Monitoring And Simulation Of Land Use And Land Cover Changes In The Southeastern Region Of Bangladesh

Land use and land cover(LULC)change is crucial in providing a greater understanding of increased human-environment interactions,mutual impacts on climatic and environmental systems,to enable the implementation of appropriate environmental management practices.The LULC is dynamic and changes in it have important environmental and socio-economic consequences.The changing climate and its multifaceted,multi-scaled ramifications pose tremendous challenges.However,this thesis provides a systematic monitoring and simulation of land use and cover changing status,patterns and future prediction with multi-faced driving actors in the southeastern region of Bangladesh.The study therefore highlighted the four interconnected scientific issues as well of identified the lower inconsistent land cover products,evaluated the existing trends of land use/cover change(LUCC),geospatial relationship status in the external variable effects over surface dynamics,and a scenario simulation and prediction of future land use through modeling for sustainable land management and planning.The high-quality land cover products are important for monitoring and analyzing LUCC as well as global environmental changes study.Therefore,this study primarily accessed the areal and spatial inconsistencies in the four most recent multi-resources land cover products in a complex manner using the common classification systems of IGBP-17,IGBP-9,IPCC-5 and TC(vegetation,wetlands and others only).High temporal and multi-validated land cover products of the MODISLC,GlobeLand30,FROM-GLC and Landsat TM/ETM+satellite imageries have used as datasets.Based on inconsistencies and multi temporal land cover datasets,a synthesis of LUCC study has triggered out from 2001 to 2017 in the southeastern region of Bangladesh.The overall areal and spatial inconsistencies decreased from high to low levels of aggregation (IGBP-17 to TC),indicating that the inconsistencies are not only influenced by the level of thematic detail and landscape complexity but also related to the conversion uncertainties.Overall,areal inconsistency in the comparison of the FROM-GLC and GlobeLand30 datasets was the smallest among the six pairs,while,the pair of MODISLC and Landsat imagery(LULC class)observed the highest inconsistencies.However,based on overall lower inconsistencies classification system(IGBP-9),the synthetic LUCC dynamics at the study area have assessed.During the period of study,the areal distribution of forest cover,built-up areas and water were found increased annually by 0.4%,1.32%,and 0.3%respectively,while the croplands and wetlands were respectively decreased by 0.5%and 0.3%.The dynamic changes of croplands,forest,and artificial surface were identified the prime cyclic land cover changes.Land surface temperature(LST)can significantly alter seasonal vegetation phenology,which in turn affects the global and regional energy balance.These are the most important parameters of surface-atmosphere interactions and climate change.Methods for retrieving LSTs from satellite remote-sensing data are beneficial for modeling hydrological,ecological,agricultural and meteorological processes on the Earth's surface.Therefore,later part of this study was assessed the geospatial patterns of LST using correlations of the seasonally integrated normalized difference vegetation index(SINDVI)in the southeastern region of Bangladesh from 2001 to 2016.Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)time series datasets for LST and SINDVI used for estimations in this part of study.From 2001 to 2016,the MODIS-based land surface temperature in the southeastern region of Bangladesh was found to have gently increased by 0.2~0C(R~2=0.030),while the seasonally integrated normalized difference vegetation index also increased by 0.43(R~2=0.268).The interannual average LSTs mostly increased across the study areas,except in some coastal plain and tidal floodplain areas of the study.However,the SINDVI increased in the floodplain and coastal plain regions,except for in hilly areas.Physiographically,the study area is a combination of low lying alluvial floodplains,river basin wetlands,tidal floodplains,tertiary hills,terraced lands and coastal plains in nature.The hilly areas mostly covered by dense forests,with the exception of agricultural areas.The impacts of increased LSTs inversely correlated for the hilly areas and areas with forest coverage;LSTs conversely correlated for the floodplain region,and tree cover outside of the forest and agricultural crops.Simulating LUCC is essential in analyzing and predicting land use requirements for guiding reasonable land use planning and management.Regarding the important role of the geographical location factors,climatic conditions and local resident's interactions with nature in driving process of LUCC,finally,this study investigated and simulated land use changes in the southeastern region of Bangladesh combined with numerical land demand prediction and spatial land allocation simulation using the CLUE-S model.The identified lowest inconsistent land cover products of the Finer Resolution Observation and Monitoring Global Land Cover(FROM-GLC)data of the year 2010,2015 and 2017 actual land-use used as datasets to monitor and quantify the simulation and prediction of the future land cover.The simulated maps for 2015 and 2017 have confirmed to be generally accurate with the actual land use of the respective year using an error matrix and Kappa indices to ensure model simulation success.The results indicated an overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient of 62.38%and 0.6101 for the year2015 and 71.64%and 0.7106 for the year 2017 respectively.Having the model properly validated,the land use scenarios for the southeastern region of Bangladesh in between2017 and 2025 predicted assuming three modes of development as of following existing trends,under a strict forest protection,and under a strict croplands protection.The simulations suggested that under either mode,built-up areas would expand at the expense of land for other uses.This expansion predicted to dominate the land-use conversions between 2017 and 2025,and expected to accompany by an extensive loss of forest in hilly areas,and water and croplands in the flat areas in the southeastern region of Bangladesh.The rate of built-up expansion might control under strict forestland protection,or under a strict croplands protection or as well as both in implementations.The key susceptible to land-use changes were found to be located at the upper and middle Meghna river floodplain in Brahmanbaria and Cumilla districts,coastal belt areas for tidal floodplain region in Noakhali and Feni districts,and lower coastal plain region in Chattogram and Cox'sBazar districts.In addition,the conversion trends of grasslands,wetlands and others land use in the simulation processes were more subtle.Therefore,spatial distributions of croplands in the alluvial floodplain,tidal floodplain and coastal plain areas and distributions of forest cover in the hilly areas in the southeastern region of Bangladesh should especially protected under ecological conservation and sustainable land management policy.Therefore,this research would be helpful in providing training areas for the producer of land cover products,for the protection and restoration of the natural environment and as well as scientific information derived from simulations revealed the model approach is similarly suitable in formulating relevant land use policies.