are over the critical value(subsidies log 2.459)a little more or less,the output elasticity of total power of agriculturalmachinery will undergo changes from 0.096 to 0.104.Therefore,income subsidies and farmmachinery purchase subsidies will result in grain yield increase which is reflected in theincrease of grain planting area,fertilizer input and total power of agricultural machinery.Threshold effects are quite significant.Conclusion 2:the effects of income subsidies and farm machinery purchase subsidies tothe farmers,income are significant,but there are differences in the mechanism.In thefourth chapter,after building the subsidy income effect model,threshold model estimationresults are as follows:? Direct effects on income subsidy to the farmers,net income issignificantly positive,but the path of the sown area of grain subsidy by raising the outputelasticity to the indirect effect of increasing farmers' income is not significant,indicatingthat the income subsidies,although the increase in farmers income,but it is still difficult tolink the income increase with the output increase effectively.?The direct effects of thepurchase of agricultural subsidies to farmers,income is not significant,but if the subsidiesare at both ends of the threshold,there will be significant difference between the originalvalue of fixed assets.To be more specific,when the per capita purchase of agriculturalsubsidies are on the both sides of 5.333 of the log,the income elasticity of productive fixedassets original value are 0.355 and 0.364,which shows that the subsidies of agriculturalpurchase,by influencing the stock and structure of productive capital,can provide further approach to enhance the farmers production capacity and their income as well.Conclusion 3:the efficiency of subsidy policy in main grain producing regions is much higher,and the low efficiency is the key affecting factor which differentiates the result of weak DEA from non-DEA in some areas.In the fifth chapter,based on the non parametric K-S same distribution test theory of "Variable Method for Removing Baseline Model",the evaluation efficiency of subsidy policy is established.Based on the DEA analysis of the input and output index data in main grain producing regions,the results show that there were nine DEA in the policy of grain subsidies in thirteen major grain producing regions in2012,and the number is in a rising trend in recent years.From the aspect of the subsidy policy of pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency average,the low scale efficiency causes the invalid DEA and weak DEA efficiency.The pure technical efficiency of 11 main grain producing regions was 1 in 2012,and the subsidies in the efficiency frontier,so there's no need to adjust the input subsidies.As for the two non effective areas--Hebei and Anhui,projection analysis results show that there is not redundant input in the three input subsidies in Hebei;but there is much room for improvement in the implementation of grain output and farmers' net income of two policy objectives.Comprehensive agricultural subsidies in Anhui are redundant,compared to the target value,there existing output deficiency in grain output and farmers,net income.Conclusion 4:progress has been made in grain subsidies productivity of main producing regions,which could mainly result from pure technical efficiency,scale efficiency and technical progress.The proportions of agriculture,distributingform,reliance of agricultural income and subsidies level have obvious influence on the efficiency of grain subsidies.Due to the defects of insufficient account of DEA model for frontier change at different time points,and incapablity of reflecting technological progress,chapter 5 uses malmquist index analysis,and the conclusion is made as follows:the productivity index of grain subsidy policy averaged 1.057 from 2004 to 2012,with a growth rate of 5.7%,which indicates that the production efficiency has been improved to some extent as a whole.From the point of view of index structure,the comprehensive technical efficiency index and Technology change index average 1.053 and 1.004 respectively,greater than 1,indicating that the improvement of subsidies productivity depends on the increase of comprehensive technical efficiency and technical progress.The variation index of pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency are 1.026,with a growth rate of 2.6%,which have the same impact.The conclusion proves that grain subsidy policy has made some achievement in both subsidy execution and scale production levels.Theproportion of agriculture,distributing form,reliance of agricultural income and subsidieslevel are significantly and positively correlated with grain policy efficiency,which isconcluded by the analysis of affecting factors of policy efficiency from two aspects:the government and households.Conclusion 5:grain subsidies have an effect on the farmers' microecomic productionbehavior,which includes continuous influence and jumpy influence.From the view of newclassical economics,chapter 6 builds a model to explain how the subsidy policy affectsfarmers' microeconomic production behavior by the method of inframarginal analysis,inwhich farmers,production behaviors are divided into 7 patterns,and analyzes the impact ofgrain subsidies on the farmers,which also includes mechanism in pattern and jumpymechanism.The conclusion are as follows:? grain subsidy policy could promotethe increases of contracted land of big farmers,raise grain production scale and thelevel of specialization,and also promote the pattern shift from cash crops to grain and thereturn of migrant workers.To achieve the latter two effects,grain subsidy policy should belinked to the price of non-grain crop and household size,?grain subsidy policy couldpromote the pattern shift from part-time farmers to grain specialized farmers.But theoccurrence of effect depends on the specific standard related to both the price of cashcrops/grain and farmers' initial non-agricultural degree.? the effectmight become complicated because of the heterogeneity of farmer and the differentregional condition.The difference of household size and the pattern of original productionbehavior would make it difficult to determine its result exactly.Conclusion 6:income-type subsidy is the main subsidy type which improvesthe productive positivity of farmers and makes production behavior change.Based onthe theory model and farmers' survey data in main producing areass,the empirical tests are conducted,which are about the actual effect of grain subsidy policyon farmers' microeconomic production behavior in the North and South of China.Theconclusion shows that income-type subsidy is significantly and positively correlated withgrain acreage,the share of grain acreage in land and the farmers,will of production.Theabove indicates that income-type subsidy plays an important role in the change of farmers'production pattern,the improvement of grain production scale and thelevel of specialization,and the return of migrant workers,which exists in both the north andsouth regions.The farm machinery purchase subsidy has no significant influence on grain acreage,the share of grain acreage in land and the farmers' will of production in bothnorth and south regions,which shows that the above subsidy is of weak effect oncareer mode selection of farmers and the improvement of specialization level of grainproduction.In this respect of the role on farmers' microeconomic productionbehavior,selective seed subsidy is similar to agricultural machinery purchase subsidy.There is no significant correlation between these two subsidies and production behavior,and they are only positively correlated with the share of grain acreage in land in thesouthern area,indicating that these subsidies can change farmers' behavior and increase thelevel of grain production.In summary,compared with past research,the development and contribution of thispaper is as follows:(1)This paper provides a new method for the study on the effect of grain subsidypolicy.In previous study,the standard and scale of grain subsidy were usually regarded ascore variables in model,which can't really reflect mechanism of subsidies.Based on theoverview ofcorrelation study,this paper carries on the theories analysis of the effect of subsidies policy,and investigates the direct and indirect effects of income-type subsidy andmachinery purchasesubsidy on grain output and farmers' income,and also measures the non-linear character ofsubsidies influence on policy objectives,which might provide a new valuable way ofestablishing provide a new valuable way of establishing model and can be widely used.(2)This paper also makes some contribution in the field of subsidies' influence onfarmers' production behavior and career model,and differential subsidies according todifferent regions.In the course of industrialization and urbanization,the farmers at presentcan5t be assumed to be regarded as net producer of grain.From a "continuum" perspective,the paper treats the farmer as a aggregationof producer and consumer,analyzes the impact including mechanism in pattern and jumpymechanism which subsidies bring about in 7 career patterns,and then presents therecommendations of differentiation strategy of subsidies according to the distribution offarmers' production behavior,which provides a practical path for the implementation ofdifferent subsidies and the improvement of subsidy efficiency.