Study On Modelling And Applications Of China Renewable Energy Development Support Policies

As non-hydro renewable energy power,including PV and wind power,is achieving grid parity,the major problems in developing it in China become low market acceptance and subsidy-dependence business model.Targeted at these problems,this thesis proposes specific industrial policiesfor centralized renewable energy and marketing policies for the distributed respectively,and a software platform which integrats models for analyzing these renewable energy development support policies in China.The models have been applied to analyze the effects and mechanisms of these polices.And policy recommendations for incentiving renewable energy development are systematically proposed according to the results.The contributions on modeling and application of renewable energy policies in this thesis includes the following four parts:(1)To gurantee the implementation of Renewable Portfolio Standards(RPS),this thesis built an RPS targets allocation model based on optimization theory.The performance on equity-economy-energy-environment and mechanism of provincial RPS targets allocation are analyzed.And the tradeoff relationship between equity and efficiency are uncovered.(2)To reduce the social economic cost by Tradable Green Certificate(TGC)mechanism without increasing inequity,this thesis built a multi-region multi-market equilibrium model based on game theory.The mechanism of how TGC trade affects the equity is analyzed.And the equity and efficiency characters of corrective regulations on TGC trade are uncovered.(3)To innovate profit models of distributed PV,this thesis built a Peer to Peer(P2P)energy sharing simulation model based on evolutionary game theory.The operation mechanism of sharing is analyzed,and the advantages of energy sharing in economy,equity,and robustness are uncovered.(4)To cope with the irrational factors which hinder the diffusion of distributed PV,this thesis built a distributed PV market diffusion model.The pathway of anecdotal information dissemination affecting the diffusion distributed PV is analyzed.The impacts of corresponding nudge interventions on the distributed PV diffusion as well as the mechanism are uncovered.According to above study,this thesis proposes following policy opinions:(1)Implementing RPS can promote the development of renewable energy.The government should implement RPS policy as soon as possible and leave the equity issue to TGC market,rather than spend too much time and administrative costs on adjusting RPS targets allocation scheme.(2)In order to promote the sustainable development of distributed renewable energy,government can implement voluntary P2 P energy sharing,taking the place of feed-in tariff.Besides,it is necessary to implement nudge interventions such as information campaigns and information screening to protect the diffusion of distributed renewable energy in the early stage of distributed PV market.