Study On Real Estate Bubble Early-warning And Police Of Tian Jin City

In recent years, along with the economical fast development, our country's real estate industry also entered another round booming cycle, maintained continuously the high speed growth in many years, and have formed close contacting with more than 40 industries it have became one of biggest industrial which have the power to affect the national economy. But the real estate industry in the fast growth time often bring bubbles, this kind of bubble will be disillusioned during the recession will have the deathblow to the national economy. In view of this, establishes the real estate bubble early warning system to guard against the risk to have the important theory and the practical significance.This article is based on the theory of early-warning theory of macroeconomic and has further discussion about current methodologies of early-warning system of real estate. Combining the characteristics of the periodically fluctuation of real estate market, it researched to build the structure of early-warning model of real estate. This article takes Comprehensive simulation method as main line that early-warning system design. Using principal component analysis we get the weight and contribute rate of different index. Different early-warning index comprehend the comprehensive early-warming index of Real Estate. This article also takes index smooth method to forecast different early-warning index.The article utilizes the new construction the early warning model to carry on the empirical analysis to the real estate market of Tianjin, the result demonstrate the development of Tianjin real estate market is health. But in 2006, it hit the basic normal upper limit. If the government does not implement suitable policy .the real estate market of Tianjin will have the overheated risk. Therefore, the article adopt the industrial policy theory as the instruction, proposed the corresponding industrial policy suggestion prevents and reduces this kind of harm.The establishment of real estate early-warning system discussion in the paper will provides a more clear view for people to understand the working mechanism of early-warning system, and is of great realistic and theoretical significance of the practice in real estate market.