| In recent years,China's economy has made remarkable achievements,in the process of rapid economic development,monetary policy plays an irreplaceable role in support of the central plan to promote economic growth,especially the various use of unconventional monetary policy of the central banks since the financial crisis,it plays a pivotal role in the process of economic recovery,but its quantitative impact is not well known by researchers entirely,and the related research is also less.The frequent use of unconventional monetary policy after the economic crisis can not only affect the domestic economy,but also affect the economy of other countries through the spillover effect between countries,after the economic recovery,how to exit the early delivery of the amount of money smoothly is a problem.This paper examples the implementation of a variety of unconventional monetary policy after financial crisis,based on related economic knowledge,as well as liquidity traps?balance sheet recession and other unconventional monetary policy theory,uses the theoretical analysis and econometric analysis comprehensively,constructs the conventional monetary policy factor and the unconventional monetary policy factor to distinguish the role between the two types of monetary policy tools.Based on the TVP-FAVAR model,this paper constructs the economic activity factor and the price level factor of China and the United States,and uses the TVPSVAR model to measure the effect of the unconventional monetary policy in China and the spillover effect of China's unconventional monetary policy.Finally,we discuss the exit strategy of our unconventional monetary policy with the empirical analysis and the international experience of non-conventional monetary policy exit.This paper will help the monetary policy decision-making institutions to better control the role of unconventional monetary policy path and its strength to improve the policy of targeting.Specifically,the purpose of this paper is mainly reflected in the following points: First,combing clearly the concept of unconventional monetary policy.At present,the definition of unconventional monetary policy is not uniform,some scholars believe that unconventional monetary policy is mainly used to provide liquidity for the market,some scholars believe that unconventional monetary policy is mainly used to clear the transmission channels and provide liquidity,and also some scholars believe that the unconventional monetary policy is mainly used to restore the transmission media function of the financial market and to provide support for economic development in the case of limited use of conventional monetary policy.This paper mainly focuses on the various unconventional monetary policy instruments used in our country.Combining with the unconventional monetary policy tools and new characteristics of the post-financial crisis,we consider the effectiveness,the control mechanism of unconventional monetary policy and the practice of China's central bank,from the specific characteristics of unconventional monetary policy,that the interest rate space is limited or the role of traditional monetary policy is too large to take,by affecting the public expectations of future interest rates and the size or structure of corporate balance sheet to realize the propose of controlling and repairing market liquidity.Second,judging the effectiveness of our unconventional monetary policy tools.In the process of national central banks‘ use unconventional monetary policy tools to promote their own economic recovery,it accumulated a large number of operational data for scholars to use,the existing research is mainly concerned about the United States in the face of the lower limit of the problem of unconventional monetary policy operation effect,There is still the control space for China's policy interest rate,so we need to combine China's unconventional monetary policy operation data with China's unconventional monetary policy practice to determine its effectiveness,this paper attempts to build the unconventional monetary policy factors and the economic activity factor and the price level factor of strong representation under the new policy objectives,used to study the effectiveness of China's unconventional monetary policy tools,and shows how China can make full use of unconventional monetary policy tools combining with empirical research.Third,clarifying the control mechanism of our country's unconventional monetary policy.Unconventional monetary policy mainly boosts the economic recovery through the expected channels and balance sheet channels to regulate market liquidity.The existing research is mostly on the qualitative description of the unconventional monetary policy control mechanism in developed economies,and lacks a quantitative study on the control mechanism of our country's unconventional monetary policy.This paper attempts to combine the SVAR model with timevarying characteristics to study the direct and indirect spillover effects of monetary policy between China and the United States.And to pay attention to the influence of the interest rate adjustment on the interbank interest rate,which is intended to straighten out the transmission channels of our unconventional monetary policy and provide support for the effective use of the policy.Fourth,exploring China's unconventional monetary policy exit path.There are relatively few studies on the withdrawal of unconventional monetary policy.At present,only the experience of withdrawal from Japan and the United States is available for reference,and the exit environment of the two is different.The final results are also different and there is a large implementation environmental differences from our country's unconventional monetary policy,it can only be a certain reference.The implementation and exit of unconventional monetary policy both have the effect of international spillover.This influence has the characteristics of changing with time.It will not only affect the development path of other countries,but also weaken its policy effect in China.Combining with empirical research conclusions and empirical analysis to explore China's unconventional monetary policy exit timing and exit policy arrangements,it will be helpful to improve the central bank's control of unconventional monetary policy tools.Under the guidance of the above research objectives,this paper mainly includes six chapters: The first chapter briefly introduces the background and research significance and purpose of this paper,and combs the research progress at home and abroad of the unconventional monetary policy from the aspects of