Study On The Intertemporal Optimal Extraction Path Of Exhaustible Resources And Policy In China

Exhaustible energy resources is basic energy and important raw material resource of our nation.It plays an important strategic role in national economy.Extracting exhaustible resource scientifically is of great importance to the sustainabile development of national energy resource industry and security of national energy supply.Since the reform and opening policy 38 years ago,intertemporal extraction problem of national exhaustible resource hasn't got solved perfectly,which leads to resource wastes,environment pollution,overcapacity problems and etc.Thus,it's necessary to study the intertemporal optimal extraction path of exhaustible resources and related policies,which are key issues for the structural reform of energy supply.Existing studies mainly focus on resource optimal extraction path with single factor.This paper takes acount into multiple influence factors,studies the intertemporal optimal extraction path of exhaustible resources and related policies.Mainly research tasks and conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Constructing the intertemporal optimal extraction model of exhaustible resource based on domestic market.Filtering and describing the factors of influceing the intertemporal extraction of exhuastible resource,analyzing its changing patterns of uncertainty,utilizing the endogenous economic growth model and optimal control theory model,taking consideration of the influence factors like storage quantity,technology,resource substitution,price,cost,maket structure,interest rates,taxes and etc,this paper constructs intertemporal optimal extraction path model of exhaustible energy resource in domestic market.This model parses out the optimal path from the joint pointviews of energy resources extraction and utilization and economic growth.As details,in long term,under certain conditions,optimal extraction quantity decreases gradually.Technology is the key factor influencing the variation of extraction quantity.The variation of optimal extraction quantity growth rate is closely related to intertemporal influnce factors of exploration and extraction technology,influnce level of exploration and extraction technology to cost,returns to scale of the end product production department.Taking account of the uncertainty variation of influence factors,optimal extraction quantity also decreases gradually,while fluctuation exists in the process of decline.(2)Constructing the intertemporal optimal extraction model of exhaustible resource based on both domestic and international markets.On the basis of section(1),with including influence factors of international market like exchange rate,import and export volume.This paper expands the optimal extractioin model further into intertemporal optimal extraction model in both domestic and international markets.Changing trend of optimal extraction quantity and its growth rate of exhaustible resource derived from this model is identical with the one derived from the model which considering only domestic market.The difference are,after considering international market,when the price of domestic resource is decided by international market,optimal extraction quantity is influenced by factors like import price,interest rate exchange rate and etc.when returns to scale of the end product production department change,growth rate of optimal extraction quantity is much larger then the one derived from the model only considering domestic market.Net import grwoth rate of exhaustible resource is the same with the grwoth rate of domestic exhaustible resource extraction quantity.(3)Constructing the intertemporal optimal extraction model of exhaustible resource with environmental constraints.Emphasizing the importance of environment factor,applying the optimal control theory and method,this paper constructs the intertemporal optimal extraction model of exhaustible resource with environmental constraints,parses out the optimal extraction path of xhaustible resource with environmental constraints.As details,after considering environment constraints,the time of mine abandon is advanced.The optimal extraction quantity also decreases gradually,which has the same trends derived in section(1)and(2).Optimal extraction quantity is influnced by factors like environment damage level from exhuastible resource extraction,environment self-reparing ability,actual effect of environmental governance and etc.Research results prove that,evironment management directly by government produces best effect,in comparision with government making policies and adopting incentive programes to push enterprise on environment protection.It also proves that economy growth and environmental governance complements each other instead of conflicts.(4)Constructing the policy model guaranteeing the realization of intertemporal optimal extraction path of exhaustible resource.In order to guaranteeing the realization of intertemporal optimal extraction path of exhaustible resource,taking the coal industry of our country as example,this paper constructs the evolutionary game model of the coal market exit,mining right transfer,tax regulation and supervision mechanism,to study domestic outdated capacity exit,mining right transfer,tax regulation and supervision mechanism of coal.The corresponding policies of specific programs are indicated that,carrying out exit policy referring to the mines which can either exit or not exit,promoting coal enterprises(listed companies)to implement laid-off employee stock ownership plan,promoting social capital investment,enhancing reward of exit enterprises.In terms of mines needing integration,it's indicated to conduct mining right transfer and tax regulation,decrease resource compensation fee and resource tax,strengthen the policy enforcement,Grasp the meaning of the central government's policies precisely.In terms of mines whether above the capacity or not,it's indicated to adopt regulation policy,strengthen supervision and inspection,use various regulation methods,and take specific motivation measures.The results of this research make up the deficiencies of the intertemporal optimal configuration theory of exhaustible resource,improve and optimize the policy of exhaustible resource extraction.It provides crucial reference values for relevant departments of our country to conduct resource configuration,adjust the structure of energy supply,and perform sustainable development of energy resource.