| “Resource conservation,environmental protection and economic development” are the themes of human society development,which are closely related to the coal-fired power industry.Considering the resources endowment,cost and technology advantages,coal-fired power will be the major energy form in China for a period of time.Therefore,how to deal with the relationship between the three themes,transforming to the circular economy has been a inevitable trend for coal-fired power industry.As a cleaner production and sustainable development way,coal-fired circular economy can reduce resource inputs during the production process,improve utilization rate of waste and reduce pollutant emissions,which generates obvious resource conservation and environment protection effects.However,under the current national economic accouting system in our country,the resource and environment effects of coal-fired power have not been scientifically defined and measured,the comprehensive benefits of coal-fired power circular economy can't guide enterprise to improve production mode and management decision-making.Moreover,related industries markert mechanisms limit the circular economy to expand production scale and production.Thus,all these limitations cause the “only circular not economic” problem for the coal-fired power circular economy chains.Energy conservation and emission reduction and waste recycling of coal-fired power circular economy are more reflected in the meaning of “demonstration”,which not only go against the development of coal-fired power circular industry,but also do not conform the requirements of sustainable development strategy.Given this,this paper taked the coal-fired power circular economy enterprise as the analysis object.Aiming at the “only circular not economic” problem for industrial chains,this paper studied the connotation and measurement of resouces and environment effects,system evolution mechanism,system optimization development path and operating state warning for coal-fired power circular economy,based on the theories of intergenerational equity,environment externalities,system dynamics and synergetics.This paper put forward a theory and method system for resouces and environment effects measurement and complex system simulation optimization analysis for coal-fired power circular economy industry,and the main research contents are as follows:Firstly,this paper studied the connotation of resouces and environment effects and the system complex features for coal-fired power circular economy.From the perspective of the strategic position,policy support and energy sustainable development,the comparative advantages and development modes of coal-fired power circular economy were elaborated;combined with the realistic problems of coal-fired power circular economy,the resource effects was disscussed from the perspective of resource generation cost saving,the environment effects was analyzed from cleaner production and waste reusing;and the complex features of coal-fired power circular economy system were disscussed,including open,dynamic,multiple levels and nonlinearity.Secondly,this paper studied the resource intergenerational fair discriminant,generation cost calculation and resource effects measurement for coal-fired power circular economy.On the basis of the connotation of resource effects,the resource intergenerational fair discriminant model from the perspective of fair-efficiency,and the the user cost measurement model based on intergenerational fair discriminant were put forward,which overcame the insufficients of traditional methods in intra-generation equity and resource usage efficiency;the resource intergenerational equity and generation cost in China from 2001-2014 were calculated;on this basis,the resource effects of cleaner production and sea water desalinization chians in a coal-fired power circular economy case were measured,which showed the coal resource effects of cleaner production was 0.0017yuan/kWh,coal resource effects of sea water desalinization was 0.175 yuan/ton,water resource effects of sea water desalinizaiton was 0.135 yuan/ton.Thirdly,this paper studied the measurement of willingness to pay assessment for atmospheric environment improvement and environment effects of coal-fired power circular economy.On the basis of the connotation of environment effects and its characteristics of externality and incomplete market,a measurement model for environment effects of coal-fired power circular economy was established based on the choice model.The questionnaire of willingness to pay assessment for atmospheric environment improvement was designed,and the willingness to pay was disscussed based on the multinomial logit model,which showed marginal willingness to pay and total willingness to pay of the ruduction of heavy pollution weather,decline of PM2.5 conventration,ruduction of acid rain weather,were 1.400~1.708yuan/month,0.901~0.923yuan/month,0.923~0.736 yuan/month and 2.929~3.367yuan/month,respectively;on this basis,the atmospheric envrionmental effects of a coal-fired power circular economy case with ultra low emission was calculated,which was 0.0146yuan/kWh.Fourthly,based on the analysis of causality in complex systems,the complex system dynamics model for coal-fired power circular economy was established based on the system dynamics theory,which revealed the evolution mechanism of complex system.The modeling purposes,system boundary,and key influencing factors of coal-fired power circular economy system were determined;combined with the coal circulation economy system function value analysis,the coal-fired power circular economy system was divied into three subsystems,including power economic subsystem,resource reuse subsystem and environment development subsystem;based on the interaction relationship analysis of internal system and subsystems,the system internal causality loops for coal-fired power circular economy were discussed;and the system dynamic model,variables equations and parameters was determined.Fifthly,aiming at the “only circular not economic” problem for industrial chains,the influence of considering resource and envrionmental effects for coal-fired power circular economy operation was analyzed,and the system optimization development path was researched based on multi-scenarios simulation analysis.The parameters and the validity of model were determined based on historical data,and the development problems of the coal-fired power circular economy operation was identified through the simulation analysis under the initial scenario;three development scenarios were provided in the perspective of considering resource and envrionment effects,enterprise production scale and comprehensive regulation,and thus the system optimization development path was analyzed;the operation status warning model of coal-fired power circular economy was established based on the order parameter equation of energy consumption per ten thousand yuan GDP.Research results showed: the operation status of coal-fired power circular economy system would be “low efficiency” in 2017-2020;if solving the industrial chains “only circular not economic” problem,the resource and envrionment effects of coal-fired power circular economy should be compensated through subsidies of feed-in tariff,desalination water price and building materials price,and establish and improve the mechanism of water and building materials market,increase the product sales quotas of circular economy,so as to improve the operating losses of circular economy industrial chains.This paper put forward the connotations and measurement of resource and environment effects for coal-fired power circular economy,established an analysis system of system simulation optimization,which expanded the breadth and depth of the circular economy system research,laid the theory and technology foundation of comprehensive benefit analysis and operation mechanism research of complex system for coal-fired power circular economy.At the same time,related research results can provide decision-making basises for government departments to improve management system and related industrial policies,enterprises to improve circular economy development strategies,which had a profound significance to the energy conservation and emissions reduction for coal-fired power industry and the sustainable development for the circular economy industry. |
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