Study Of Agricultural Index Insurance Products And Their Suitability

As the frequent occurance of natural disaster and increasing market risks in Agricultural production,to built effective risk management is an important way to insure the steady production ofAgriculture in our country.Agricultural insurance plays an irreplaceable role in it,but the traditional setting loss exploration agricultural insurance remains intrinsic managerial and technical difficulties.Under the premise of objective standards,agricultural index insurance products are more scientific and reasonable,and they can improve the performance of traditional agricultural insurance well.In the Central First Document of 2007-2017 and ?Several Opinions about Speeding up the Development of Modern Insurance Services? issued by the State Council in 2014,the development and innovation of agricultural insurance were both mentioned.But currently the study concerning it is far from perfect.Among which,the core technical problem of meteorological index insurance has not been effectively resolved,the study about yield index insurance has not formed mature framework,the study of income index insurance has been on the initial stage,in addition,the suitability comparative study about various index insurance products in different regions stays blank.On this condition,the main work of this study are: based on literature review,firstly,we systematically analyze and review the designing features and technical difficulties of existing agricultural index insurance of weather,yield and income,and their situation and weak point in application,as well;then,taking maize of Shandong province as example,we respectively study and design index insurance on the base of risk regional planning,wind and rain lodging on the base of symbiotic factor,and income index insurance based on Census-ARIMA;at last,through comparisons of scientific features of all kinds of index insurance,combining the characteristics of objective disaster risks of all the cities of Shandong province,we carry on the research upon the suitability of maize index insurance.Contents and conclusions in details are:(1)The features and technical difficulties of the study on agricultural index insurance.We have systematically analyzed features and technical difficulties of weather index insurance products and yield index insurance products.The necessity and their design ideas are analyzed.Through the summary of all kinds of technical difficulties in every step of designing,we form theoretical backbone for further designing on technical level.(2)The current situation and shortcomings of application of agricultural insurance.We focus on systematic analysis of current situation and shortcoming of agricultural index insurance application.And we briefly analyze features and shortcoming of two representative pilots of yield and income index insurance.On the base of that,we give product designing enlightenment concerning existing index insurance products pilots.Through the summary of scientific shortcomings of pilots,we provide theoretical backbone for further designing on practical level.(3)Study of maize yield insurance product based on regional risks.The research basis are the systematic summary of study about existing yield insurance product on levels of the choice of regional risks,the choice of coverage,and the correction of rating and so on.The research objects are the related data of maize production in 17 cities of Shandong province from 1993-2015,first of all,we carry out trend yield fitting and yield reduction separation by HP filtering model,initially setting the yield insurance rate of each city by burning pricing;then taking 8 main risk indexes of maize growth,we set 4 kinds of principal components using PCA,and combine AHP weight analysis to get the ranking of disaster-affected cities among the province,combining difference between disaster-affected cities in theory and in reality,we modify the rating of yield index insurance.The conclusions are: taken the amount insured as 400 RMB per mu as the basis,maize yield rating of each city among Shandong province varies from one another,the highest one is Weihai city,which is 18.85 RMB per mu,while,the lowest one is Zaozhuang city,which is 8.16 RMB per mu,the former is 2.31 times of the latter one,therefore,it is necessary to carry on the premium partitioning principle.(4)Study of Maize wind and storm lodging insurance products based on symbiotic factor.The research basis are the systematic summary of problems about regional features,products characteristics and choice of crops during the study of weather index insurance products,the research objects are the related data of maize production in Ningyang county,Shandong province from 1984 to 2015,through the analysis of fitting features of all kinds of trend yield,using HP filtering and regression analysis model,through systematic analysis of disaster-inducing factors during maize growth,we set the ?symbiotic? wind and storm lodging index of maize of two growth periods;through formation of 3 groups of fuzzy mathematic sequence representing weather yield,using ?LSD? analysis,we make it ascertain that there's indifference relation between HP filtering model and wind and storm lodging index;at last,through the analysis of risk management features of all kinds of insurance pricing models,we choose index pricing model to set the relation between weather yield and wind and storm lodging,and finally set maize weather index insurance rate.The conclusions are: maize costs as 400 RMB per mu,the net premium of maize wind and storm lodging index insurance is 9.61 RMB per mu in Ningyang county,Shandong province.(5)Study of maize income insurance products based on Census-ARIMA.The research basis are the literature review of existing income index insurance products,the research objects are bid price of national standard third class maize of 4 main maize production and acquistion areas in Shandong province from 2007.1-2016.10 and per unit yield data from 1984-2015,using Census model which is suitable for month data trend separation,we fit the income trend sequence,and separate income fluctuation sequence;using ARIMA model which give full consideration of trend factors and random disturbance factors,we predict trend income of next period;using the nonparametric kernel density estimation function,we set maize income index insurance premium.The conclusions are: the premium of 4 cities in Shandong province are:Dezhou(0.0153),Heze(0.0103),Weifang(0.0154),Zaozhuang(0.0133).There's significant difference among the premium of these 4 cities,it is necessary to carry on the premium partitioning principle.(6)Study of suitability of maize index insurance products.Combining scientific features of three kinds of index insurance products mentioned above,we first analyze their features of suitable objective risk,then with objects of the practical risk features faced by maize production of each city,we choose indexes suitable for maize index insurance products in every city,using factor analysis model to study their suitability in each city.The conclusions are:There's significant difference among the suitability of index insurance,in some cities,all kinds of products are relatively suitable,while,in some other cities,none of them is suitable,and the number and type of products suitable for each city are different,too.