| China's economy made a remarkable and rapid growth since the reform.The growth rates of GDP always keep on a high value in the long run.It was called a growth miracle by international community.Income gap is getting larger and larger between city and rural,different areas and different industries along with strong of the country and improve of living standard.The GINI coefficient was always up on the international warming level.GINI coefficient used to measure the income inequality level,but the high level of GINI coefficient of our country have not trigger social instability and social unrest like North Americans.Why does the income distribution made the different effects to economy structure and income growth which the GINI coefficient and income gap is the same in the two countries?Why does the approval degree is different to the public?The existtance of income gap is not horrible and proper income gap can promote the economy growth,but what is important is that people didn't have the same opportunity to get income.Many marxist economics,new institutional economics and modern economic statisticians attach great importance to value judgments,pay more attention to income distribution problem.People are more willing to accept opportunity equality than result equality.We study income distribution from the perspective of dynamic way that is income mobility.In the framework of Keynesian macroeconomic theory,the lack of effective demand is the main reason leading to a recession.To make China's economic growth back to double-digit economic growth,income inequality of life cycle must be solved properly.Income mobility is able to promote long-term income inequality equilibrium,optimizing the economic growth in homeostasis,providing a driving force for the long-term growth of China's economy.At the same time,income mobility can contribute to all sectors of society in the life cycle of income inequality tends to equality,reflecting the social fairness.We will study the opportunity equality from the perspective of income mobility,build a research framework of "Income growth—Income inequality—Relative poverty—Income mobility—Long-term income equality" to study income mobility more scientifically and systematically.The introduction part described the background and significance,the current research status,research ideas,content and methods.The first chapter reviews the theoretical basis of income mobility and gives the interpretation of the content and measurement of income mobility.The second chapter measures the relative income mobility,absolute income mobility and welfare perspective size,income mobility trend and quality of Chinese urban and rural households resident.The third chapter studies the particular class of income which the income mobility of Under-privileged people.Base on the above analysis,Chapter 4 use the economic model to study influence factors empirically and give the income mobility changes decomposition.Chapter 5 studies the relationship of short-term income gap,long-term income gap and income mobility and check whether income mobility is good to equilibrium of long-term income inequality.At last,we give the conclusion and advise of income mobility of Chinese residents.Taking households as the basic research units,and data from 1989 to 2011 CHNS household survey data to support the research which using Markov transition matrix as a basic research tool,and build income mobility measurement index based on this measure.We constructed a measure system by relative income mobility,absolute income mobility and welfare perspective income mobility to measure the Chinese household income mobility.Compared to a measure of relative income mobility which haven't consider the time interval,we will control interval for each period in four years to arrive at more accurate measurement results.The results shows that the Chinese household relative income mobility is U shape but not reverse U shape.Around the year of 2000 was a turning point in the trends which just reflects the impacts to China household by deepening of reform.Absolute income mobility first rise and then drop during study period,income mobility of welfare perspective shows the welfare of Chinese household is declining.From the comparison of urban and rural areas,the rural household income mobility is higher than that of urban household income mobility,and short-term rural incomes mobility is less fluctuation.In the long run,Chinese residents in the relative income mobility nearly horizontal state,and the urban and rural areas showed a opposite change in the direction.Absolute income mobility including directional and non-directional income mobility,absolute income mobility of Chinese households increased firstly and then decreased and reached its highest point during 2000 and 2004.Non-directional absolute income mobility of urban and rural tends to disperse,and the absolute income mobility in rural areas is higher than urban areas and more stable.Directional income mobility of urban residents and rural households also showed the same situation,but greater volatility.Long-term absolute income mobility in urban areas is higher than rural areas which is different from the short-term.Thus,the long-term changes in urban households income mobility is greater than the short-term situation,but the short-term situation is opposite.King index indicts that income mobility for urban social welfare improvements would rose slowly from 1989 to 1991 and went the peak during 1997 to 2000,and then went down rapidly.King indicators of rural households residents also showed inverted U-shaped but the trend is more gentle.This feature is still valid in the long term.We analyzed the income mobility structure and divided households into five sectors by quintiles to discuss the income mobility of different classes in urban and rural areas.Whether urban or rural family households,low-income and high-income groups are lack of income mobility,the ability to transfer up is weak of low-income classes,and high-income classes are more easy to maintain their status,the middle-income class is rich in income mobility,but unstable.This is not good at income mobility between classes,and easy to form a "poor get poorer,the rich get richer" in Matthew.Income mobility between different classes performances as a "wheeled" effect rather than income class