Analysis Of Spatiotemporal Variations Of Household Energy Consumption In China

Energy is the important material basis of human survival and development.Household energy consumption,as the energy end-use,is not only an important aspect of national energy conservation and emissions reduction,as well as related to the overal strategy for the sustainable energy development.In the process of China's rapid urbanization,the energy consumption patterns of urban and rural households have changed greatly.As growing continuously of residents' income and overall building well-off society,household energy consumption will become the important aspect of energy consumption growth in China.Moreover,a huge geographical difference and imbalance of social-economic development make spatial variances of household energy consumption to have more performance in China.Taking household energy consumption as the research object,this paper fully recognized and understood its evolution and spatial differences,and quantitatively analyzed the spatial effects of the influencing factors,and finally predicted the future development trends of household energy consumption in China.We hope the study can provide some references for policy making and energy planning,and also could be a usefull way of helping decision-makers in different regions to construct flexible strategies for energy structurae optimization and energy conservation and emissions reduction.In this paper,several theories such as sustainable development theory,ecological modernization theory and energy ladder hypothesis are introduced.Combining with the theoretical analysis and empirical research,time series data and panel data model,macro statistics and micro research,the comprehensive evaluation method,econometric model and energy forecasting model are applied.Along the way of “history-current-future”,this paper expounded the changes in the process and regional difference of household energy consumption in China from the dynamic perspective.Firstly,based on the history and current situation of Chinese household energy consumption,the comprehensive evaluation index system was built,so as to point out the development direction of energy modernization in the region.Secondly,the trend and characteristics of the spatial differences of household energy consumption were discussesed,and measure quantitatively the effect intension of the factors,and deepen the understanding to the spatial association between geographical-social-economic factors and household energy consumption.Finally,based on the history and status of household energy consumption,the prediction model was applied to forecast household energy consumption in China in following 25 years.Based on above subjects,the conclusions are as follows:1.In terms of development history of household energy consumption.In the past 30 years,the total energy consumption in household sector of China increased in wave.The energy structure become to be more clean,efficient and convenient.(1)The approach access to energy sources become more convenient.With the rural population migration to urban areas in the process of urbanization,the energy consumption patterns shift from rural areas to urban areas.Meanwhile,households transformed their energy sources from decentralized to centralized,which makes people's life more convenient and efficient.(2)The energy end-uses become more diversify.Although the energy used for heating and cooking account for the most part of total household energy consumption,because of efforts to improve the quality of life,which makes it extended to more aspects including clean sanitation,transportation,education,communication,and entertainment,from basic survival needs such as lighting,cooking and heating.As a result,people's life is becoming more and more diversified.(3)The energy use efficiency is increasing.Although some inefficient coal stove,tabun ovens are still used extensively in rural households,with the advanced energy utilization technology and new energy equipments,energy use efficiency are greatly improved.As income rise,people's consumption consciousness is also changing,the selection of energy demand is tending to clean and efficient energy.(4)With the improvement of income level,people have a higher request about the quality of the inhabitant environment.In the process of energy consuming in urban households,the proportion of coal is gradually declining,while the proportion of electricity,natural gas is rising.For rural households,the proportion of direct combustion of biomass and coal is falling,and demand for modern clean fuels(such as solar energy and electricity)increased significantly.(5)The demand for modern commercial energy has gradually increased.Although the biomass and coal occupies the absolute status in rural household energy consumption,but as the consumption level of electric power,gas and fuel increased year by year,the commercial energy sources gradually replace non-commercial energy ones.2.In terms of comprehensive development level of household energy consumption.Using the method of synthesized index analysis,establishing evaluating model of China household energy modernization,evaluating the development of energy modernization for 30 provinces in the years of 2005,2010 and 2014.There are four sub-indicators,including energy availability,energy clean,energy convenience and support system.(1)Modernization level of household energy use is increasing.Along with the growth of economy and the improvement of energy infrastructure,the modernization level of household energy use is on the rise.The convenience and availability of energy use have greatly enhanced.The availability of modern clean fuels have markedly improved,also the the popularity of advanced equipments and appliances gradually improved.Meanwhile,due to insufficient energy supporting conditions and unreasonable energy structure,which makes the modernization level of energy use having much room to improve.