A Study On The Dynamical Mechanism And Scenario Decision-making Of Regional Low-carbon Development

Under the present circumstance of global warming,low-carbon development has been raised.How to ensure the continued economic growth while achieving goals for reducing carbon emissions has become a focal points of the whole society.Guiding by the systematic thought and methods,synthetically considering the core elements of economy activity,population development,energy consumption and carbon emissions and analyzing the dynamical mechanism of low-carbon development to find feasible solutions,which is a new research direction of low carbon development.This paper takes Gansu Province as the example,(1)estimates the energy-related carbon emissions and investigates the evolution trends and characteristics of carbon emissions by using the data of terminal energy consumption;(2)analyzes the influencing factors of carbon emissions from industrial and household sectors with logarithmic mean Divisia index method,(3)applies the systematic thought and methods to build a model of low-carbon development system,simulating the possible solution of achieving low carbon development in different policy background;(4)takes the improved IDMI method to scientifically and rationally chose the optimal low carbon development schemes.The main conclusions of this paper are:(1)Through the calculation of carbon emissions and bearing capacity of carbon.Results show that the carbon emissions of Gansu province exceed bearing capacity of carbon since 2012,and the trend of the carbon deficit expands gradually.The carbon deficit reached 31.7 million tons in 2014,thus the carbon emission reduction has become an unavoidable task for environmental governance.(2)With the decomposition study of energy-related carbon emissions from the industrial and household sectors in Gansu province,it finds that the economic activity effect is the dominant stimulatory factor of the increase of carbon emissions.The accumulated changes in carbon emissions from the economic activity effect increased by 143.61 Mt.Followed by the industrial structure effect,household energy intensity effect and population scale effect.The main factor of mitigating carbon emissions in Gansu province is the industrial energy intensity effect.The accumulated changes in carbon emissions from the industrial energy intensity effect decreased by 56.5 Mt.Followed by the household energy mix effect,population structure effect and industrial energy mix effect.(3)Using the system dynamics thought and method,it builds a model of low carbon development in Gansu province,the simulations by different policy scenarios show that Gansu province will not be able to achieve the goal of reducing its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 45% in 2020 relative to 2005 levels under the current policies and conditions.In order to mitigate carbon emissions,Gansu province must strengthen the implementation of carbon emission reduction policies.In all 5 scenarios of low carbon development,the industrial energy intensity is the main inhibitory factor of the carbon emissions,but it is not indispensable.While the optimization of the industrial structure is the inevitable choice to reducing carbon emissions.(4)In accordance with 5 schemes of low carbon development,it takes the improved IDMI method to compare each scheme.Results show that if there is no special preference for policy makers,IRHS scheme is the the best option whose IDMI value is 5.09.It will be able to minimize the carbon emissions intensity by continuing to optimize the industrial structure,adjust energy mix and reduce household energy intensity.When policy makers concentrate more on the energy intensity of secondary industry,proportion of renewable energy or carbon emission intensity,the value of IDMI in CS scheme is minimum.It needs to improve the industrial energy efficiency as well as the other three carbon emission reduction policies to achieve the goal of carbon emissions reduction.