jump.Chinese residents income mobility quality is not high,upward mobility is mainly in top classes and low-income classes have little opportunity to go upward.The current income mobility is not conductive to form a middle class and improve the living standard of low-income classes,but only strengthened the dominant position in the high-income classes.The higher level of education the higher of relative income mobility is for different groups.Middle-aged groups have higher income mobility from the age structure perspective.The government workers and institutions workers have higher income mobility from the perspective of different unites nature.The high-income earners in higher level education groups,50 to 59 years old groups and institutions workers groups are more easily to maintain their rich status.Who works in institute unit,government and state-owned enterprise are more easily to maintain at the top.It is the same for income mobility quality.The poor is an important part among all sectors of society,and coordination of social stability plays an important role.Dynamic changes in poverty are a particular stage of specific populations experienced.We decompose the change of poverty into income growth and income mobility to observe the impact of income mobility by three poor standard.Analysis the income mobility and its quality and build long-term equilibrium of poverty index to analyze the income mobility balanced role for the long-term poverty.Decomposition analysis shows that income mobility has a negative effect for poverty alleviation,but the negative effects is only for the poor as a whole.The reason of poverty worsening as a whole may be more non-poor groups into poverty or fewer poor out of poverty.The income mobility results of poor show that both urban and rural households resident households in 1989 and 2011,the poverty rate declined while returning to poverty rate rise.From the comparison of urban and rural areas,the rural households to escape poverty is better than urban households,while re-return ratio should be lower than that of the poor urban households.So the poor of rural households go upward is better than the urban households.Whether the quality of out of high fragile poverty or low fragile poverty,the rural is better than urban and more stable.Examining whether income mobility can balance long-term poverty by construct a long-term poverty equilibrium index.Whether poor household have more equitable opportunity to get more income and escape poverty during life cycle by income mobility and findings support the conjecture.The study of income mobility effect factors provides a theoretical basis for the promotion of benign development of income mobility.By using Multinomial-Logit model to analysis income mobility effect factors from family characteristics,job characteristics and location information.Decomposing the change of income mobility into composition effects,i.e.,to shifts in the observable explanatory factors behind wage changes,and structure effects,i.e.,to shifts in unobservable or in correlation patterns as reflected in regression coefficients based on RIF regression and FFL decomposition.Composition effect explains about 37%and the structure effect explained most of the change of income mobility by the decomposition before and after economic transition.Household location explained about 78.7%,family characteristics explained 19.6%and job characteristics explained the least.Urban and rural households income mobility decomposition results told us that composition effects and structure effects are different at different time.But job characteristics effects contribute most to composition effects.Although the income gap is large and escalate in short time in China as a whole,urban and rural areas or coastal and inland areas,but income mobility promote a long-term convergence of income gap by calculating P index.Decomposing the change of inequality into income progressivity and income mobility.Whatever the whole China or urban and rural or coastal and inland,income progressivity is positive and it is pro-poor and it's conductive to achieve unify of fairness and efficiency.Short-term increase in the income gap is due to diffusion of income mobility.Increased income mobility and opportunities for residents to earn income,the poor have more opportunities to move upward and rich persons may go downward at the same time.If the poor rise to a higher income bracket than before,while the original rich down to the lower income groups than the poor before,this result expansion the short-term income gap and short-term income inequality strengthened,as reflected in the Gini coefficient rise.But in the long run it makes everybody have opportunity to earn income and the corresponding long-term income inequality improved.The innovation point as follow:1.Construct a comprehensive income mobility measurement system to measure Chinese residents' income mobility.Studies have focused on only a single index or some indicators which they failed to form a consensus standards.We build a comprehensive income mobility evaluation system to measures China income mobility based on existing research in this paper.At the same time,we study the group difference to make up he existing literature is only concerned with the overall income mobility.2.Resolve the poverty problem from a dynamic point of view and build a new index to check the impact of income mobility on long-term poverty.How to achieve the "precise pro-poor" and poverty reduction,we should not only to consider static poverty,but also the dynamic poverty.The static index neglected the inside component of poor group and income mobility analysis can solve the problem.3.We consider the effect factors of income mobility change.The literatures focus only on a fixed time income mobility effecting factors and ignoring the empirical analysis of changes in income mobility.This paper decompose the income mobility change to composition effects and structure effects base on FFL decomposition.We learned the marginal effect of explanatory variables to dependent variables in the context of guarantee the accuracy of the model identification and parameters consistent estimation.Meanwhile,changes in inequality decomposition reveals the relationship of income mobility and income inequality. |
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