Measurement And Urban Real Estate Bubble Warning

As a pillar industry of the national economy, the real estate industry plays an importantrole in the economic development of the country for a long time. Once the real estateindustry occurs bubble, which is one of the main carrier of the economic bubble, then theconsequences for the entire economy is devastating. The most typical example in theworldwide is Japan’s bubble economy whose scale is unprecedented occurred in the late1980s. Our country in the early1990s experienced the ups and downs of the real estateindustry as well.Because of the close relationship between the real estate industry and the nationaleconomy and people’s lives, it’s not difficult to imagine the real estate bubble has becomethe most concerned and controversial issues in the whole society. The method toeffectively deal with the real estate bubble is worth discussed in greater depth.Firstly, in the perspective of both history and current status, the article introduced the realestate development background. And then discuss the role and effect that the real estateindustry will play in the national economy to analysis the significance of the research.For the theoretical reviews of the real estate bubble, the author did the macroscopicstudies to summarize and contrast test methods and measurement methods respectively,and made the microscopic description of theoretical research of status quo both at homeand abroad. Further, this article discussed the real estate bubble formation mechanism inthe aspects of the concept and related discrimination of the real estate bubble, causes andresults may lead to hazardous, providing a qualitative basis for subsequent quantitativeanalysis and modeling.In full understanding of the real estate bubble, the author then extracted indicators usingprincipal component analysis. And after the variables passing unit root test andco-integration test, we established error correction model among real estate prices andthe economic base variables and economic variables to measure the size of the expectedbubble, afterwards conducted empirical analysis using Beijing data as a sample. Since themeasure of real estate bubble is a kind of post-test and analysis, lack practicalimplication from the microscopic point of view. Therefore, in subsequent chapters, wepropose the establishment of the real estate bubble early warning system. Through thestudy of coordination between real estate development and external economy, internal structure to adapt to the state of the construction and industrial real estate market supplyand demand relations, the author design a heat index and industrial real estate marketbalance indicator used to calculate the final health index. Therefore, make sure that priorsupervision of the real estate market. Similarly, re-run the data from previous years inBeijing as a sample to build early warning systems, the outcome is the same as previousreal estate bubble measurement. Finally, the study results were summarized and theauthor made suggestions about healthy development of real estate market in theadjustment of industrial structure, improving the supply and demand relations; regulatingthe land market, to accelerate land reform; improving the financial system to curb therisk at source; sound development proposals early warning information to guide rationalbehavior and other aspects.