Research On China’s Steel Industry Transformation And Upgrading Based On The Supply-side Refrom

At present,China’s steel industry is trapped both at home and abroad.China has entered the medium and later period of industrialization,and several biggest steel consumption industries run into the investment saturation and demand declination.The past development of steel industry driven by investment,export and consumption is accompanied by the problems of heavy pollution,high energy and resources consumption,low technical content and low additional value,which lies essentially in the over capacity of low and middle-end products and the under-supply of high-end products.Along with the high-end orientation of the global industry competition mode and the increasing pressure form resources and environment,the existed growth pattern of steel industry has severely encumbered the harmonious and sustainable development of economy and society.Meanwhile,the fatigued global economy,trade protectionism trend,and geopolitical factors also contribute to the shrinking of China’s steel export.Therefore,the harsh reality pushes China’s steel industry to seek for a more sensible development path,which help the dissertation determine its research object-the transformation and upgrading of China’s steel industry.The dissertation systematically analyzed the predecessors’ research ideas and practical experiences about the supply-side economic reform,as well as the steel industry transformation and upgrading,and made a conclusion that China is supposed to conduct the supply-side structural reform,not exclusive of rational attention to effective demand,in order to make a profound adjustment of steel industry structure,so that the predicament of steel industry can be resolved.Guided by industrial organization theory,industrial distribution theory,industrial upgrading theory and sustainable development theory,and based on the publicly available data of world Steel Industry Association,China Iron and Steel Association,National Bureau of Statistics,World Bank,the United Nations Database,etc.,the dissertation conducted the research by use of S-shaped Law of per capita consumption of mineral resources and per capita GDP,Industrial Sector Demand Forecast Method,and Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP).The research was mainly focused on the production capacity,product mix and capacitydistribution of China’s steel industry,and yielded the following results and understandings:1.The S-shaped Law of resources demand forecast was employed to forecast China’s medium and long term(next 15 years)steel demand trend and the rational steel production capacity.The steel consumption history of five types of countries in the world was analyzed in order to forecast their future steel demand.It was put forward that Asia,especially East Asia,would remain to be the steel production and consumption center in the coming decades.China’s crude steel demand and iron ore demand in next 15 years were also predicted against the background of referential economic situation(moderate economic growth plan).China’s rational steel production capacity in the future was speculated and the results were shown as well.2.Industrial Sector Demand Forecast Method was adopted to forecast China’s rational steel product mix in the future.The steel consumption of each main industrial sector was studied,and the medium and long term steel demand of each sector was predicted.The dependence matrix between steel consumption sectors and steel product varieties was constructed to explore the variation trend of steel product mix.It was concluded that the hot rolled steel,wire rod and bar,and pipe steel were still the focus of cutting overcapacity and structural upgrading,while the capactity of medium plate and the structural steel should be retained for their competitiveness in quality.3.Based on the systematical analysis of the steel demand trend of China’s each province and each economic region,the dissertation used AHP to establish an evaluation model of crude steel production capacity distribution,in order to make a quantitive evaluation of each province’s rational crude steel production capacity in the future.Furthermore,the comprehensive assessment was made for the future’s rational production capacity distribution of China’s seven regions,namely,North China,East China,Northeast,Central China,South China,West China,and Northwest.It was summarized that the eastern coastal area would be still the core region of China’s crude steel consumption;and the peak consumption per head of Midland,Southwest and Northwest was much lower than that of the East in the same economic stage,which showed the influence of economic transformation on resource consumption.4.Based on the above research,the dissertation proposed the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on the supply-side reform of steel industry:(1)Industry access restrictions should be strengthened,and the upper capacity limit is to be set.The exit barriers of excess capacity and illegal enterprises are supposed to be removed,so as to promote the merger and reorganization of the high-quality production capacity and superior enterprises.(2)Steel industry reform should emphasize the research and development of new varieties and scarce products in order to improve the international competitiveness,thus the investment in scientific research funds needs to be increased to promote the original and absorption innovation.(3)The ecological science and technology is to be infused into the industrial transformation.Moreover,the strict emission standards are to be set up and the compensation mechanism of ecological environment needs to be completed.(4)It is advised that the northen steel capacity be moved south and the construction of southern steel industrial park beaccelerated,so that the steel exports to ASEAN countries can be easier.(5)With the aid of thestrategic planning of “One Belt and One Road”,the export of steel production capacity can be promoted.