Research On Mechanism Of Renewable Portfolio Standard Acting On Power Supply Structure Of China

Faced with the demand of growing electricity, green economy and the requirement of energy-saving and emission-reduction, China has developed renewable energy recently. However, power generation, accessing to grid and its consumption in the market are the three obstacles in the renewable electricity industry. During the Twelfth Five-year Plan, China will promulgate the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) to put forward the renewable electricity industry. RPS will not only help to eliminate the three obstacles but also encourage the technological advancemeng, and improve the formation of a competitive market as well.Under this background, this thesis reviews the literatures and research results at home and abroad and focuses on the mechanism and effect of Renewable Portfolio Standard acting on power supply structure of china. Firstly, the necessity, feasibility and mechanism design of RPS are introduced from the perspective of policy change theory and institutional change theory. Secondly, two equilibrium models of Tradable Green Certificates (TGC) and the electricity market are established to analyze the mechanism of RPS acting on power supply structure as well as the interlinkage of the two markets. Based on this, the interactive system dynamics model of TGC market and the electricity market is builed to simulate the implementation effect of RPS policy in2012-2020.The conclusions are as follows. In the TGC market, under the law of supply and demand and the limitation of the price policy, TGC price will rise to the price cap at the beginning and maintain for several years, and it will fell sharply and oscillate in the last three years. The renewable electricity has experienced the process of accelerated growth, highly uniform speed growth and decelerated growth. In the electricity market, electricity price will drop to price floor at the beginning and maintain for several years, and it will rise sharply and oscillate in the last three years. The traditional electricity has experienced the process of accelerated growth, decelerated growth, lowly uniform speed growth and accelerated growth. In terms of the power supply structure, RPS encourages the investment in renewable energy by pulling on green electricity needs and promotes the development of renewable energy industry, thus contributing to the adjustment of the power supply structure.