Research On Trade Potential Between China And Vietnam

Foreign trade is the driving force of the country's economic growth.In 2019,China's foreign trade volume reached a record high,while the total import and export volume between China and Vietnam reached US $116.87 billion,exceeding US $100 billion for the second consecutive year.2020 is the 70 th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Vietnam,and a critical period for the development of relations between the two countries.In 1991,Sino-Vietnamese relations were normalized.Although Sino-Vietnamese trade cooperation started late,Under the china-asean free trade area framework(CAFTA),Vietnam is a country with relatively close trade ties with China.Among the ten asean countries,Vietnam has become China's largest trading partner.Vietnam is located in the east of indo-china peninsula,bordering China in the north,and enjoys a favorable geographical position.At the same time,China and Vietnam have such common circle of friends as the “Belt and Road” and “Two Corridors and One Circle”.Therefore,China and Vietnam have a good basis for cooperation and broad space for development in the future.Although the trade between China and Vietnam has been fruitful and the trade volume between China and Vietnam has increased steadily,the trade between China and Vietnam still has problems and hinders the development of trade between China and Vietnam.Therefore,we need to study the trade development between China and Vietnam,promoting trade development between China and Vietnam is the research focus of this article.This paper combed the related theory and the existing literature,related theory and method of study,Based on this,based on the relevant data on trade flows between China and Vietnam from 1991 to 2018,it mainly includes the total trade volume,trade growth rate,dependence relationship,import and export trade structure,etc.The status of bilateral trade between China and Vietnam is analyzed in several aspects.Then,the trade gravity model is used to establish an aggregate trade model,export model,and import model for empirical analysis based on the panel data of China and Vietnam 's total trade volume,China 's total exports to Vietnam,and China 's total imports from Vietnam.Factors that have a significantimpact on the trade between China and Vietnam,and then measure the total potential,export potential,and import potential between China and Vietnam.Therefore,the following two conclusions are drawn: Vietnam 's GDP and trade facilitation level have a positive impact on trade volume,and distance has a negative impact on the trade volume between the two countries.According to the analysis of the results of the trade potential between China and Vietnam,the trade potential between China and Vietnam has the space to be explored,which is a potential development type.The potential of China's imports from Vietnam is greater than the potential of China's exports to Vietnam.Finally,based on the conclusions of empirical analysis,suggestions are made on how to tap the potential of trade between China and Vietnam.