Research On The Target Price Policy Of Cotton In China And Its Effects Based On Information Management

Target price reform of agricultural products is an important aspect of improving the price formation mechanism of agricultural products in the new situation.It is an important measure to adjust the relationship between supply and demand of agricultural products and give full play to the decisive role of market in the allocation of resources.Based on the theories of agricultural subsidy and motivation theories,this paper takes target price policy of cotton as the research object,predicts and evaluates its effects from the perspective of information management,which has important practical significance to understand the function and defects of target price policy of agricultural products objectively and further improve the policy design.The main contents and conclusions include three aspects.(1)The paper sums up the experiences in target price policy of agricultural products in the developed countries and the problems existing in the current p reform of cotton target price policy.By combing the evolution of target price policy of agricultural products and the specific mode of operation in the United States,Japan and South Korea,the paper analyzes and summarizes the enlightenment to our country: firstly,the target price policy of agricultural products can't be used independently;secondly,the implementation of the target price policy of agricultural products need to meet a series of implied conditions;thirdly,we must have a clear understanding of the defect of the target price policy of agricultural products.By comparing with our country's situation,the paper analyzes the existing problems and restrictive factors in the implementation of cotton target price policy in china.Then it presents that we should learn from international experiences,introduce of contract governance,clearly stipulates the rights and responsibilities of the participants,and limit the amount of government subsidies;at the same time,we should calculate the target price of cotton based on historical datas,accelerate the construction of big data system and the management information system of the target price subsidies,by which reduce the cost of policy implementation.(2)Using the information management method,the paper analyzes the influences on farmers' production behaviors from the policy implementation and the farmers' satisfaction about the policy quantitatively.Through collecting and processing the questionnaire survey data of cotton farmers in the inland 9 provinces and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,the paper forms cotton farmers' behavior dataset,according which the paper uses the methods of the nonparametric test,factor analysis and multiple regression analysis,analyzes the difference in evaluating the effect of the cotton target price policy from farmers in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and other 9 provinces as well as their satisfaction about the policy.The findings show: Xinjiang farmers have a higher level of satisfaction degree to the policy;farmers in the inland have a stronger willingness to reduce cotton planting scale,which prove that cotton target price policy is effective on the adjustment of planting structure of cotton and stabilizing cotton production in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.Even so,the greater of the planting scale the farmers have,the lower policy satisfaction degree is,and there was no significant difference on the planting scale of cotton farmers,which means that cotton supply elasticity is poor,and cotton production occupies an important position in Xinjiang region.The level of policy design,supporting measures and subsidy payment are the main factors influencing farmers' satisfaction.The government should adhere to the cotton target price policy reform,strengthen policy advocacy and guidance to the farmers,publish relevant supporting policies,and improve government policy design ability and capacity of policy implementation force.(3)The paper constructs the plantation production optimization model of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,simulates and researches the influences on cotton and plantation production in the Region by the implementation of cotton target price policy in both the short and long term.By collecting,collating and processing related data of plantation production in Xinjiang,the paper forms plant production dataset,according which the paper simulates and researches the influences on cotton and plantation production in the Region from the implementation of cotton target price policies in both the short and long term using PMP method.The findings show: In order to achieve the maximum benefits of planting,in the short term,with cotton planting scale reduced,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region should increase grain,corn and wheat planting scale;in the long term,cotton planting scale in Xinjiang is still the largest,but corn,grain and wheat planting scale will gradually narrow the gap.However,the policy plays a limited role in ensuring farmers' income.The government should continue to increase the cotton planting technology in Xinjiang area,further improve the degree of organization of farmers,at the same time take other off-farm way to stable the income level of the farmers.The paper is mainly innovative in the following aspects:(1)Based on the plant production dataset and cotton farmers' behavior dataset,it builds models to simulate the effects of cotton target price policy.Especially the combination of information management and economics research methods,which is more scientific in research method and has great values on practice;(2)In spatial dimension,on the analysis of effects of policy on farmers' production behavior,based on the cotton farmers' data,the paper compares and analyzes the policy evaluation results of farmers in different plantation areas;while in the time dimension,the paper simulates and analyzes the effects of cotton target price policies in different scenarios,which enriches the width and depth of the research on the effect of target price policy.