effectiveness,control mechanism,policy exit and international spillover effect,introduces the ideas and methods of this research,and points out the difficulty and main problems as well as main features and innovations of this paper,and clarifies the research direction.In the second chapter,on the basis of elaborating the monetary policy operation of our country and analyzing the monetary policy practice of different central banks,this paper defines several key concepts in this study.On this basis,it elaborates the theoretical basis of the unconventional monetary policy on the economy as well as the corresponding transmission channel and provides theoretical support for the following studies.The third chapter combs the operation course of four kinds of unconventional monetary policies such as Short-term Liquidity Operations,Standing Lending Facility,Medium-term Lending Facility and Pledged Supplementary Lending,and constructs China's conventional monetary policy factor and unconventional monetary policy factor.On the basis of the above,this paper also studies the effects of China's unconventional monetary policy on the credit market,financial markets,macroeconomic and other related variables of the structural effects,as well as the overall effect of the two potential factors on behave of China's overall economic development and price level,reflects the overall influence of China's unconventional monetary policy practice in the economic results from the structure and the overall perspective.The fourth chapter first analyzes the influencing factors of unconventional monetary policy transmission and the adjustment mechanism of liquidity adjustment,the borrowing convenience and the control mechanism of Pledged Supplementary Lending,and then analyzes the interest rate adjustment based on event research.The paper analyzes the international spillover effect of China's unconventional monetary policy based on the economic activity factor and the price level factor of China and the United States,and analyzes the international spillover effect of China's unconventional monetary policy,it aims to analyze the internal mechanism of China's unconventional monetary policy to regulate the economy.In the fifth chapter,based on the characteristics of our country's unconventional monetary policy,it defines the connotation of its policy exit.Combining with the analysis of the reasons of unconventional monetary policy exit and the practical experience at home and abroad,this paper combs the exit target and exit timing of China's unconventional monetary policy.This paper will analyze the exit strategy for China's unconventional monetary policy from several aspects of the time rhythm,the policy coordination at home and broad and the public communication and also will provide practical reference for the implementation of China's unconventional monetary policy.The sixth chapter summarizes the conclusions of this paper,and gives policy suggestions from the aspects of the expected management of the unconventional monetary policy,the type of the term of the tool and the scope of policy operation,the policy coordination at home and abroad and the interest rate ceiling function,aiming to improve the effectiveness of our country's unconventional monetary policy operation,and finally pointed out the shortcomings of China's unconventional monetary policy research and the direction of further study.Combined with theoretical analysis and empirical research,based on the research framework of the effectiveness,regulatory mechanism and exit strategy of China's unconventional monetary policy instruments,the main conclusions are as follows:(1)Unconventional monetary policy has a structural impact on China's credit markets,financial markets and macroeconomic variables.In the credit market,the impact of unconventional monetary policy is only prominent for the balance of RMB loans,the size of social financing and the central parity of RMB against the US dollar.In the financial markets,it only influence the Shanghai Composite Index and the total assets of the insurance industry significantly.In the macroeconomic context,it only affects the trend of changes of gross domestic product.From the reflection of the three types of variables,only part of the variables' reaction is obvious,it further confirms that unconventional monetary policy mainly plays important role through the structural impact of the various sectors of the national economy.(2)The influence of unconventional monetary policy on China's price level and economic activity is characterized by time-varying characteristics.First,the impact of the forward unconventional monetary policy on the price level is positive,in the sample range,its initial impact becomes small from large and gradually increase,its initial impact on economic activity is positive,and the positive effect is gradually reduced,and eventually it becomes to a negative impact,and in the sample interval,the extent of its negative impact is shrinking.From the selected three points of the impulse response map we can see that the impact of unconventional monetary policy on China's price level has been strengthened over time,and the impact on economic activity has been weakened,indicating that the unconventional monetary policy is more conducive to price control comparing with the economic growth.(3)The standing loan to facilitate the operation of interest rate adjustment of the People's Bank can effectively affect the interbank interest rate,change the cost of social financing,in which the expectation plays an important role in the regulation effect.In the process of the two adjusting of the interest rate,the effect of easing monetary policy operation in the beginning of 2016 is less than the tightened policy in beginning of 2017.The main reason is whether the corresponding public expectation has formed before the policy is adjusted.Since the public has relaxed expectations before lowering the standing interest rate of borrowing in early 2016,the early reaction of the market participants has led to the relatively small impact of the policy itself on economic variables.At the beginning of 2017,the increase in the active lending rate was relatively unfavorable,leading to a large change in economic variables.From the directions of the two actions,the adjustment of the operating profit rate of the two banks has led to the change of the interbank interest rate,which has effectively changed the borrowing cost of commercial banks.