Analysis And Forecast Of The Driving Factors Of Carbon Emission From Energy Consumption In Shandong Province

The year 2016 is the first year of “China’s the 13 th Five-year”, Shandong Province according to the formulation of China’s energy consumption and carbon emissions policy "China’s the 13 th Five-year" planning content mainly is: adhere to the basic state policy of conserving resources and protecting the environment, and firmly establish the concept of green, low-carbon development, and vigorously promote resource-saving and environment friendly society construction, change the resources development and utilization, development of circular economy, green economy, low-carbon technology, production development, affluent life and sound eco road of civilized development can be summarized as the following four aspects: promoting the construction of Ecological Province, strengthen environmental protection, strengthen resource conservation, vigorously develop the circular economy. In order to complete the "45" period in Shandong Province to develop the target through of energy consumption in Shandong Province carbon emission driving factors can reasonably control the total amount of resources and reduce carbon emissions, in Shandong Province to achieve the "ecological province", the development of circular economy to provide protection, also in this paper forecast in Shandong Province, the future energy consumption carbon emission amount, can provide a reference for Shandong Province energy consumption structure and industrial structure adjustment.Through the study on carbon emissions of energy consumption prediction theory and methods of analysis of relevant literature, select the STIRPAT model as the research model, the model of decision variables is selected according to previous related research results and combined with the specific circumstances of Shandong province are the decision variables of the rich, the statistical yearbook statistical yearbook of Shandong and our country for the year 2005-2014 time series data as the main data sources of this article, according to the model of the decision variables of the time series data to facilitate data regression simulation parameters of each decision variable, and the driving factors of the partial correlation analysis, principal component analysis method, explain the total error analysis on the reliability of the model was analyzed, and the calculation model of development in Shandong Province, each of the driving factors of trend Potential, and that the driving factors to keep development "inertia", carries on the forecast using the grey prediction model to theShandong Province future 2020 and 2025, energy consumption and carbon emissions and energy consumption intensity and is capable of driving factors research and carbon emissions, energy consumption intensity prediction by the Shandong Province to develop reasonable policy on energy consumption, energy consumption structure adjustment, the adjustment of industrial structure to provide quantitative reference.In this paper, through the STIRPAT model regression analysis model of driving factors of energy consumption and carbon emissions elasticity coefficient. The conclusion is elastic coefficient is the largest of three driving factors is the urbanization level of ur, ECF of energy consumption structure in Shandong Province, Shandong Province, with a total population of PEO, elasticity coefficient respectively is: 0.6695, 0.3569, 0.3103, also total GDP of square etc.will coefficient is-0.07477 is a negative number, according to the conclusion of the Environmental Kuznets curve, economic growth in Shandong Province and carbon emissions exists between the inverted "U" relationship. Through the construction of grey forecasting model is given for Shandong Province in 2020 and 2025 carbon emissions are 41623.83 Wt 45178.93 Wt, level of urbanization ratio are 0.492765, 0.542137, the proportion of the industrial structure are 0.513728 0.561497.In 2014,GDP of Shandong Province is 59426.60 billion yuan, second only to Guangdong Province and Jiangsu Province ranked third in the country, at the same time, Shandong Province, is also one of China’s energy production and energy consumption of a large province, in Shandong Province energy consumption and carbon emission driving factor analysis and future carbon emissions, energy consumption intensity prediction of. So did not, however, the study also has many shortcomings, for example: 2015 years October 30 days, the full liberalization of the "two child policy, Shandong Province total population cardinal number is big, in the next 10 years in Shandong Province energy consumption and carbon emissions of the driving factors of the population P will change. In this paper, due to the lack of quantitative measurements are taken into account; for example, Shandong Province in the" 45 "period will continue to promote wind power project, which is the study of Shandong Province energy consumption and carbon emission driving factors and future emission prediction of total essential factors, which is in the future research of innovation and improvement.