Coupling Induction Analysis Model Of Tradable Green Certificates And Carbon Emission Trading Acting On Electricity Market In China

Facing the issues of global greenhouse gases and climate change, as advocates of carbon emission reduction under the Kyoto protocol model, the European Union introduced the mandatory global carbon emissions trading mechanism for the first time. To implement the target of greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the Copenhagen conference, which is that carbon emissions per GDP in 2020 will fall by 40% to 45% than that in 2005, China has carried out the seven carbon emissions trading including electric power industry. In view of the electric power industry, facing the requirements of energy conservation, emissions reduction and green economy and sustainable development, improving the structure of power supply is around the corner. And developing the renewable energy is one of the most effective ways. In the "twelfth five-year" period, China has implemented Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), and it will derive the corresponding Tradable Green Certificates (TGC) market. When TGC trading and carbon trading exist in the electricity market at the same time, how to impact on the power supply structure and how to achieve the goal of energy conservation and emissions reduction is very important and worth studying.Based on the background and analyzing the domestic and foreign research present situation and achievement, this paper studies the " Coupling Induction Analysis Model of Tradable Green Certificates and Carbon Emission Trading Acting on Electricity Market in China ", through Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE) and System Dynamics (SD), analyzes the interaction of key factors in the markets, then construct the coupling induction model of TGC market, Carbon Trading market and electricity market, finally simulates the development trend of power structure and carbon dioxide emissions reduction. Firstly, on the basis of the research status and achievements at home and abroad, this thesis analyzes the market mechanism design of TGC and carbon emissions trading, including the trading main body, market price and operation process etc.; Secondly, build the equilibrium model of TGC market and electricity market, analyzes the internal connection of the two markets, and construct the SD model of TGC market and electricity market, then simulates the impact of the TGC market on the power structure under different Renewable Portfolio Standard. Thirdly, using the principles of economics explains how to make carbon trading target and initial price, then selects the economic indicators of the electric power industry, builds the Computable General Equilibrium model, and analyzes the sensitivity of the electricity price and electric power production on carbon quota and carbon price. Fourthly, constructs the coupling induction equilibrium model of TGC market, Carbon Trading market and electricity market, calculates the equilibrium relationship of TGC price and electricity price, carbon price and electricity price, carbon price and TGC price, further builds the interaction SD model of the TGC market, carbon trading market and electricity market. Fifthly, programs the established the system dynamics model, simulates the trend of TGC price, carbon price, electricity price, renewable energy installed capacity and electricity, traditional energy installed capacity and electricity under the dual effects of TGC market and carbon trading market in the next decade, analyzes whether the government could meet the targets of power structure adjustment and carbon emission reduction under the coupling effect of TGC and carbon trading.The results of the thesis are as follows: â‘ Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) could effectively realize the adjustment of power structure through the TGC market mechanism. The higher the portfolio standard is set, the better the adjustment effect could be, but the more difficult two markets achieve the stability. Therefore, the implementation of RPS and TGC should be carried out step by step. â‘¡The higher carbon emissions limitation and carbon price is set, the better carbon dioxide emission reduction effect of electric power enterprises could be. For the carbon price, if set it too low, it could not promote the power suppliers to reduce emissions effectively. But if set it too high, although the reduction effect is obvious, but it destroys the market rules and would influence the carbon resources optimal allocation. So the government should take the actual situation into consideration comprehensively to set the carbon price, and adjust the carbon quota allocation and price termly. â‘¢ After the implementation of the green certificate trading system and carbon emissions trading system, the power structure would be optimized, the proportion of renewable energy power generation is greatly improved significantly. Therefore the target of renewable energy electricity proportion reaching 15% in 2020 is expected. In addition, the carbon dioxide emissions in the electric power industry will be controlled, which can effectively promote the realization of national carbon reduction target. Finally, this thesis proposes the relevant policy recommendations, providing the reference of theory and practice for implementing the TGC and carbon emissions trading system.