Research On Problems Of Investing And Financing Of Urban Rail Transit Project

Rail transit construction is conducive to the further development of public transport facilities and the comprehensive development of the overall society.Developing urban rail transit remains infrastructure investment priorities during the "Twelfth Five-year" in China.As an important type of the national infrastructure,urban rail transit projects are constructed with huge investment,long cycle,the rather narrow financing channel(only the government sector investment and bank loans as the main source of funds)and the relatively low engineering efficiency.Facing the rapid development of rail transit construction scale and the large funding gap,many problems need to be solved e.g.how to scientifically and reasonably select the financing decision,how to arrange the reasonable financing structure,how to effectively to dynamic supervision of project investment and financing,etc..This thesis therefore focuses on urban rail transit investment and financing decision-making,supervision and structure,by applying DEMATEL method to identify the key factors influencing the financing decision and establish multi-group multi-attribute decision-making model;using system dynamics theory building evolution game model for urban rail transit construction project investment and financing supervision;and constructing the evaluation index system of financing structure and achieve optimization.This thesis is innovative in the following perspectives:1.Based on DEMATEL urban rail transit construction project investment and financing decision influence factors are analyzed,the key factors identified as government financial investment,the government's policy support,investment management,schedule management,industry characteristics.Its effect is assigned a value more than 4.5000,of which the effect of governmental financial support is up to 5.6450 and that of the government policies 5.0566.These are the only the two factors with the effect more than 5.0000.According to the identified key factors influencing the investment and financing decision,a triangular fuzzy multi-group multi-attribute model for urban rail transit project financing is built and the right financing mode selected.The urban rail transit construction project investment decision-making procedures are also designed with the aim to optimize the final project investment and financing scheme.2.In terms of government investment and financing supervision,the game theory was used,to explore the relationships between the government,the construction unit and contractor and to construct the dynamic evolution game model between different subjects.The game equilibrium is(0,0),(0,1),(1,1),(1,0),(D?,D?),and the system dynamics simulation analysis was carried out in terms of the equilibrium stability of.3.The system dynamics simulation was conducted for testing the local equilibrium stability.Based on system dynamics evolutionary game analysis of urban rail transit construction project investment and financing supervision.it shows that: in the bidding stage,the selected strategy of government regulation,the construction unit and contractor i.e.combination of conspiracy is stable.In the construction stage,strategy combination is not stable,but the construction unit and contractor choose the strategy of not conspiracy.In addition,the strategy choices of the government,the construction units and contractors are related to the original intention.4.The urban rail transit construction project investment and financing structure optimization evaluation system was built and the existing project financing structure rationality evaluated and the best financing structure determined.Urban rail transit project financing structure was optimized based on the established evaluation system consisted of the financing structure optimization criterion,multi-objective equilibrium from the governance structure,financing cost and financing risk,solvency and profitability of such aspects as establishing the evaluation index system of urban rail transit project financing structure optimization,application of entropy method to establish evaluation model,evaluate urban rail transit project financing structure,and application of example a clear evaluation model of practical value.In the indicator system,the comprehensive weight value of contract rate increases,single contract variation index and index individual contract variation are 0.0086,0.0078,0.0080 and relatively large.The contract variation rate increases,single contract variation index and any individual contract variation influence of urban rail transit construction project investment and financing structure.5.The construction of Guangzhou metro line 11 project was selected for case study Analysis of investment and financing decision-making process in the project design,financing structure optimization is conducted and suggestions on investment and financing supervision raised,such as strengthening the regulation of the early stage of the project decision-making,auditing strictly the preliminary design and budget.Regulatory principles are suggested as " sampling in advance,accountability afterwards".Besides,the existing cost consultation organization intervention and professional judgment should also be fully used.The "follow-up audit" model was also introduced.The study conducted in this thesis,regarding the urban rail transit project investment and financing management,is valuable in our country.Meanwhile,I believe more in-depth results obtained in the future will improve the level of urban rail transit financing and investment management in our country,promoting the healthy development of rail transit industry.