Research On The Income Mobility Of The Poor Strata:Long-term Dynamic Changes And Affecting Factors

With the intensification of social inequality,issues like relative poverty,intergenerational poverty are becoming increasingly prominent.Therefore,researches about how to promote our society to have greater income mobility and how to help the poor achieve upward mobility in earnings are becoming more and more important.By far,there have been a lot of researches about income inequality of our country.However,research which focuses on the combination of Intra-generational income mobility and Inter-generational income mobility from a perspective of long-term or even lifelong is almost none.In this paper,we first screen out the poor groups based on the variable "income".Then we measure the long-term dynamic changes of the poor's income status and the transmission of intergenerational poverty.Besides,we analyze the factors affecting the poor to achieve upward mobility in earnings,and also how father-generation's migration among different labor markets affects the development of the children.We hope that our research would provide some basis and practical suggestions for relative policy making which is aimed at promoting our society to have greater income mobility and also helping the poor achieve upward mobility in earnings.Our paper mainly consists of the following parts:First,we derive human capital theory model in the frame of income mobility,based on the literature review.And also,we try to analyze how human capital investments such as education impact the intra-generational and inter-generational income mobility.Based on the theoretical analysis above,we present some basic assumptions of our research.Second,we try to analyze dynamic changes in household earnings from a micro perspective,based on the microdata of China Health and Nutrition Survey(CHNS).Our empirical results mainly show:1,during 1989-2011,while our country's incidence of absolute poverty and absolute poverty intensity dropped significantly,the relative incidence of poverty,however,showed "inverted U" changes,along with the increasing in the intensity of relative poverty.2,although the poor in our country are mainly of temporary poverty,chronic poverty remains high proportion in total poverty,which means alleviating chronic poverty is still a difficult task.3,entering the 21st century,income mobility of our society has been reducing,and income stratification becomes increasingly apparent.Interestingly,the lowest places in income mobility are the urban areas(compared with rural areas)and the east area(compared with the west and the middle),which are both thought intuitively more developed.4,we also find that,during the past 10 years,the porobability of the poor to achieve upward mobility in earnings has been decreasing,and this is particularly evident in the economically developed regions.Third,we try to analyze the factors which affect the poor to achieve upward mobility in earnings from a micro perspective by using ?-probit regression.Results show that the upward income mobility of the poor is affected by many factors.And both education level and labor mobility have positive effects on the income mobility.We use the data of CFPS 2010 to look at the impact of parental absence on children's long-term educational development,which is obviously different from the previous literature only focusing on the educational performance of the left-behind children at a certain time of the survey.Results show that parental absence not only produces a long-term negative effect on the educational development of the left-behind children,but also has a long-term negative effect on the career development of the left-behind children.At last,based on our theoretical and empirical analysis above,we would like to make some policy recommendations which we hope might do good to the interests of the poor and help them have more chances to achieve upward mobility in earnings and social status.