(4)China's unconventional monetary policy operation has a time-varying spillover effect on US economic activity and price level,while the impact on US federal funds rate is not.A country's monetary policy can not only affect other countries' economic activity and price level to make they adjust the monetary policy,but also can affect the expectations of other countries' economic activities and price level,then directly lead to other countries adjustment monetary policy.By focusing on the impact of China's unconventional monetary policy on US variables,it is found that the impact is increasing from 2014 to 2016,the effect of the duration of the federal funds is more obvious,but the impact of the trend in the interval is relatively stable,the time-varying characteristics are not obvious,but the overall impact is more significant,further illustrates the reality of spillover effect between China and US and the need for international coordination of monetary policy.(5)The withdrawal effect of our unconventional monetary policy mainly depends on the rationality of the term structure of liquidity and the continuity and term structure of the new liquidity after the expiry.First,it is need to rationally design the scale of the use of unconventional monetary policy instruments in order to achieve the purpose of repairing market liquidity and providing stable capital flows for the market,the unconventional monetary policy can achieve natural withdrawal after the market achieve steady recovery.Second,in the case of the market still need liquidity,to ensure the continuity of funds,it is necessary to properly arrange the capital follow before the tool expires,and determine the exit timing of unconventional monetary policy to end the operation according to the macroeconomic objectives and the main monitoring variables.In both cases,the withdrawal of unconventional monetary policies will help maintain market liquidity stability and the pre-effect of unconventional monetary policy.(6)China's unconventional monetary policy is suitable for the way of gradual withdrawal.This paper argues that the withdrawal of unconventional monetary policy includes gradual weakening and withdrawal,the process of gradual weakening is to stop the expansion of the central bank's balance sheet,and the process of withdrawal is to adjust the structure of the central bank's balance sheet to realize the unconventional monetary policy tools exit and resume regular monetary policy operations.In the exit process,in order to avoid the volatility of market liquidity,the first is to choose individual areas for pilot operations,and then gradually expand the scope of tightening,followed by leadership speech,central bank announcement,etc.to develop market expectations to strengthen the public understand,to achieve a smooth transition from unconventional monetary policy to conventional monetary policy.In addition,China's unconventional monetary policy tools are mostly issued by mortgage or pledge,in the natural process of withdraw,it is need to gradually reduce the amount of new liquidity,as far as possible to reduce the relatively short term policy operation,and gradually extend the operation of the overall period,followed by long-term unconventional monetary policy operation expires,the progressive realization of its complete exit.The innovation of this paper is mainly embodied in the following three aspects:(1)It is the comprehensive study around our country's unconventional monetary policy operation from the effectiveness,regulatory mechanism and exit path.The subject of the existing literature is mainly on the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy in developed countries,especially on the quantitative easing and forward-looking guidelines,based on less regulation of monetary policy out of practice,the literature on the regulatory mechanism is relatively small,and the corresponding study of exit is even less.Because China's unconventional monetary policy operation is different from the developed countries',the conclusions of developed countries' unconventional monetary policy does not apply to China,but the comprehensive study of China's has not yet appeared,this article is th first comprehensive analysis of China's unconventional monetary policy tools from the effectiveness,regulatory mechanisms and exit path,it is helpful to the central bank' effective control of these new tools.(2)It is the time to construct an unconventional monetary policy factor based on China's economic variables,in the use of conventional monetary policy and unconventional monetary policy at the same time,after effectively distinguish between the two operations,it is simple to study the effect of the unconventional monetary policy.Since 2013,the central bank continue to use the traditional rate cut and other tools to increase market liquidity,and use a variety of unconventional monetary policy tools to adjust the market liquidity,making it difficult to separate the study of unconventional monetary policy.The unconventional monetary policy factors based on the change of economic variables provide a new perspective for carrying out relevant research.(3)Based on the characteristics of unconventional monetary policy in China,this paper defines the connotation of the withdrawal of unconventional monetary policy,and thinks that the withdrawal of the extraordinary monetary policy includes the gradual weakening and withdrawal,gives the choice of our country's unconventional monetary policy exit policy on this basis.During the financial crisis,the adjustment of short-term interest rates is insteded by unconventional monetary policy instruments,resulting in the repeated expansion of the central bank's balance sheet,the withdrawal of unconventional monetary policy helps restore the central regulatory position of short-term interest rates,and policy gradually return to the neutral process,the precise definition of its withdrawal connotation is helpful to understand its exit effect,to maintain the stability of exit process.In the specific exit process,grasp the timing of the exit,do a good job at home and abroad policy coordination and communication with the public,it is useful to achieve the smooth withdrawal of China's unconventional monetary policy.Systematic research on unconventional monetary policy is an extremely complex task,and the research in this area is still at an early stage.In the future,if the data of the unconventional monetary policy is sufficient,it can increase the quantitative study of the withdrawal of unconventional monetary policy,further clarify the application conditions of unconventional monetary policy tools,analyze China's unconventional monetary policy from more perspective,and construct system policy analysis framework. |
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