Research On The Effect Of Chinese Soybean Price Intervention Policy On The Futures Price Relationship

Under the background of global economic integration, the domestic market price will be affected by the impact of prices on the international market. Therefore, Chinese major agricultural products carry price intervention policy. On the one hand, the government’s policy factors can play a role in price protection, but on the other hand, it may disturb the market price of agricultural products so the relationship between domestic price and international price is low. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the effect of Chinese price intervention policy on the agricultural products’futures price relationship.According to the price policy specifically on soybean of China and the time of implementation of the policy, the thesis divides the samples period of the soybean futures prices of China and United Stated into temporary storage period, non-temporary storage period and target price period. Then the thesis carries out co-integration test and error correction model independently in these three periods to explore the effect of soybean price policy on the price relationship between soybean prices of China and United States.By analysis, the main research conclusions are as follows:(1) There is a co-integration relationship between domestic and American soybean futures prices, so is the relationship during temporary storage period, non-temporary storage period and target price period. (2) The co-integration relationship has been reduced with the carrying out of temporary storage policy. Government intervention in the soybean market makes soybean futures market functions cannot be effectively realized. (3) The co-integration relationship has been reduced with the carrying out of target price policy. The price discovery function of domestic market is not effectively realized. (4)The price relation between domestic soybeans and American soybeans used for extracting oil is reduced because of protective effect of target price policy on soybean prices and the fact that domestic soybeans are accelerated out of the oil extraction field, more for direct consumption or for food processing and deep processing field. Thus based on the test conclusions, this thesis puts forward several recommendations. (1) Formal agricultural spot and futures information publishing platform shall be established to improve the futures market infrastructure. (2) We shall speed up institutional innovation and make Soybean 2 active to deal with the dilemma that domestic soybeans are accelerated out of oil extraction areas. Meanwhile, stock companies shall be encouraged to use Soybean 2 to realize hedging preservation. (3) We shall appropriately adjust Chinese soybean industry development, and domestic soybeans should be timely to enter the domestic soybean food processing areas.