Study On Optimum Extraction Scale Of China Coal Resources Under Uncertainty

Coal resources is China’s basic energy, a long time, occupy about70percent of China’sprimary energy production and consumption ratio, provides a strong guarantee for China’seconomic development. It is predicted that for a long period of time, coal will continue to bean important strategic energy in China. With the rapid economic growth, rapid increase indemand for coal, resulting in the local coal enterprises regardless of the carrying capacity ofthe environment and resources, and expanding production scale. Coal resources areexhaustible and non-renewable characteristics, continuous excessive exploitation, not onlywill result in the total supply and demand imbalances, tight reserve resources, andcoal-mining areas in ecology and the environment caused a great deal of damage andpollution, thereby affecting the national economy and sustainable development of society.Therefore, a systematic study of size of the rational exploitation of coal resources for coalresources, sustainable development and utilization and environmental protection haveimportant theoretical and practical significance.This paper uses economics, mining science, dynamic optimization theory, optimal scaleof mining resources of China’s coal reserves, price, technical, environmental constraints andpolicy under uncertainty, the main research work are as follows:(1)Research the current situation of coal resources exploitation in China, analysis themain influence factors and evaluate the basic protection ability of coal resources in China.(2)Based on the mineral resource depletion path theory, consider the uncertainty factors,like reserves, price, technology, environmental constraints and policies, establishinter-temporal optimization model of the exploitation of coal resources and solve the model.(3)Do empirical research on mining costs, prices and technological progress of coalresources in China. By simulating and solving the parameters in the optimization equation,using VC visual programming, do numerical simulation and predict the mining scale of coalresources under uncertainty conditions. (4)Consider the current situation of coal resources exploitation in China, and then offerpolicies and advises on most superior mining scale of coal resources. These findings haveimportant reference value of the relevant government departments to develop a sustainabledevelopment strategy and related policies.