Economic Effects Of Urbanization In China From The Perspective Of Spatial Spillovers

In the new century urbanization strategy has risen to national strategy.Urbanization undertook a number of missions of China's economic development.The influence of urbanization on China's economic development is extensive and far-reaching.Taking the road of urbanization with Chinese characteristics and giving full play to the leading role of urbanization to economic development is our national policy.In the process of urbanization in China,the regions are interrelated and interact with each other.But most of the literature about the urbanization and its economic effect did not consider the spatial factors,ignoring the spatial spillover effects of urbanization.IN this paper,we study the different economic effects of urbanization from the perspective of spatial spillover and enrich the study on the economic effects of urbanization.To measure the level of urbanization development,this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system from four different dimension(population development,spatial carrying capacity,economic foundation and social function),which lay the foundation for the follow-up analysis of the economic effects of urbanization.The empirical analysis is based on exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial econometric model.This paper studies the spatial pattern of urbanization,the economic growth effect of urbanization,the industrial upgrading effect of urbanization and the influence of urbanization on the income gap between urban and rural areas,so as to provide reference for the formulation of national policies.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows.Firstly,there are spatial autocorrelation,convergence and spatial effect in the process of urbanization in china.There is a positive spatial correlation in urbanization,that is,the phenomenon of high value agglomeration and low value agglomeration.The high value agglomeration phenomenon of urbanization mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas and some central areas.Low value agglomeration mainly occurs in the central and Western regions.However,in recent years,the central and western regions have been divided,and some central provinces have been separated from the "low-low" type,which has broken the phenomenon of low value agglomeration in the central and Western regions.In the aspect of Convergence,urbanization rate continues to converge in the nationwide.The eastern region is particularly significant.There are only two convergence club(East and Midwest).The central region began to differentiate gradually with the western region after 2007.After the implementation of the new urbanization strategy in 2007,the convergence rate of China's urbanization process significantly accelerated.In the aspect of spatial effect,the process of urbanization in our province is interactive.From the perspective of exploratory spatial analysis,the province with positive spillover effect are basically the eastern provinces.The representative areas are Shanghai,Beijing,Tianjin,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shandong.The provinces with negative spillover effect are all eastern provinces.The representative provinces are Qinghai,Guizhou,Yunnan and Guangxi,but the number is decreasing year by year.The positive spillover effect of the central region is increasing slowly.The representative areas are Henan and Hubei.Secondly,the economic growth effect of urbanization needs to be discussed separately.Urbanization has a positive effect on local economic growth.The spillover effect of urbanization on the economic growth in other regions can be positive or negative,while the negative spillover effect is more significant.The overall effect of urbanization on economic growth cannot be directly judged.The empirical results are in line with the stage of urbanization in China,most of the provinces in China are still in the stage of rapid urbanization.Provinces are mainly competitive."Cluster effect" is greater than "trickle-own effect" in the uranization process.Provinces have a siphon effect on the surrounding areas and inhibit the development of the surrounding areas In the aspect of direct spillover effect,all factors except population and land urbanization factor have positive effect on economic growth.In the aspect of indirect spillover effect,all urbanization factors have a positive effect on economic growth and passed through 1% significant test.And the indirect spillover effect of science and education urbanization factor is the most significant.In general,when analyzing the effect of urbanization on economic growth,ignoring the spillover effect of urbanization will underestimate the role of urbanization.Thirdly,this paper verifies some conjecture of the relation between the urbanization and the urban-rural income gap and draws some new conclusion.Spatial econometric results show that the reduction effect of urbanization on the urbanrural income gap is continuously and significantly,inverted U relationship between urbanization and urban-rural gap is mainly reflected in the indirect spillover effect.in the process of urbanization,when the urbanization level is low,urbanization have a negative spillover effect on the urban-rural income gap and extend the urban-rural income gap.With the improvement of urbanization,urbanization has positive spillover effects on the urban-rural income gap in other areas.This