(2)The regional differences of modernization level are obvious.The energy supporting system is better in Tianjin,shaanxi,ningxia,Xinjiang.The problem of availability in Mongol,Shaanxi and Guizhou is serious.In the middle reaches of the Yellow River,it has better energy support system,but its energy availability is relatively poor.In the Northern coastal areas,it has better energy availability,while is not enough clean.In the Northeast,East coast,Southern coastal,Southwest coastal and the middle reach of Yangtze river,they all showed the better energy availability and convenience,and cleanness and support conditions need to be strengthen.It the worst convenience in the northwest region.3.In terms of the factors influencing the spatial difference in household energy consumption in China.Based on the STIRPAT model and panel dataset for 30 provinces in China over the period 1997-2013,this paper investigated influences of the income per capita,urbanization level and annual average temperature on HEC,and revealed the spatial effects of these influencing factors.(1)Differences between the eastern and the western regions of China.The main reason is that they are at different stages of economic development,the base and growth rate of household energy use are different.Combined with the altitude increasing gradually from east to west,it leads to the temperature falling,which increases the energy needed for home heating.The income level is the main influencing factor,followed by the annual average temperature.In addition,the influence of urbanization level varies according to income level.(2)Differences between the northern and the southern regions of China.In the northern region of China with high latitude,the cold weather lasts longer than the southern region.The energy consumption for heating is large and relatively inelastic for long time.The impact of temperature change on household energy consumption shows in the intercept terms of the fixed effect models.Intercepts vary across provinces in models,and this variance shows clear spatial difference between the northern region and the southern region.(3)The spatial heterogeneity between rural and urban households has more significant impact on the structure,pattern and efficiency of household energy consumption than on the quantity of it.First,the relatively perfect energy infrastructure,including central heating system,natural gas network system,power grids and filling stations,is build up in urban China.City dwellers easily access the high-quality energy,which is because dense population makes the relative cost of the construction down.Besides the electric grid,there are no other energy public infrastructures in the rural area.Second,if the various types of energy used by households are converted into effective heat,the "energy ladder" between rural and urban areas became clear.By consuming the same amount of energy,an urban household uses the high-quality fuel,and obtains more effective heating than a rural household obtains.4.In terms of future trend of household energy consumption in China.Based on LEAP model,several scenarios were developed to evaluate the development trend of household energy consumption until 2040.(1)The change trend of household energy consumption.Based on the existing research and estimated parameters,the growth trend of household energy consumption in China is unable to change in the short term.The total energy consumption will be raised to 7~9.46 million tce by 2040.Urban areas will be the main body of household energy consumption in China.On the one hand,it increased the pressure of energy supply in urban areas,also put forward the higher requirements for carrying capacity of energy public service infrastructure.(2)The change trend of household energy structure.In the future,the electricity and natural gas will be the major energy sources in household sector.With the advancement of urbanization and the continuous improvement of residents' income level,household energy demand used for heating,lighting and appliances will be increased sharply,due to the expansion of residential area and the ownership of the appliances.In addition,the popularity of private cars will increase the demand for gasoline and diesel.(3)The change trend of carbon emissions.The increasing of fossil energy consumption will inevitably lead to the growth of carbon emissions.The carbon emissions will reach 1.68 to 2.06 billion tons by 2040.For moderated improvement scenario and accelerated improvement scenario,it will cut of 9.4% and 18%,respectively,compared with the baseline scenario.It seems meaningless to emissions reduction through improving energy efficiencyof appliances.At present,coal is the main fuel in most of the power plants and heating boilers in China.By improving energy efficiency and improving building heat preservation measures,not only can effectively reduce the emissions of pollutants,also help achieve targets of emission reduction earlier.Based on the above research,this paper puts forward some policy recommendations for national energy management and construction.Through improving the energy supply capability,optimizing energy structure,enhancing the energy service level,and improving the energy market and price mechanism,etc.,it is not only related to the transformation and upgrade of energy system,but also guide the energy consumption toward low carbon,safe,efficient and sustainable direction.