A Study Of Regional Trade Arrangements In The Middle East

In the modern theory of economics,Jacob Viner's "customs union" theory argues that regional trade arrangements(RTAs)can not only bring about the static effects of "trade creation" and "trade diversion",but also bring several dynamic effects.RTAs plays a vital role in enhancing the regional trade by generating economies of scale,stimulating investment,and intensifying competition,improving the market structure,etc.The Middle East is the first region of world developing countries and regions which was promoting regional economic cooperation and integration.After the World War ?,the Middle East has formed regional RTAs network covering countries inside and outside the area,involving multilateral and bilateral,regional and sub-regions.However,the development of RTAs in the Middle East did not bring economic "take-off".The economic benefits were far lower than expected because of the poor performance of regional economic integrations.There are many problems between strong will of integration and lacking of seriously implement of RTAs.This dissertation studies the historical development,the present situation,the economic performance and causes,the influencing factors and the development trend of the RTAs in the Middle East from the perspectives of history,politics,economics and jurisprudence,in order to provide a more comprehensive and profound analysis of the development of RTAs in the Middle East.This dissertation consists of introduction,conclusion and six chapters.Chapter One reviews the history of economic intercourse in the Middle East,and summaries the characteristics of different historical stages.The boundary and characteristics of two developing peaks of Middle East countries is analyzed,which achieved with the wave of regional economic integration after the World War ?.The development process of RTAs in Middle East is introduced with a macroscopic view.Chapter Two concretely analyzes and categorize the RTAs of the Middle East countries.This chapter lists the main RTAs,and analyzes the following factors include the background,the structure and content of the agreement text,the actual effect and the influence,etc.The main types of RTAs in the Middle East including:"shallow integration","economic cooperation based on fragile political relation","dual goals driven by the outside factors",and "Turkish axis".Chapter Three analyzes the performance of regional trade arrangements in the Middle East from the perspective of economics.This chapter evaluates the effects of RTAs in the Middle East from different perspectives and concludes several critical problems and their causes.Finally,the potential and opportunities of regional economic cooperation in the economic development of the Middle East are analyzed.Chapter Forth discusses the factors influencing the development of regional trade arrangements in the Middle East from the perspective of political science.Political will is the core factor influencing the development of RTAs,which is composed by leaders' intent,supports of domestic economic groups,and the willingness of great powers.In addition,economic nationalism is also a special factor affecting the development of RTAs in the Middle East.War and conflict performs direct impact on the economic cooperation in the Middle East.Chapter Five focuses on the Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC),which has the highest level of economic integration in the Middle East.This chapter discusses the economic integration process and effect of GCC,analyzes the integration of the main foreign trade policy of the GCC.Finally,the development of the GCC under the background of the global regional trade arrangement is explored.Chapter Six,as the last chapter,summarizes development trends of RTAs in the Middle East under the background of globalization.This chapter analyzes the possibility of the regional trade arrangement between China and the Middle East countries,and explores the future development trends of the outstanding problems in the Middle East RTAs.This paper mainly draws the following conclusions:The development of RTAs in the Middle East has played an positive role in the regional economy.It has effectively promoted the growth of trade inside the region,eliminated or substantially reduced the tariff barriers of various countries,and partly stimulated regional trade liberalization.However,the lack of economic incentives and political constraints are basic characteristics in the development of the Middle East RTAs.On the one hand,because of the particularity of regional economic development,the RTAs of Middle East are faced with economic dilemma,but also contains some potential for cooperation.On the other,political will greatly influences the development of RTAs in the Middle East.Economic nationalism and war conflict is also a unique factor affecting the development of regional trade arrangements in the Middle East,comparing with the other areas in the world.In the long term,the trend of regional trade arrangements is interrelated with the reconstruction of global trade rules.For the Middle East countries,it is necessary to comply with the trend of the rise of regional trade arrangements,and actively participate in global trade governance.Global regional trade arrangements become more and more complex.This trend will be a new challenge for the coordination of political and economic policies in the countries of the Middle East.The future trend of regional trade arrangements will be guided by deep economic integration and aiming at establishing of a comprehensive cooperation mechanism.Supranational institutions should be built to implement and supervise development of RTAs.The economic integration of regional trade arrangements should adopt a "progressive" development model and realizing gradually.