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Research On Co-evolution Mechanism And Path In China's Power System Under The Background Of Transition

Posted on:2018-07-19Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y NieFull Text:PDF
GTID:1319330566952271Subject:Management Science and Engineering
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The reform of global energy system has greatly promoted the development of future intelligent power system,whose intelligent evolution and sustainable transition attracts much concern as the mainstay of the national development.However,the power system is bound to undergo a long evolutionary process that involves not only technological changes,but also government regulations,public habits,social development,industry regulations,infrastructure replacement and cultural changes on account of its own complexity.Under the influence of the above factors,the power system will enter a coordination state so as to promote the transformation of new system if the evolution behavior of each actor keeps mutual feedback and reaches a matching state.Therefore,the “coordination” is a key indicator to measure the evolution degree of power system.Nonetheless,during the evolution process,the actors will create certain influences,even driving forces or restraining forces,because of their own different development ratios and the action range of evolutionary driving factors,which will result in non-coordination problems.In this paper,by determining the factors affecting the co-evolution of power system and analyzing the function mechanism,we constructed the concept framework and put forward the path planning of co-evolution in power system,aiming to solve the non-coordination problem and further to improve the evolution capacity of power system.So far,there is not a detailed framework to be used to describe the mechanism of co-evolution of power system and also not a valid index to be used to measure the co-evolution degree in different stages of the power system.Therefore,this paper initially extracted 14 evolutionary actors,6 relationship between them and 4 driving factors,and constructed a conceptual model in order to clarify the mechanism of power system co-evolution based on the theory of socio-technical system transition,the research results and power system reform documents.The models include two dimensions,four stages and five paths that reflect the degree of co-evolution.Then,based on the Dissipative structure and the Brusselator model,we constructed the co-evolution entropy which can be used to evaluate the co-evolution degree and use positive entropy and negative entropy to reflect the co-evolution degree for further revealing the development law of co-evolution in the power system.Then,we adopted the social network analysis method and entropy weight method to analyse the change law of the actors' co-evolution ability and to reveal the changes of evolutionarydriving factors in the different stages of power system evolution for further enriching the co-evolution mechanism framework of power system.After that,in view of the power system coordination problems between the source-grid,the method of evolutionary game theory was used to complete the evolution game equation between power grid and renewable energy power generation enterprises.Based on the equation,we discovered dynamic equilibrium of co-evolution and put forward some advice on the co-evolution path of source-grid.For co-evolution between “Stortage-Grid”,we built the appraisal model of distributed photovoltaic micro net cost and put forward evolutionary path to promote the coordinated development of energy storage side by comparing the users' electricity purchasing cost with/without energy storage device.Combined with local intelligent power system construction program in the Zhalute in Inner Mongolia,we analyze the power “Source-Load-Stortage” co-evolution and finally reveal the co-evolution path between “Source-Grid-Load-Storage” of power grid.In conclusion,according to the existing problems of power system co-evolution,the paper proposes some policy suggestions to improve the co-evolution effects of the power system to achieve the goal of comprehensively advancing the co-evolution of the power system.The main conclusions of this paper are summarized as follows:(1)The evolution of power system is not only reflected in the interaction between power generation,transmission and distribution terminals and users' side,but also influenced by macro environment and micro-niche.According to China power events,as well as policies and regulations of the power industry,this paper divided the first three evolution stages of the Chinese power system,construction,marketization reform and deepening reform of power system.Then,we constructed the basic framework of power system evolution analysis.Results show that the macroscopic environment puts more pressure on the transformation of power system,and the development of micro-niche level becomes more active.(2)This study extracted 14 evolutionary actors,6 relationship between them and the main 4 driving factors,and constructed a conceptual model to analyze the mechanism of power system co-evolution.The co-evolution ability of evolutionary actors and collaborative action forces of the driving factors advance the evolution of the system by mutual influence.Therefore,according to these two dimensions,we divided into four stages of the power system,the initial stage,driven evolutionary stage,suppressed co-evolution stage and co-evolution stage.Finally,we constructeddynamic co-evolution path of power system and put forward the co-evolution mechanism in stages.(3)Based on the theory of Dissipation and Brusselator model,this paper established a new evaluation index of power system to evaluate the co-evolution degree: co-evolution entropy,bigger internal friction is subject to positive entropy actors and negative entropy actors improve the collaborative performance of system.Next,the evolutionary co-entropy was applied to the three evolutionary stages of China's power system to evaluate the co-evolution effects of China's power system is in stages and to reveal the development rules of co-evolution.Results show that based on the government-led system,the macro environment entropy value of China's power system remains negative,and the evolution of the power system is effectively coordinated.Under the policy promotion,the entropy change of the niche level is large,but it is basically negative.Because of the path dependence effects,the entropy value is positive and affects the co-evolution of power system.(4)In view of the co-evolution problem of “Source-Grid-Load-Stortage” in power system,we built a co-evolution game model between power grid and renewable energy generation enterprises in the “Source-Grid” from the perspective of improving the co-evolution path.After calculation,we found that if government increases the penalties on those enterprises who did not to actively participate in power system co-evolution strategy,or reduces the investment cost of power system co-evolution strategy,it will effectively promote co-evolution between grid and renewable energy power generation enterprises.Then,we established a balance cost model of distributed photovoltaic micro power grid in “Stortage-Grid” co-evolution to conduct comparative analysis on the influence of energy storage device on electricity purchasing cost.We found that the energy storage device can effectively improve the stability of the whole system,but the high cost has become the key factors that limit its development(electricity purchasing cost is 2237.5 yuan without energy storage,less than 2033.6+600 yuan with energy storage in which 600 yuan is the depreciation).Therefore,increasing scientific and technological innovation can promote the power system co-evolution.Based on the Source-Load-Storage co-evolution,we analyzed the evolution process of complementary and integrated optimization of the regional power grid in the Zhalute,and found out that complementary multi-source,stable load and coordinated energy storage can effectively solve the “Source-Load-Stortage”co-evolution problem.In view of the above research,we put forward several policysuggestions to promote the co-evolution of power system.
Keywords/Search Tags:socio-technical system transition theory, power system, co-evolution, co-evolution entropy, co-evolution path
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