is related to the law of population urbanization.When the level of urbanization is low,the city prefer to attract the rural residents of the province.And the city has a significant spillover effect on other areas after the urbanization level reaches a certain level.In the aspect of different dimensions of urbanization,each factor is different.The urbanization of life style has no significant effect on the urban-rural income gap and has a positive indirect spillover effect on the urban-rural income gap.The urbanization of science and education has a negative effect on the urban-rural income gap,and the indirect spillover effect also has a negative effect,which has a great relationship with the urban education funding policy.In addition,the rural residents with good education and scientific knowledge are also inclined to migrate to cities and towns,which will expand the urban-rural income gap from the angle of Statistics.Population and land urbanization factor has a significant effect on the urban-rural income gap from the direct spillover effect,indirect spillover effect and total effect.The influence of industry urbanization factor on the urban-rural income gap cannot be determined,but industry urbanization factor can narrow the urban-rural income gap in other area,which also shows that a large number of rural labor flow across the province.Generally speaking,industrial urbanization reduces the urban-rural income gap.The non-agricultural industry has absorbed a large number of rural labor force and improved the per capita net income in rural areas.Fourthly,from the perspective of spatial spillover,this paper proves that urbanization contributes to the upgrading of industrial structure.Local urbanization will contribute to the upgrading of the local industry,while hindering industrial upgrading of other area.The possible reason is that the competition among provinces is greater than the cooperation in the fast urbanization stage,and the local government game may exacerbate competition.Without considering the spatial factors,the classical econometric model shows that the urbanization has significant effect on upgrading the industrial structure.Therefore,ignoring the spatial factors will affect the accuracy of the estimation.At this stage,it is urgent to promote regional cooperation especially between neighboring provinces.Different dimensions of urbanization have different effects.Life style urbanization mainly promote local industrial upgrading by impacting the consumption structure and infrastructure construction in the region,But it has a negative impact on the upgrading of industrial structure in other regions.In general,the urbanization of lifestyle promotes the upgrading of regional industrial structureThe urbanization of science and education has no significant effect on local industrial upgrading.Thanks to the mobility of technology resources and human capital,the urbanization of science and education is conducive to the promotion of industrial upgrading in the surrounding areas.Generally speaking,the urbanization of science and education has a positive effect on the upgrading of China's industrial structure.The population and land urbanization promotes the local industry upgrading,but the promotion of industry upgrading is not significant when it comes to other area.Population and land urbanization promote industrial upgrading from the overall effect.Population and land urbanization provides land resources and labor reserve for the upgrading of the industrial structure,providing the material basis and the elements of security for industrial upgrading.Population agglomeration is the basic driving force of industrial structure evolution in the process of urbanization.The innovation of this paper lies in:Firstly,the innovation of research perspective.There are many literatures about the effect of urbanization on economic development.However,most of them are based on spatial heterogeneity,ignoring the reality of spatial heterogeneity and the impact of spatial spillover.This paper studies the economic effects of urbanization from the perspective of spatial spillover.In this paper,the interaction between regions is introduced into the analytical framework through the spatial Durbin model.The spatial spillover effect is decomposed by the partial differential method of spatial regression model.In this method,the spatial spillover effects of the explanatory variables on the explanatory variables are divided into direct effects,indirect effects and total effects.Secondly,it has been found that the different economic effects of urbanization through the empirical analysis.Spatial econometric results show that the reduction effect of urbanization on the urban-rural income gap is continuously and significantly,inverted U relationship between urbanization and urban-rural gap is mainly reflected in the indirect spillover effect.in the process of urbanization,when the urbanization level is low,urbanization have a negative spillover effect on the urban-rural income gap and extend the urban-rural income gap.According to the literature,there is no literature on the spillover effects of urbanization on the industrial structure.in the sixth chapter,we find that urbanization has negative spillover effect on the upgrading of industrial structure in other regions.The empirical results show that the estimation of the effect of industrial structure upgrading is not accurate after neglecting the spatial factors.