A Study On The Effect Of Cotton Subsidiary Policies

China is the largest country for cotton producing and consuming in the world.As a strategic material,which concerns about the core-benefits crossing the cotton industry.In order to ensuring the cotton supply and promoting farmer's revenue,China government draw up a series of cotton subsidiary policies from the year of 2002,such as the deduction of agricultural tax,subsidies for growing superior cotton cultivators and purchasing of agricultural machinery,and target price.Now,China has erected a subsidiary policy regimes for cotton which include market price support and producer payment and general service support,that can give consideration to both farmer's revenue and industrial safety.Does the cotton subsidiary achieve its anticipated goals? How much it can influence farmer's behaviors of cultivation? How high is the effect for stimulating cotton production and farmer's revenue? If anything insufficient,why,how to improve it? So,this dissertation will be significant in theoretical and practical when chose the cotton subsidiary policies as researching target.In ordering to give a scientific evaluation on current policy regime,the dissertation analysis evolve of cotton subsidiary policies in China,assess the macro-effect and probe into the relationship between subsidiary policies and micro-behaviors of farmers,then discuss the route through which effect farmer's behaviors of cotton cultivation.Finally,basing on successful experiences which provide by related countries,we put up with several suggestions for enhancing the policy effects.The main content of this dissertation is the following:First,assessing the current theories and literature.Through the assessing the current theories and literature,we conclude the Research paradigm and absorb some methods and techniques on analyzing,and point out defects in theoretical assumptions and data-collecting and quantitative analysis.All of above,that give a solid basement for research frame.Second,the evolve and current situation of cotton subsidiary policies.We divide the whole period into three sub-stages,unscramble the background and goal and specific content,and then put up with some problems preliminary.Third,evaluation of the support level using OECD's methods and macro-effect.We estimate the support level of cotton subsidiary policies with the method of OECD,basing on that we give a quantitative analysis of policy macro-effect.Fourth,constrained factors and micro-verification of cotton subsidiary policies.This chapter undertake the function of theorem and demonstration.We find the path through which subsidiary policies act on farmer's behaviors and get the Mediators,then verify the effect using the farmer's micro-data.End,conclusions and suggestions.The conclusion as following:1.Before cotton market was total deregulated,the total support estimation of cotton is negative in most years,which reflect mainly in GSSE,and the total transfer is 22.4 billion.After the year of 2002,TSE grow rapidly and the distortion on production and price is more and more clear.From the angel of constitution,MPS occupy large proportion.2.Theoretical,MPS,decoupled and coupled policies and GSS are very important in stimulating production and protecting farmer's revenue.General speaking,if we take production as ours primary goal,the MPS is the most suitable policy;if we take revenue first,decoupled subsidy is best.3.From the view of empirical analysis results,different types of subsidiary policies have different magnitude and bearing on stimulating production and farmer's revenue.The relationship between Coupled subsidy and production and revenue is statistically insignificant.Relatively speaking,MPS has obvious and direct effect on promoting cotton production and stimulating farmer's activities.Decoupled subsidy can improve farmer's revenue obviously,but have little to do with production.GSS have moderate affection onboth production and revenue.4.Cotton subsidiary policy act on production and revenue through the following mediators: producing technology,the rate of marginal revenue,market price and risk appetite.The affection of subsidiary policies depend on those mediators.5.The elasticity of production on earth is larger than other factors.Decoupled subsidy can enlarge farmers' inputs,but the supply of earth is fixed relatively,so decoupled subsidy's affection on production is slight.Cotton cultivation has returns to scale,so decoupled subsidy can raise farmer's revenue.When the Scale expansion larger than one,GSS will lead the improvement of technology,and increase production and revenue simultaneously.Raising cotton price can stimulate to enlarge producing scale.The elasticity of cotton supply on factors' price is relatively low,when the subsidiary budget is equal,MPS has a stronger affection than input subsidiary policy.Because of the low subsidiary standard,decouples has nothing to do production and revenue.The marginal revenue of fertilizer and agricultural machinery are larger than 1,but the rest of other factors are smaller than 1,so their effect on farmer's revenue neutralize mutually.If the price of factors increasing,it will cause a decline in the rate of production's marginal revenue,so MPS and controlling of factor's price could be used together and which can help exerting its maximum affection on revenue.