Carbon Emission Transfer Measurement And Economic Spillover Effect Analysis Based On MRIO Model And GWR Model

In the context of increasingly severe climate change and the development of a global low-carbon economy,carbon emissions have become a concern in the political,economic,and environmental fields at home and abroad.As the world's largest carbon emitter,China's own carbon emissions have become a hot spot of global concern.China is also facing significant pressure to reduce carbon emissions and combat climate change.Energy conservation and emission reduction is not only an inherent requirement for the transformation of China's own economic development mode,but also a responsibility that China should undertake to cope with global climate change.In order to achieve the strategic goal of sustainable development,China must face the problem of controlling the increase of carbon emissions,and it is necessary to clarify the carbon emission reduction responsibilities of each province,city and city.In the allocation of responsibility for carbon emission reduction,due to the continuous expansion of China's inter-provincial trade,on the one hand,we need to consider the total carbon emissions of various inter-provincial regions,and at the same time,must also be due to inter-provincial inter-regional trade.The amount of carbon emissions transferred is taken into account.Based on the research progress at home and abroad,this paper measures and analyzes the inter-provincial carbon emission transfer of 30 provinces and autonomous regions(cities)in China,and further analyzes the spatial distribution of carbon emission transfer in China's inter-provincial regions and the inter-provincial Economic spillover effects of regional carbon emissions transfers.First of all,this paper uses the multi-regional input-output model(MRIO)of 30 departments of 30 provinces and autonomous regions(municipalities)discontinued in 2007-2012 to generate total carbon emissions from trades between provinces in the corresponding years of China.The total amount of carbon emissions and the corresponding carbon emission shifts of the 27 sectors are measured.The quantitative description analyzes the scale of carbon emission transfer in the corresponding years in China's inter-provincial regions and the inter-provincial inter-regional carbon emissions transfer in the corresponding years.The difference between the total amount and the difference between the carbon emission components of the corresponding sector in the corresponding year.The results show that there is a significant difference between the total amount of carbon emissions in China's inter-provincial regions.The carbon emission in the regions with abundant energy resources is greater than the carbon emissions,and the carbon emissions in developed regions are greater than carbon.The amount of emissions transferred.The reason for this may be that there are obvious differences in energy resources,economic development,and industrial structure in various inter-provincial regions of China.Therefore,at present,there are economically developed regions in China's inter-provincial regions.Carbon emission shifts in resource-rich areas and underdeveloped regions.Secondly,this paper constructs a spatial weight matrix that conforms to China's current situation by using the unique geographical proximity characteristics of different inter-provincial regions in China.The index is used to analyze and discuss the spatial distribution of carbon emission transfer in China's inter-provincial regions.It shows that in 2007 China's inter-provincial regional carbon emissions transfer and carbon emissions index were 0.329 and 0.225 respectively;in 2010 China's inter-provincial regional carbon emissions transfer and carbon emissions index were 0.304 and 0.275 respectively;China's inter-provincial regional carbon emissions transfer and carbon emissions index are 0.267 and 0.219,respectively.It shows that China's inter-provincial regional carbon emission transfer has a certain spatial agglomeration characteristics,and it can be seen that from 2007 to 2012,China's inter-provincial region's carbon emission index has gradually decreased,and carbon emissions have been transferred.The index increases first and then decreases.The carbon emissions transfer in China's inter-provincial regions is mainly represented by the L-L model(the low-carbon emission transfer area is surrounded by the low-carbon emission transfer area)and the H-H mode(the high-carbon emission transfer area is surrounded by the high-carbon emission transfer area).Finally,this paper uses the geographically weighted regression model to analyze the economic spillover effects of carbon emissions transfer in China's inter-provincial regions.The results show that the economic spillover effect of China's inter-provincial regional carbon emissions is stronger than that of carbon emissions.Moreover,with the passage of time,the positive economic spillover effect of carbon emissions from China's inter-provincial regions has weakened,while the negative spillover effect of carbon emissions has increased.Finally,based on the research results,the possible causes of the results are analyzed.The innovation of this paper is:this paper uses the newly released emission factor data to measure the carbon emission transfer volume of 30 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)in China from 2007 to 2012,and analyzes the inter-provincial differences and industry differences of carbon emission transfer.This paper analyzes the economic spillover effects of carbon emissions transfer from 2007 to 2012 by geographically weighted regression,and compares the results of different years for discussion.