| With the continuous development of China’s social economy, the real estate industry has gradually become an important pillar industry of China’s national economy.In the modern economy, real estate is no longer only as a basic production and living needs of people to meet the physical assets exist, more to show the characteristics of virtual assets, which makes the real estate as an important investment in the economy products. In addition, due to the real estate industry and other industries also have a high degree of relevance, the rapid development of real estate for China to improve the employment environment, improve people living standards and promote social macroeconomic growth has a very important role. At the same time, the continuous improvement of the market economy system makes the money capital in the high return on capital flows to the industry more quickly. Real estate prices continue to rise to expand the social speculative psychological needs. Investor excessive speculation can easily lead to the formation of the entire real estate. Although the current stage of the community has not yet reached a real estate bubble will bring the consensus of financial risks, but for the potential real estate bubble risk issues have been the focus of attention from all walks of life.Real estate as a typical capital - intensive industries, it has a natural financial industry inextricably linked. On the one hand, the supply and demand sides of real estate are dependent on the financial industry’s financial support, and the real estate financial system there is a high degree of dependence on the characteristics of bank credit, the proportion of other sources of funds is very small. On the other hand, the development of the real estate industry into the boom period, for the financial industry means to be able to obtain a higher rate of return on credit capital, and thus more keen on a large number of banks in the social idle funds to credit The real estate industry,which shows that the real estate industry and the financial industry to penetrate the extent of the very high. The financial industry in the real estate credit issuance of excessive concentration will be directly detrimental to the risk of bank dispersion, the country’s overall financial system by the real estate market operating conditions will inevitably continue to accumulate, until the bank or financial system exposed to the real estate market price fluctuations and the risk of bubble burst. Therefore, it has a great significance to systematically study the causes of the real estate bubble and the formation mechanism of financial risk in China, to seek and explore the countermeasures to prevent and appropriately resolve the financial risks caused by the real estate bubble, and to ensure the security of the financial system and promote the steady development of the real estate industry, as well as the sustainable development of socio-economic.The purpose of this paper is to analyze the causes of real estate bubble and the measure of price bubble, depth analysis of the real estate prices of the various factors and the formation of the real estate bubble mechanism, so that the public and speculators on the real estate bubble to produce a rational understanding. Then combined with the status quo of real estate financial system, the paper further analyzes the real estate financial system of international comparison. This paper attempts to design the financial risk early warning mechanism under the background of the real estate bubble, and at the end of the article, combined with a series of experience and inspiration from other countries, this paper puts forward the countermeasures to better prevent the financial risks caused by the real estate bubble, in order to be able to properly control the potential risks before and during the emergence of the bubble,thereby mitigating or eliminating the negative impacts caused by the real estate bubble.The specific arrangements are as follows:The first chapter is the introduction, elaborates the research background and significance of this article, combs the domestic and overseas related research course and the achievement, and introduces the research content and the structure, pointed out the research method and the innovation place.The second chapter analyzes the current situation of the real estate bubble, carries on the comprehensive summary to the related content of the real estate bubble, this paper analyzes the present situation of real estate bubble in China, and analyzes the causes from the macroeconomic, bank credit, investor behavior, real estate characteristics and related system.The third chapter is about the empirical part of the real estate bubble, though the analytic hierarchy process to analyzed China’s real estate market bubble over the past decade the overall situation and the bubble situation of 35 large and medium cities in 2014.The fourth chapter analyzes the present situation of financial risk, analyzes the related contents of financial risk, analyzes the financial problems existing in our country by comparing overseas real estate financing system,and finds out the shortcomings of real estate finance in our country.The fifth chapter is based on the bubble background, the empirical study of financial risk early warning. Through a comprehensive overview of the relevant content of the financial risk warning, to constructing Financial Risk Early Warning System, this paper analyzes the financial risks of real estate in China in recent five years.The sixth chapter is a combination of overseas cases, the successful experience of the real estate bubble background against financial risks are summarized, for the development of China’s real estate industry to provide a good reference.The seventh chapter is the conclusion and prospect of the research, summarizes the research of this paper, draws the corresponding conclusion, and points out the shortcomings of this study, and prospects the future research of the related content.Through the study of real estate bubble and financial risk, this paper mainly draws the following conclusions:First, through the analysis of the causes of the bubble, it is confirmed that the change of the macroeconomic environment is the cause of the real estate bubble. The market economy system is the foundation of the real estate bubble. The financial support provided by various financial institutions to real estate enterprises and the globalization of capital flows are important drivers of the real estate bubble.Second, the factors that affect the degree of real estate bubble mainly from the real estate industry, credit, investment, trade and price four aspects. Investment and price have a greater impact on the degree of the bubble. By measuring the index system of foam from these four aspects, this paper makes a study on the degree of real estate bubble in China and the real estate bubble degree of 35 large and medium cities in China in 2014. It is found that the overall bubble level of real estate in China has been in the last ten years are in the middle of the level, after five years of the bubble is much higher than the previous five years, the degree of the bubble reached the highest in 2013.In 2014, with the exception of a few cities, the vast majority of cities in the real estate bubble level is in the middle level, there is a large bubble in the real estate market.Third, through real estate development total investment / total investment in fixed assets, real estate investment growth rate / GDP growth rate, house price income ratio,average price growth rate of commercial housing / GDP growth rate, real estate development enterprise asset-liability ratio, real estate enterprise quick ratio, Real estate loans / financial institutions loan balance of seven indicators, to build a real estate financial early warning index system and make a study on the real estate bubble risk index of China in the past five years. It is found that China’s financial risk index is above 70 in five years, and the financial risks faced by the real estate industry are generally not high. But in five years of data, the 2013 financial risk index is the smallest,indicating that the real estate industry in the year facing greater risk. The financial risk index for 2014 was also low, just above 2013, indicating that the year was also facing greater financial risk.Fourthly, on the basis of analyzing the current situation of real estate price bubble and financial risk, this paper combines the empirical results of China’s real estate price bubble and financial risk, and analyzes of Japan, the United States and Hong Kong to prevent financial crisis success stories, this paper puts forward the following recommendations: ①careful implementation of financial liberalization, to prevent excessive financial liberalization;②active use of macro-control policies;③the constraints of local government behavior, to reverse the unreasonable expectations of the people;④appropriate decentralization, improve the land tax system;⑤effectively manage and resolve serious excess demand;⑥strengthen the management of real estate loan quality, attach importance to the risk of real estate loans;⑦improve the regulatory mechanism and risk management of financial derivatives;⑧perfect personal credit information system, prevent credit risks. |
PDF Full Text Request