Research On The Trade Sustainability And Potential Of China's Agricultural Products

With the prevalence of foreign trade protectionism,China's agricultural products has been implemented with high import tariffs,complex trade barriers measures and frequent anti-dumping investigations in many foreign markets,while some domestic factors such as land prices continue to rise,the demographic dividend gradually disappear,transport costs shoot up.China's agricultural trade costs also have gone up,and the products' competitiveness is weakening,trade continuity is seriously damaged,trade potential is facing enormous pressure.The current research shows that the cost of trade has a significant impact on the bilateral trade sustainability and trade potential of agricultural products.The study of trade flow has become more and more complete,but the trade flow is difficult to play a guiding role in the absence of appropriate reference system.In recent years,trade sustainability and trade potential have gradually been paid attention to by scholars because of the fact that trade continuity and potential are directly affected by factors that promote sustainability or impede sustainability.On the other hand,the sustainability and the potential of the trade between the two countries under certain conditions may be achieved in the largest trade scale and the possibility of future development of continuous trade.In this context,the study of the sustainability and potential of China's agricultural trade has become a very important subject.Unfortunately,most of the previous studies only consider them separately,or only analyses the impact of certain trade cost element on trade flows,and the policy recommendations are not deep enough.The difference of this paper is to comprehensively analyze the Estimates and influencing factors of China's agricultural trade sustainability,trade cost and trade potential based on the theory of sustainability,trade cost and trade potential,in order to find the new growth point of China's agricultural products trade flow,and put forward the measures to improve trade potential.Through theoretical and empirical analysis,we have obtained many important conclusions:(1)The problems of the sustainability of China's agricultural trade is mainly focused on the increase of dependence on imports of agricultural products,the increase of net imports,the decrease of net export products,and the decrease of comparative advantage of major agricultural products;China's agricultural products export market is highly concentrated,the market development ability is extremely scarce,although the dependence on Japan,the United States,Hong Kong has lightly declined,but he exports to the countries along The Silk Road Economic Belt has gradually improved.(2)The total trade cost of China's agricultural products has significantly affected the changes of trade sustainability and potential,and the total cost of trade is mainly composed of three core cost factors: man-made trade barriers,natural trade barriers and free trade agreements.During 1993-2013,the trade sustainability and trade potential is the overall upward trend,in which the higher trade potential of the trading partners are mainly come from Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe,the lower trade potential of the trading partners is mainly come from Western Europe,Northern Europe,North America and Australia and other regions;China's agricultural trade potential and man-made trade barriers(Agricultural policy cost,customs formalities,government efficiency,infrastructure level,tariffs and other factors)have the long-term equilibrium relationship,the above-mentioned trade cost elements will cause changes in China's agricultural trade potential value,but the impact of the variables vary from time and space dimensions,While China's agricultural trade costs in the BRIC countries and the The Silk Road Economic Belt are decreasing year by year,the level of trade convenience is increasing,and the trade sustainability and trade potential of Chinese agricultural products in the regions have long way to go.(3)The analysis of the impact of changes in trade costs and trade potential shows that if the national borders between all sample countries(60 major trading countries)are removed,the trade welfare growth in China and its trading partners is broadly distributed at 2% to 34%,the real GDP increased by an average of 12.97%,inward and outward multilateral resistance index increased by an average of 152.94% and 129.43%,which means that the cost reduction will promote bilateral trade sustainability.Besides,China's real GDP increased by 23.5%,inward and outward multilateral resistance will increase 61.87% and 254.98%,total agricultural expenditure will increase 87.4%.Based on the above analysis,this paper concludes with detailed policy recommendations,which is expected to promote the reduction of China's agricultural trade cost,promote the international competitiveness of Chinese agricultural products,and improve its trading conditions so to accelerate the long-term increase of trade sustainability of China's agricultural products in various countries and regions.Thus,China's trade transformation and sustained economic growth will be come true.